Identifying fecal sources in a selected catchment reach using multiple source-tracking tools

Given known limitations of current microbial source-tracking (MST) tools, emphasis on small, simple study areas may enhance interpretations of fecal contamination sources in streams. In this study, three MST tools-Escherichia coli repetitive element polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR), coliphage typing, and Bacteroidales 16S rDNA host-associated markers-were evaluated in a selected reach of Plum Creek in south-central Nebraska. Water-quality samples were collected from six sites. One reach was selected for MST evaluation based on observed patterns of E. coli contamination. Despite high E. coli concentrations, coliphages were detected only once among water samples, precluding their use as a MST tool in this setting. Rep-PCR classification of E. coli isolates from both water and sediment samples supported the hypothesis that cattle and wildlife were dominant sources of fecal contamination, with minor contributions by horses and humans. Conversely, neither ruminant nor human sources were detected by Bacteroidales markers in most water samples. In bed sediment, ruminant- and human-associated Bacteroidales markers were detected throughout the interval from 0 to 0.3 m, with detections independent of E. coli concentrations in the sediment. Although results by E. coli-based and Bacteroidales-based MST methods led to similar interpretations, detection of Bacteroidales markers in sediment more commonly than in water indicates that different tools to track fecal contamination (in this case, tools based on Bacteroidales DNA and E. coli isolates) may have varying relevance to the more specific goal of tracking the sources of E. coli in watersheds. This is the first report of simultaneous, toolbox approach application of a library-based and marker-based MST analyses to flowing surface water.     

The Annual Average: An Alternative to the Second Highest Value as a Measure of Air Quality

It is common practice to use the second highest value both in determining compliance with the once-per-year air quality standards (AQS) and as a measure of air quality in pollutant trend studies and rollback calculations. A study of the variation in the second highest 8 hr carbon monoxide concentration observed at the CAMP stations 1962-72 is presented. It is shown that, for a given annual average, the second highest value can differ by a factor of 2 due to random variation. The annual average is linearly related to the observed average of the second highest value and is shown to be a good predictor of the percent of time the carbon monoxide AQS is exceeded. It is concluded that the annual average, which is less variable and not as greatly influenced by erroneous measurements, is the preferred measure of air quality for trend studies and air quality projections.     

Application of non-linear automatic optimization techniques for calibration of HSPF.

Development of TMDLs (total maximum daily loads) is often facilitated by using the software system BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources). One of the key elements of BASINS is the watershed model HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) developed by USEPA. Calibration of HSPF is a very tedious and time consuming task, more than 100 parameters are involved in the calibration process. In the current research, three non-linear automatic optimization techniques are applied and compared, as well an efficient way to calibrate HSPF is suggested. Parameter optimization using local and global optimization techniques for the watershed model is discussed. Approaches to automatic calibration of HSPF using the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST (Parameter Estimation Tool) with its Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method, Random multiple Search Method (RSM), and Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) are presented. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and the most and the least sensitive parameters were identified. It was noted that sensitivity depends on number of adjustable parameters. As more parameters were optimized simultaneously--a wider range of parameter values can maintain the model in the calibrated state. Impact of GML, RSM, and SCE-UA variables on ability to find the global minimum of the objective function (OF) was studied and the best variables are suggested. All three methods proved to be more efficient than manual HSPF calibration. Optimization results obtained by these methods are very similar, although in most cases RSM outperforms GML and SCE-UA outperforms RSM. GML is a very fast method, it can perform as well as SCE-UA when the variables are properly adjusted, initial guess is good and insensitive parameters are eliminated from the optimization process. SCE-UA is very robust and convenient to use. Logical definition of key variables in most cases leads to the global minimum.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital nephrosis by in utero kidney biopsy

The diagnosis of congenital nephrosis is difficult during the antepartum period. The combination of an elevated amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein, a negative acetylcholinesterase, and a negative ultrasound examination is highly indicative of congenital nephrosis; however, these findings can also be associated with a normal gestation. This is the first report of pathologic confirmation of congenital nephrosis from an in utero fetal kidney biopsy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint application of an empirical and mechanistic model for regional lake acidification

The empirical direct distribution model for lake acidification is calibrated for use in an integrated assessment model which predicts the regional impact of an acid deposition control strategy. The calibration is based on the mechanistic Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). The models are applied jointly to a set of 33 statistically-selected lakes in the Adirondack region of New York. Calibration of the direct distribution model is based on a step-function application of acid deposition to MAGIC. Comparative evaluations of the resulting model predictions are made using historic deposition estimates and two alternative future deposition scenarios. The predictions of the direct distribution model match well the shapes and patterns of change of the regional distributions of ANC and pH predicted by MAGIC, the short- and medium-term dynamics of these changes, and the effect of including organic acids. However, small, long-term decreases in the fraction of incoming acid deposition neutralized by lakes and their watersheds predicted by MAGIC are not reproduced.     

Career success and personal failure experiences and Type A behaviour

This study examines the relationship of Type A behaviour to career experiences associated with feelings of personal failure (Korman and Korman, 1980). Seventy-five managers completed the Jenkins Activity Survey, a widely used paper-and-pencil index of Type A behaviour, and measures of various career experiences. The data provided concurrent validation of the Korman's model and also showed Type A behaviour to be significantly related to career outcomes reflecting disappointment, alienation and personal failure. A case is made for the inclusion of Type A in career research. Implications for careerists and their organizations are offered.     

Injuries causing death: Their nature,external causes,and associated diseases

This article provides national data on the types of injuries reported on death certificates, the external causes of these injuries, and diseases that are frequently reported with them. Injuries were a factor in 11 % (213,366 deaths) of the deaths to residents of the United States in 1978. Of 11 broad categories of injuries, three (fractures, sprains, strains, and dislocations, intracranial injuries, and adverse effects) were mentioned on almost 50,000 deaths each. There was considerable variation in the distribution of injury types by age, sex, and race. The most notable example was fractures of the lower limb which were mentioned on 29% of the deaths involving an injury to 65 + year olds but no less than 5% of such deaths for all other age groups. For white females, the percentage with a fracture of the lower limb was 23 % compared to 12 % overall. In 25 % of the deaths involving an injury, the immediate cause was a motor vehicle accident. In 51 %, the immediate cause of the injury was a non-motor-vehicle accident. In 73 % of the deaths involving non-motor-vehicle accidents, disease conditions as well as injuries were a factor; and, 69% of the time, the disease condition was actually the underlying cause of the death with the injury being a contributing factor or complication. For example, over 14,000 deaths in 1978 involved a circulatory condition as the underlying cause of death which was complicated by an accidental fracture, sprain, or dislocation. Although diseases more often assumed the role of the underlying cause of death, they were also a nonunderlying cause in 24,000 non-motor-vehicle accident deaths. Over 12,000 of such deaths involved circulatory diseases.