A numerical model of wave- and current-driven nutrient uptake by coral reef communities

We developed a numerical model capable of simulating the spatial zonation of nutrient uptake in coral reef systems driven by hydrodynamic forcing (both from waves and currents). Relationships between nutrient uptake and bed stress derived from flume and field studies were added to a four-component biogeochemical model embedded within a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic ocean model coupled to a numerical wave model. The performance of the resulting coupled physical-biogeochemical model was first evaluated in an idealized one-dimensional (1-D) channel for both a pure current and a combined wave-current flow. Waves in the channel were represented by an oscillatory flow with constant amplitude and frequency. The simulated nutrient concentrations were in good agreement with the analytical solution for nutrient depletion along a uniform channel, as well as with existing observations of phosphate uptake across a real reef flat. We then applied this integrated model to investigate more complex two-dimensional (2-D) nutrient dynamics, firstly to an idealized coral reef-lagoon morphology, and secondly to a realistic section of Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia, where nutrients were advected into the domain via alongshore coastal currents. Both the idealized reef and Ningaloo Reef simulations showed similar patterns of maximum uptake rates on the shallow forereef and reef crest, and with nutrient concentration decreasing as water flowed over the reef flat. As a result of the cumulative outflow of nutrient-depleted water exiting the reef channels and then being advected down the coast by alongshore currents, both reef simulations exhibited substantial alongshore variation in nutrient concentrations. The coupled models successfully reproduced the observed spatial-variability in nitrate concentration across the Ningaloo Reef system.     

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.     

Total mercury loadings in sediment from gold mining and conservation areas in Guyana

The Low Carbon Development Strategy proposed in June 2009 by the government of Guyana in response to the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries program has triggered evaluation of forest-related activities, thereby acting as a catalyst for improvements in Guyana's small- to medium-scale gold mining industry. This has also shed light on areas committed to conservation, something that has also been handled by Non Governmental Organizations. This paper compares water quality and mercury concentrations in sediment from four main areas in Guyana, two that are heavily mined for gold using mercury amalgamation methods (Arakaka and Mahdia) and two that are considered conservation areas (Iwokrama and Konashen). Fifty-three sediment and soil mercury loadings ranged from 29 to 1,200 ng/g and averaged 215 ± 187 ng/g for all sites with similar averages in conservation and mining areas. Sediment loadings are within the range seen in French Guiana and Suriname, but conservation area samples had higher loadings than the corresponding uncontaminated baselines. Type of ore and location in the mining process seemed to influence mercury loadings. Mercury sediment loadings were slightly positively correlated with pH (correlation coefficient = 0.2; p value < 0.001) whereas no significant correlations were found with dissolved oxygen or turbidity.     

Signal variation and call preferences for whine frequency in the túngara frog, Physalaemus pustulosus

Properties of sexual signals can differ in the amount of within-male variability. In several species of anurans, females exert stabilizing or weakly directional preferences on less variable call properties, and highly directional preferences on more variable ones. Preferences of female túngara frogs, Physalaemus pustulosus, were examined for two call characteristics: a less variable spectral character, dominant frequency of the whine, and a more variable temporal character, inter-call interval. Eight phonotaxis experiments using synthetic calls were conducted with gravid females. Stimuli presented for both characters were based on the mean and standard deviation (SD) of those characters in the study population. For each character, we used four intervals of variation (1, 2, 3, and 4 SD) between stimuli in four different experiments. As has been found in some other anuran species, preference was stronger for the more variable temporal character, increasing in proportion to the difference between stimuli. Preference for the less variable spectral character was not significant until the difference between stimuli was substantial. The strength of female preference, estimated as latency to choose, the number of speakers visited, and the number of females showing phonotaxis, increased in proportion to the increase in the difference between stimuli. All these measures of strength of preference were greater in response to the more variable temporal character compared to responses to the less variable spectral character. Received: 20 September 2000 / Accepted: 7 October 2000     

Wrestling with the complexity of evaluation for organizations at the boundary of science,policy, and practice

Boundary organizations are situated between science, policy, and practice and have a goal of supporting communication and collaboration among these sectors. They have been promoted as a way to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts by building stronger relationships between scientists, policy makers, industry, and practitioners (Cook et al. 2013). Although their promise has been discussed in theory, the work of and expectations for boundary organizations are less defined in practice. Biodiversity conservation is characterized by complexity, uncertainty, dissent, and tight budgets, so boundary organizations face the challenging task of demonstrating their value to diverse stakeholders. We examined the challenges boundary organizations face when seeking to evaluate their work and thus aimed to encourage more productive conversations about evaluation of boundary organizations and their projects. Although no off‐the‐shelf solution is available for a given boundary organization, we identified 4 principles that will support effective evaluation for boundary organizations: engage diverse stakeholders, support learning and reflection, assess contribution to change, and align evaluation with assumption and values.     

Estimation of spatiotemporal trends in bat abundance from mortality data collected at wind turbines

Renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, are essential tools for reducing the causes of climate change, but wind turbines can pose a collision risk for bats. To date, the population-level effects of wind-related mortality have been estimated for only 1 bat species. To estimate temporal trends in bat abundance, we considered wind turbines as opportunistic sampling tools for flying bats (analogous to fishing nets), where catch per unit effort (carcass abundance per monitored turbine) is a proxy for aerial abundance of bats, after accounting for seasonal variation in activity. We used a large, standardized data set of records of bat carcasses from 594 turbines in southern Ontario, Canada, and corrected these data to account for surveyor efficiency and scavenger removal. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate temporal trends in aerial abundance of bats and to explore the effect of spatial factors, including landscape features associated with bat habitat (e.g., wetlands, croplands, and forested lands), on the number of mortalities for each species. The models showed a rapid decline in the abundance of 4 species in our study area; declines in capture of carcasses over 7 years ranged from 65% (big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus]) to 91% (silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]). Estimated declines were independent of the effects of mitigation (increasing wind speed at which turbines begin to generate electricity from 3.5 to 5.5 m/s), which significantly reduced but did not eliminate bat mortality. Late-summer mortality of hoary (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), and silver-haired bats was predicted by woodlot cover, and mortality of big brown bats decreased with increasing elevation. These landscape predictors of bat mortality can inform the siting of future wind energy operations. Our most important result is the apparent decline in abundance of four common species of bat in the airspace, which requires further investigation.     

Comparison of sampling collection strategies for assessing airborne trichloramine levels in indoor swimming pools

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Since 1995, Hery’s trichloramine sampling procedure has been widely used to determine trichloramine exposure in indoor swimming pools. This...     

Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites. We then applied our method to 3 critically endangered vulture species in Cambodia to demonstrate the real-world applicability of the model and to provide the first abundance estimates for these species in Cambodia. Our new approach works best when existing methods are expected to perform poorly (i.e., few sites and large variation in abundance among sites) and if individuals may move among sites between sampling occasions. The approach performed better when there were >8 sampling occasions and net probability of detection was high (>0.5). We believe our approach will be useful in particular for simultaneous surveys at aggregation sites, such as roosts. The method complements existing approaches for estimating abundance of unmarked individuals and is the first method designed specifically for simultaneous counts.     

Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.

     

Local and regional genetic connectivity in a Caribbean coral reef fish

Coupled bio-physical models of larval dispersal predict that the Costa Rica–Panama (CR–PAN) reefs should constitute a demographically isolated region in the western Caribbean. We tested the hypothesis that CR–PAN coral reef fish populations would be isolated from Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS) populations. To test that, we assessed population genetic structure in bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus) from both regions. Adult fish were genotyped from five reefs in CR–PAN and from four reefs along the MBRS at 12 microsatellite loci. Between-region F _ST (F _ST = 0.0030, P < 0.005) and exact test (x ² = 74.34, df = 18, P < 0.0001) results indicated that there is weak but significant genetic differentiation between regions, suggesting some restriction in connectivity along the Central American coastline, as predicted by bio-oceanographic models. Additionally, there is among-site genetic structure in the CR–PAN region, relative to the MBRS and between regions, suggesting higher self-recruitment within CR–PAN. This finding may be explained by differences in habitat characteristics.