Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Stream Restoration and Enhancement Projects: Is Anyone Monitoring?

Declines in salmon stocks and general watershed health in Washington State, USA, have led to an increase in stream restoration and enhancement projects initiated throughout the state. The increasing number of projects has also raised questions regarding the monitoring of these efforts. Project managers receiving hydraulic project approvals (HPAs) were surveyed to determine whether monitoring was taking place on their projects. About half the project managers surveyed reported the collection of baseline data and the use of biological, physical, chemical, or other water quality measures for their projects. Of those who reported collection of monitoring data, only 18% indicated that monitoring was required. Respondents were also asked to rank the importance of various project goals on a Likert scale. Project managers with projects focusing on “engineering” goals (e.g., roadbed stabilization) were less likely than other project managers to collect baseline monitoring data. Project managers with projects focusing on “restoration/ecological” or “fisheries” goals were more likely than other project managers to collect monitoring measures. Although monitoring appears to be taking place in slightly more than half of the projects surveyed, the nature of the data collected varies widely across projects, and in most cases the monitoring effort is voluntary. This suggests that project sponsors, funders, and managers must consider the issues involved in requiring appropriate monitoring, establishing standardized monitoring guidelines, the time frames in which to monitor, providing other incentives for conducting monitoring, and ensuring adequate funding for monitoring efforts.     

Spectroscopic speciation and quantification of lead in phosphate-amended soils

The immobilization of Pb in contaminated soils as pyromorphite [Pb(5)(PO(4))(3)Cl, OH, F] through the addition of various phosphate amendments has gained much attention in the remediation community. However, it is difficult to fully determine the speciation and amount of soil Pb converted to pyromorphite by previously employed methods, such as selective sequential extraction procedures and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, which often lead to erroneous results in these non-equilibrated and heterogeneous systems. Statistical analysis by linear combination fitting (LCF) applied to X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopic data of Pb-contaminated soil samples relative to known Pb reference material provides direct, in situ evidence of dominate Pb species in the amended soils without chemical or physical disruption to the Pb species as well as a weighted quantification output. The LCF-XAFS approach illustrated that pyromorphite concentration ranged from 0% (control soil) to 45% (1% phosphoric acid amendment, residence time of 32 mo) relative to the total Pb concentration. The Pb speciation in the nonamended control soil included Pb-sulfur species (galena + angelsite = 53%), adsorbed Pb (inner-sphere + outer-sphere + organic-bound = 45%), and Pb-carbonate phases (cerussite + hydrocerussite = 2%). The addition of P promoted pyromorphite formation and the rate of formation increased with increasing P concentration (up to 45%). The supplemental addition of an iron amendment as an iron-rich byproduct with triple superphosphate (TSP) enhanced pyromorphite formation relative to independent TSP amendment of like concentrations (41 versus 29%). However, the amendment of biosolids and biosolids plus TSP observed little pyromorphite formation (1-16% of total Pb), but a significant increase of sorbed Pb was determined by LCF-XAFS.     

Salmonella typhimurium survival and viability is unaltered by suspended particles in freshwater

Rolling microcosm experiments were conducted to determine whether suspended particles affect the survival and viability of a model pathogen, Salmonella choleraesuis, serotype typhimurium (American Type Culture Collection no. 23567), in a freshwater microbial community. Water from the Duluth, MN harbor of Lake Superior (including native microorganisms) was inoculated with clay, silt, or flocculent organic particles in a range of concentrations and a streptomycin-resistant strain of S. typhimurium. Microcosms (incubated at 20 degrees C) were rolled horizontally (3 rpm) and sampled periodically for total bacteria and total, viable, and culturable S. typhimurium. Total S. typhimurium abundance decreased rapidly in all experiments (8.5-73.1% d-1). Total bacteria did not decrease as rapidly as the S. typhimurium population in any experiment, suggesting that a microcosm effect was not responsible for the decline in S. typhimurium populations. Loss rates of attached and free cells were similar, indicating that attachment to particles did not enhance the persistence of Salmonella cells beyond our minimum detectable differences. After eight days, only 0.1 to 11.9% of the initial S. typhimurium inocula were detected by direct counts. Suspended particles had a minimal effect on the survival and viability of S. typhimurium; the losses of total, viable, or culturable Salmonella were generally the same across particle treatments and concentrations. Silt and flocculent particles affected loss rates of total and viable S. typhimurium similarly to inorganic particles (clay). It appears unlikely that suspended particles would provide a means for S. typhimurium to persist at hazardous levels in freshwater.     

A tracer study of headspace ventilation in a collector sewer

A field-scale tracer test was conducted to evaluate in-situ ventilation rates in a major collector sewer. The sewer under study was approximately 11 km long and ranged from 0.61 to 2.1 m in diameter. For the purposes of the tracer testing, the collector was divided into four reaches, each of which was tested individually. The tracer test involved injecting a measured volume of CO gas into a manhole over a short time period. CO concentrations were then measured in the collector headspace at selected manholes along the length of the reach. The technique employed successfully measured average headspace velocities over extended lengths of the collector. In a section that had a relatively stagnant headspace, approximately 1.1 km of sewer could be evaluated, with substantial tracer loss attributed to losses to manholes. In a section of the sewer with elevated headspace velocities, a section approximately 7.0 km long was successfully tested with one injection of tracer gas. The velocities observed in the collector varied substantially with time and location in the collector. The lowest velocities measured were in the upstream sections, with a minimum observed value of 3.8 m/min. The highest velocities were observed in the downstream sections, with a maximum value of 31.5 m/min. The presence of a substantial drop structure appeared to reduce the headspace velocity in the upstream reach. In general, there was an increasing trend in gas-phase flows with distance along the length of the collector. Flows at the discharge end of the collector were almost 2 orders of magnitude greater than those at the beginning.     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

Exploring co-management theory: prospects for sociobiology and reciprocal altruism

Co-management has gained prominence due to the sustained interest in participatory forms of natural resource management. While theoretical development posed an initial challenge, it has become an integral part of the co-management literature. This paper comprehensively explores co-management theory. It begins with an investigation of theory itself. The major elements of theory (concepts, variables and relational propositions) are described and a typology of theoretical statements (formats) is conceptualized. Co-management theory is subsequently charted according to the four schemes (modelling, propositional, analytical and meta-theoretical) which make up the typology. Given the maturing nature of the co-management literature and the absence of any meta-theoretical schemes, we examine the central and underlying assumption of co-operation through the science of sociobiology. Reciprocal altruism is pursued to explain why non-kin co-operate, and is adapted to elucidate the potentials and pitfalls of co-management. This meta-theory enriches understanding of co-management, provides guidance to the other theoretical schemes, and offers a foundational basis upon which construction of subtle predications is possible.