Space-time stick-breaking processes for small area disease cluster estimation

We propose a space-time stick-breaking process for the disease cluster estimation. The dependencies for spatial and temporal effects are introduced by using space-time covariate dependent kernel stick-breaking processes. We compared this model with the space-time standard random effect model by checking each model’s ability in terms of cluster detection of various shapes and sizes. This comparison was made for simulated data where the true risks were known. For the simulated data, we have observed that space-time stick-breaking process performs better in detecting medium- and high-risk clusters. For the real data, county specific low birth weight incidences for the state of South Carolina for the years 1997–2007, we have illustrated how the proposed model can be used to find grouping of counties of higher incidence rate.     

Emission strength validation using four-dimensional data assimilation: application to primary aerosol and precursors to ozone and secondary aerosol.

Three-dimensional air quality models (AQMs) represent the most powerful tool to follow the dynamics of air pollutants at urban and regional scales. Current AQMs can account for the complex interactions between gas-phase chemistry, aerosol growth, cloud and scavenging processes, and transport. However, errors in model applications still exist due in part to limitations in the models themselves and in part to uncertainties in model inputs. Four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) can be used as a top-down tool to validate several of the model inputs, including emissions inventories, based on ambient measurements. Previously, this FDDA technique was used to estimate adjustments in the strength and composition of emissions of gas-phase primary species and O3 precursors. In this paper, we present an extension to the FDDA technique to incorporate the analysis of particulate matter (PM) and its precursors. The FDDA approach consists of an iterative optimization procedure in which an AQM is coupled to an inverse model, and adjusting the emissions minimizes the difference between ambient measurements and model-derived concentrations. Here, the FDDA technique was applied to two episodes, with the modeling domain covering the eastern United States, to derive emission adjustments of domainwide sources of NO., volatile organic compounds (VOCs), CO, SO2, NH3, and fine organic aerosol emissions. Ambient measurements used include gas-phase inorganic and organic species and speciated fine PM. Results for the base-case inventories used here indicate that emissions of SO2 and CO appear to be estimated reasonably well (requiring minor revisions), while emissions of NOx, VOC, NH3, and organic PM with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) require more significant revision.     

Integrating Nonindigenous Aquatic Plant Control with Protection of Snail Kite Nests in Florida

The endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) feeds primarily on the freshwater apple snail (Pomacea paludosa) in Florida. The nonindigenous, floating water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes) impede kites from finding snails. Effective control of these aquatic plants in the littoral zone of central and south Florida lakes benefits kites by maintaining open foraging habitat. However, incidental herbicide spraying of nesting substrates result in nest collapse when kites breed in nonwoody, emergent plants [cattail (Typha spp.) and giant bulrush (Scirpus validus)] in the outer littoral zone during lower lake levels. Many endangered species recovery plans and their implementation have experienced problems due to inaction and/or noncooperation by various governmental agencies and their personnel. Herein, we describe the development and implementation of a buffer zone strategy to prevent secondary impacts from an aquatic plant control program to snail kites nesting on lakes in central and south Florida. A strategy was jointly developed by personnel of five state and federal agencies to control herbicide application near kite nesting areas during the normal breeding season. Although requiring various modifications during its implementation, this cooperative effort successfully integrated aquatic plant control objectives with snail kite conservation on Lake Okeechobee during 1988. The program was expanded the following year to lakes Kissimmee and Tohopekaliga. Since the implementation of the snail kite impact preclusion program, no nest loss was attributed to incidental herbicide applications on lakes Okeechobee, Kissimmee, and Tohopekaliga.     

Estimating annual survival in sexually dimorphic species from proportions of first-year birds

We estimated the annual adult survival (S) of several species of temperate and tropical sexually dimorphic tanagers and manakins from the proportions of first-year and older individuals in museum collections. In the case of the sexually dimorphic species included here, young males through their first year resemble females and can be distinguished from older males. We assumed that the sex ratio among first-year birds is even and estimated the number of immature females (IF) in a sample as equal to the number of immature males (IM), using sex information on museum labels. The number of adult females (AF) is the total number of females (F) minus IF, and survival can be estimated by S = AF/F. We used a Monte Carlo resampling approach to estimate standard errors and 1% and 99% confidence limits on S for samples of size N, based on 1000 sets of N randomly drawn individuals and observed proportions of the F, IM, and AM classes. Estimates of annual survival (S) were 0.60-0.73 in four North American species of Piranga tanagers and 0.50 and 0.62 in two montane Central American species. Values of S in lowland species of Habia and Ramphocelus tanagers ranged between 0.68 and 0.82. Annual survival in Pipra manakins was 0.53-0.68, and values for two Manacus species were 0.69 and 0.70. Where estimates of apparent survival (phi) from capture-recapture studies were available, the two methods produced correlated results with a tendency for phi < S. Among tanagers, only Ramphocelus dimidiatus (0.82) and Piranga bidentata (0.50) stood out from the other species, for which S averaged 0.66 +/- 0.05 (SD). Annual survival rates of temperate and tropical species overlapped broadly in this analysis, reinforcing the conclusion that distinctive life-history traits of temperate vs. tropical species cannot be explained completely by the adjustment of reproductive investment in relation to adult survival and the expectation of future life.     

Conservation resource allocation,small population resiliency,and the fallacy of conservation triage

Some conservation prioritization methods are based on the assumption that conservation needs overwhelm current resources and not all species can be conserved; therefore, a conservation triage scheme (i.e., when the system is overwhelmed, species should be divided into three groups based on likelihood of survival, and efforts should be focused on those species in the group with the best survival prospects and reduced or denied to those in the group with no survival prospects and to those in the group not needing special efforts for their conservation) is necessary to guide resource allocation. We argue that this decision-making strategy is not appropriate because resources are not as limited as often assumed, and it is not evident that there are species that cannot be conserved. Small population size alone, for example, does not doom a species to extinction; plants, reptiles, birds, and mammals offer examples. Although resources dedicated to conserving all threatened species are insufficient at present, the world's economic resources are vast, and greater resources could be dedicated toward species conservation. The political framework for species conservation has improved, with initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements, funding mechanisms such as The Global Environment Facility, and the rise of many nongovernmental organizations with nimble, rapid-response small grants programs. For a prioritization system to allow no extinctions, zero extinctions must be an explicit goal of the system. Extinction is not inevitable, and should not be acceptable. A goal of no human-induced extinctions is imperative given the irreversibility of species loss.     

Feeding behavior in sexual and clonal strains of Poeciliopsis

Summary Sexual and clonal fish of the genus Poeciliopsis occur together in desert streams of Sonora, Mexico. Their coexistence has been explained in terms of niche partitioning for food and space. We examined predatory behavior that might influence niche relationships, and found significant differences among two coexisting sperm-dependent clonal strains and their two sexual progenitors. Handling time and prey manipulation of free-swimming (Artemia) and benthic (chironomid larvae) prey differed significantly among sexual and clonal strains. Analyses of gut contents from field-collected fish revealed that the laboratory estimates of predatory efficiency were related to their feeding behavior in nature. Behavior differences, such as those described herein, contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms of unisexual/bisexual coexistence in Poeciliopsis. Offprint requests to: R.C. Vrijenhoek     

Patterns of Giving and Receiving Help During Severe Winter Conditions: A Research Note

Severe winter conditions and blizzards may cause persons to be stranded, unable to move from one place to another. Being stranded under such conditions can be life-threatening and often requires help. This is a study of giving and receiving help among people who were stranded during severe winter conditions and blizzards in Bowling Green, Ohio, USA and the surrounding countryside in 1976–1977. Mail questionnaire data were collected from the Bowling Green, Ohio telephone directory which included listings from both rural and urban areas. The family, followed by friends and neighbors, were most important in the giving and receiving of help. There was little difference between the responses of rural and urban residents. Propinquity was found to be an important intervening variable.