Sensitivity analysis of the asymptotic behavior of a model for the environmental movement of radionuclides

The asymptotic behavior of a linear compartment model for the environmental movement of radionuclides is investigated. Here, the expression asymptotic behavior is used to designate the behavior of q(t) as t → ∞, where q is the solution of a vector differential equation of the form dq/dt = h + Kq. The asymptotic behavior of such equations is described. For the model and conditions under consideration, each element of q converges monotonically to a steady-state value. A hydrologic system is defined and used to illustrate this behavior. An approach to sensitivity analysis employing Latin hypercube sampling, rank transformations and stepwise regression is presented and then applied to this system. A total of 20 independent variables is introduced and the following dependent variables are investigated for the various components of the system: amount of radionuclide present at steady state. concentration of radionuclide at steady state, and time required to reach 90% of steady state. Finally, an application of asymptotic behavior in the analysis of a hypothetical site for the geologic isolation of high-level radioactive waste is described and a brief discussion of differential sensitivity analysis is given.     

The relationship between diversity profiles,evenness and species richness based on partial ordering

Problems with the notion of evenness, such as ambiguity, proliferation of indices, choice of indices, etc. can be overcome by a more fundamental, mathematical approach. We show that the Lorenz curve is an adequate representation of evenness. The corresponding Lorenz order induces a partial order in the set of equivalent abundance vectors. Also diversity can adequately be studied through a partial order and represented by a curve derived from the classical Lorenz curve. This curve is known as the intrinsic diversity profile (or k-dominance curve) and was introduced by Patil and Taillie (1979) and Lambshead et al. (1981).     

Reassessment of the Ocean-To-Atmosphere Flux of Carbon Monoxide

Carbon monoxide (CO) in the surface sea waters is produced predominantly by photochemical processes, oxidized by micro-organisms and outgassed to the atmosphere. to assess carbon monoxide flux from the oceans to the atmosphere, the photochemical production and microbial oxidation of carbon monoxide in the oceanic mixed-layer was investigated during several oeanographic cruises and in the laboratory. the photoproduction rate of carbon monoxide was found to be well correlated to the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in coastal and open ocean surface waters. Taking a global average carbon monoxide production rate of 10 ± 2 nmole litre^-1 (mg DOC hr)^-1 in the surface open ocean water, and 25 ± 7 nmole litre^-1 (mg DOC hr)^-1 in coastal sea water, at cloud-free summer solar noon, the photochemical production of carbon monoxide in the global oceans is estimated to be at a rate of 1200 ± 200 Tg CO y^-1. the microbial carbon monoxide turnover time in the mixed-layer was observed to range from hours in a coastal estuary to 16 days in the Pacific along 1057deg; W in dark incubations. Natural sunlight can largely inhibit the microbial consumption of carbon monoxide in surface water. On a global scale, microbial consumption is responsible for the loss of less than 10% of photochemical produced carbon monoxide in the surface ocean. Field measurements have shown that the net transport of carbon monoxide from the euphotic zone to the underlying deeper ocean water is limited and that the overall life time in surface sea waters is less than 3-4 hours. When combined, these field measurements with the photoproduction and microbial consumption rates obtained, we estimate the oceanic flux to the atmosphere is about 1000 ± 200 Tg CO y^-1, which represents the largest single source of atmospheric carbon monoxide.     

A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Variable Irrigation District Action in Water Trading

Irrigation districts (IDs) in the American west are highly diverse in their economic attributes and local water scarcity circumstances. This diversity may affect reallocative action via water transactions as scarcity rises. The institutional background defining and constraining IDs is described here. For a Texas study region the progress of permanent water right transfers involving IDs is documented and examined. An econometric analysis of multiple decades of ID water transfer activities in the Lower Rio Grande Valley finds that IDs with larger initial water right holdings and higher populations in nearby cities are more likely to participate in agricultural‐to‐municipal water transfer activities. The findings suggest that consolidation of smaller water right holding IDs may be an avenue for quickening the pace of reallocation, especially in more populated areas.     

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical coastal embayment (Moreton Bay, Australia)

Surface water methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations and fluxes were investigated in two subtropical coastal embayments (Bramble Bay and Deception Bay, which are part of the greater Moreton Bay, Australia). Measurements were done at 23 stations in seven campaigns covering different seasons during 2010-2012. Water-air fluxes were estimated using the Thin Boundary Layer approach with a combination of wind and currents-based models for the estimation of the gas transfer velocities. The two bays were strong sources of both CH₄ and N₂O with no significant differences in the degree of saturation of both gases between them during all measurement campaigns. Both CH₄ and N₂O concentrations had strong temporal but minimal spatial variability in both bays. During the seven seasons, CH₄ varied between 500% and 4000% saturation while N₂O varied between 128 and 255% in the two bays. Average seasonal CH₄ fluxes for the two bays varied between 0.5 ± 0.2 and 6.0 ± 1.5 mg CH₄/(m²·day) while N₂O varied between 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg N₂O/(m²·day). Weighted emissions (t CO₂-e) were 63%-90% N₂O dominated implying that a reduction in N₂O inputs and/or nitrogen availability in the bays may significantly reduce the bays' greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Emissions data for tropical and subtropical systems is still scarce. This work found subtropical bays to be significant aquatic sources of both CH₄ and N₂O and puts the estimated fluxes into the global context with measurements done from other climatic regions.     

Identifying fecal sources in a selected catchment reach using multiple source-tracking tools

Given known limitations of current microbial source-tracking (MST) tools, emphasis on small, simple study areas may enhance interpretations of fecal contamination sources in streams. In this study, three MST tools-Escherichia coli repetitive element polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR), coliphage typing, and Bacteroidales 16S rDNA host-associated markers-were evaluated in a selected reach of Plum Creek in south-central Nebraska. Water-quality samples were collected from six sites. One reach was selected for MST evaluation based on observed patterns of E. coli contamination. Despite high E. coli concentrations, coliphages were detected only once among water samples, precluding their use as a MST tool in this setting. Rep-PCR classification of E. coli isolates from both water and sediment samples supported the hypothesis that cattle and wildlife were dominant sources of fecal contamination, with minor contributions by horses and humans. Conversely, neither ruminant nor human sources were detected by Bacteroidales markers in most water samples. In bed sediment, ruminant- and human-associated Bacteroidales markers were detected throughout the interval from 0 to 0.3 m, with detections independent of E. coli concentrations in the sediment. Although results by E. coli-based and Bacteroidales-based MST methods led to similar interpretations, detection of Bacteroidales markers in sediment more commonly than in water indicates that different tools to track fecal contamination (in this case, tools based on Bacteroidales DNA and E. coli isolates) may have varying relevance to the more specific goal of tracking the sources of E. coli in watersheds. This is the first report of simultaneous, toolbox approach application of a library-based and marker-based MST analyses to flowing surface water.