Incorporating landscape stochasticity into population viability analysis.

The importance of incorporating landscape dynamics into population viability analysis (PVA) has previously been acknowledged, but the need to repeat the landscape generation process to encapsulate landscape stochasticity in model outputs has largely been overlooked. Reasons for this are that (1) there is presently no means for quantifying the relative effects of landscape stochasticity and population stochasticity on model outputs, and therefore no means for determining how to allocate simulation time optimally between the two; and (2) the process of generating multiple landscapes to incorporate landscape stochasticity is tedious and user-intensive with current PVA software. Here we demonstrate that landscape stochasticity can be an important source of variance in model outputs. We solve the technical problems with incorporating landscape stochasticity by deriving a formula that gives the optimal ratio of population simulations to landscape simulations for a given model, and by providing a computer program that incorporates the formula and automates multiple landscape generation in a dynamic landscape metapopulation (DLMP) model. Using a case study of a bird population, we produce estimates of DLMP model output parameters that are up to four times more precise than those estimated from a single landscape in the same amount of total simulation time. We use the DLMP modeling software RAMAS Landscape to run the landscape and metapopulation models, though our method is general and could be applied to any PVA platform. The results of this study should motivate DLMP modelers to consider landscape stochasticity in their analyses.     

Assessment and individual recognition of opponents in the pygmy swordtails Xiphophorus nigrensis and X. multilineatus

We examined factors that determine the outcome of agonistic encounters between male pygmy swordtail fish. Xiphophorus nigrensis and X. multilineatus males formed dominance relationships based on body size in staged laboratory encounters. There was a significant negative correlation between size asymmetry and fight intensity, suggesting that males assessed size in the encounters. However, a significant proportion of the variation in fight intensity in contests that escalated to bites could not be explained by size asymmetry. Aggressive motivation may also influence the outcome of contests and could be assessed in agonistic encounters. Theory suggests that signals of aggressive intention will be evolutionarily stable if individuals can recognize opponents and encounter one another repeatedly. In addition, individual recognition is one way that dominance hierarchies can be maintained. Here we demonstrate that males from both species can recognize individuals. In addition, at least some X. nigrensis males were site-faithful in the field, suggesting males encounter the same opponents repeatedly.Communicated by G.M. Klump     

Mating strategies and mating success of fallow (Dama dama) bucks in a non-lekking population

The rutting behaviour of bucks in an enclosed population was investigated between 1988 and 1990. A substantial proportion of the matings were observed. After preliminary observations in the 1987 rut we categorised bucks into one of four rutting strategies based mainly on their degree of territoriality. We investigate the effects of age, dominance and mating strategy on mating success. Territories were aggregated in an area of oak woods and mating success was highly skewed. Bucks of between 5 and 7 years old achieved the majority (over 90%) of observed matings. Mating success was highly correlated with dominance but only weakly related to fighting success. The possession of a territory was crucial to achieving high reproductive success, with a 38-fold difference between the most and least successful strategies. Bucks pursuing the different strategies also differed in the time they commenced groaning, timing of matings, mating interference and the locations where they achieved their matings. Although high-ranking males devoted considerable effort to obtaining and defending a territory only 36% of each buck's matings were achieved on his territory and males tended to abandon these sites when the tendency of females to visit them decreased.     

Persistence of individually distinctive display patterns in fatigued side-blotched lizards ( Uta stansburiana)

Iguanian lizards perform conspicuous species-typical push-up displays, which are used in territory advertisement, threat, and courtship contexts. Subtle individually distinctive differences in push-up characteristics have been suggested to play a role in the recognition of social partners. However, if the structure of push-ups is responsive to changing physiological states then their capacity to promote recognition may be limited. The current study evaluated whether the push-ups performed while in an experimentally imposed state of fatigue by male side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana), retain the individually distinctive characteristics apparent in rested lizards. We found repeatable among-individual differences in the duration and the relative height of push-up components. Repeatability values did not change consistently between the rested and fatigued conditions, nor when both conditions were pooled, indicating that these push-up characteristics do not change with fatigue. Similarly, discriminant functions that were generated using push-ups from one state assigned push-ups performed in an alternate state to the correct individuals. Furthermore, when analyzed independently of individual identity, the values of display parameters examined in the current study did not change significantly between states, and discriminant function analysis could not reliably classify push-ups to the correct state. Taken together the results show that individually distinctive push-up characteristics are robust to effects of fatigue, consistent with their suggested role in social recognition. In the future, video playback experiments can test whether lizards utilize the signature-like characteristics of push-ups to discriminate among individuals.Communicated by T. Czeschlik     

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Acute Admissions for Ischemic Heart Disease in NSW,Australia

The recently funded Spatial Environmental Epidemiology in New South Wales (SEE NSW) project aims to use routinely collected data in NSW Australia to investigate risk factors for various chronic diseases. In this paper, we present a case study focused on the relationship between social disadvantage and ischemic heart disease to highlight some of the methodological challenges that are likely to arise.     

Can the ratio of aromatic skeletons explain cross-species responses within evolutionarily conserved Ostariophysan alarm cues?: testing the purine-ratio hypothesis

Summary. While the response to damage-released chemical alarm cues within the superorder Ostariophysi appears to be highly conserved across species, it is generally observed that the intensity of response to heterospecific alarm cues decreases with increasing phylogenetic distance. Recent studies have demonstrated that purine-N-oxides function as chemical alarm cues within Ostariophyian fishes and that the nitrogen-oxide functional group is conserved as the chief molecular trigger. According to the purine-ratio hypothesis, these cross-species differences may be due to the relative proportion of different carrier compounds associated with the nitrogen-oxide molecular trigger. To test this hypothesis, we exposed glowlight tetras (Hemigrammus erythrozonus, Characidae, Ostariophysi) to one of five synthetic stimuli (hypoxanthine-3-N-oxide (H3NO), pyridine-N-oxide (PNO) or mixed stimuli of 75 % H3NO-25 % PNO, 50 % H3NO-50 % PNO, or 25 % H3NO-75 % PNO), natural conspecific chemical alarm cue or a distilled water control. We quantified changes in shoal cohesion and vertical area use as species typical indicators of an antipredator response. As predicted, response intensity decreased as the ratio of hypoxanthine-3-N-oxide to pyridine-N-oxide decreased and the strongest response was to natural alarm cue. These results suggest that species-specific carrier compounds may account for the well-documented cross-species differences in the response to heterospecific alarm cues within phylogenetically related taxa.     

Endangered light-footed clapper rail affects parasite community structure in coastal wetlands.

An extinction necessarily affects community members that have obligate relationships with the extinct species. Indirect or cascading effects can lead to even broader changes at the community or ecosystem level. However, it is not clear whether generalist parasites should be affected by the extinction of one of their hosts. We tested the prediction that loss of a host species could affect the structure of a generalist parasite community by investigating the role of endangered Light-footed Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris levipes) in structuring trematode communities in four tidal wetlands in southern California, U.S.A. (Carpinteria Salt Marsh, Mugu Lagoon) and Mexico (Estero de Punta Banda, Bahia Falsa-San Quintin). We used larval trematode parasites in first intermediate host snails (Cerithidea californica) as windows into the adult trematodes that parasitize Clapper Rails. Within and among wetlands, we found positive associations between Clapper Rails and four trematode species, particularly in the vegetated marsh habitat where Clapper Rails typically occur. This suggests that further loss of Clapper Rails is likely to affect the abundance of several competitively dominant trematode species in wetlands with California horn snails, with possible indirect effects on the trematode community and changes in the impacts of these parasites on fishes and invertebrates.     

Operational value of anthropometric surveillance in famine early warning and relief: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in 'Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88' (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost-effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.     

Use of historical assessment for evaluation of process-based model projections of future environmental change: Lake acidification in the Adirondack mountains, New York, USA

Because of the considerable uncertainties associated with modeling complex ecosystem processes, it is essential that every effort be made to test model performance prior to relying on model projections for assessment of future surface water chemical response to environmental perturbation. Unfortunately, long-term chemical data with which to validate model performance are seldom available. The authors present here an evaluation of historical acidification of lake waters in the northeastern United States, and compare historical changes in a set of lakes to hindcasts from the same watershed model (MAGIC) used to estimate future changes in response to acidic deposition. The historical analyses and comparisons with MAGIC model hindcasts and forecasts of acid-base response demonstrate that the acidic and low-ANC lakes in this region are responsive to strong acid inputs. However, the model estimates suggest lakewater chemistry is more responsive to atmospheric inputs of sulfur than do the estimates based on paleolimnological historical analyses. A 'weight-of-evidence approach' that incorporates all available sources of information regarding acid-base response provides a more reasonable estimate of future change than an approach based on model projections alone. The results of these analyses have important implications for predicting future surface water chemical change in response to acidic deposition, establishing critical loads of atmospheric pollutants, and other environmental assessment activities where natural variation often exceeds the trends under investigation (high noise-to-signal ratio). Under these conditions, it is particularly important to evaluate future model projections in light of historical trends data.     

Sensitivity to change for low-ANC eastern US lakes and streams and brook trout populations under alternative sulfate deposition scenarios

A weight-of-evidence approach was used by the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) to assess the sensitivity of chemistry and biology of lakes and streams to hypothesized changes in sulfate deposition over the next 50 years. The analyses focused on projected effects in response to differences in the magnitude and the timing of changes in sulfate deposition in the north-eastern United States, the Mid-Appalachian Highlands, and the Southern Blue Ridge Province. A number of tools was used to provide the weight of evidence that is required to have confidence in an assessment that has many uncertainties because of the complexity of the systems for which the projections of future conditions were made and because of limited historical data. The MAGIC model provided the projections of chemical changes in response to alternative deposition scenarios. Projected chemical conditions were input into biological models that evaluate effects on fish populations. The sensitivity of water chemistry and brook trout resources to the hypothesized changes in deposition was found to be greatest in the Adirondacks and Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Under the hypothesized sulfur deposition reduction scenarios, chemical conditions suitable for fish were projected to improve 20-30 years sooner than with the scenario that assumed no new legislated controls. Other lines of evidence, e.g. other models, field observations, and paleolimnological findings, were used to evaluate uncertainty in the projections. Model parameter/calibration uncertainty for the chemical models and population sampling uncertainty were explicitly quantified. Model structural uncertainties were bracketed using model comparisons, recent measured changes, and paleolimnological reconstructions of historical changes in lake chemistry.