Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Air pollution exposure monitoring and estimation. Part VI. Ambient exposure of adults in an industrialised region

This paper presents methodology and results of a dynamic individual air pollution exposure model (DINEX) that calculates the hourly exposure for each adult in a panel study. Each of over 260 participants, through the use of a diary, provided information used in the model to calculate his/her personal, individualised exposure. The participants filled out the diary daily, hour by hour, over two, two month periods. The exposure assessment model coupled the diary information and results of an indoor/outdoor measurement program, with the results of dispersion modelling on an hourly basis for an industrial area in Norway. The estimated air pollution concentrations from the dispersion model, based on continuous meteorological measurements, were calibrated with air pollutant concentrations measured continuously.     

Collaborative study to improve the quality control of rare earth element determinations in environmental matrices

In order to control the quality of rare earth determinations in environmental matrices, the Standards, Measurements and Testing Programme (formerly Community Bureau of Reference, BCR) of the European Commission has started a project, the final aim of which is to certify four types of matrices (tuna muscle, mussel tissue, aquatic plant and estuarine sediment) for their contents of a range of rare earth elements (Sc, Y and the lanthanides: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and Lu). The elements U and Th were added to the study. The first part of this project consisted of an interlaboratory study which aimed to test the feasibility of preparation of environmental reference materials and to detect and remove most of the pitfalls observed in rare earth determinations. This paper presents the preparation of the four matrices for the intercomparison study and for the candidate reference material. The main results are presented of the interlaboratory study that was carried out prior to the certification campaign. This collaborative trial is the first attempt ever carried out at this scale to evaluate the state-of-the-art of rare earth determinations in the environment. Its impact on the improvement of chemical measurements will have positive effects on the comparability of data necessary for environmental monitoring.     

The extraction of aged polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) residues from a clay soil using sonication and a Soxhlet procedure: a comparative study

A sonication method was compared with Soxhlet extraction for recovering polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from a clay soil that had been contaminated with tar materials for several decades. Using sonication over an 8 h extraction period, maximum extraction of the 16 US EPA priority PAH was obtained with dichloromethane (DCM)-acetone (1 + 1). The same procedure using hexane-acetone (1 + 1) recovered 86% of that obtained using DCM-acetone (1 + 1). PAH recovery was dependent on time of extraction up to a period of 8 h. The sonication procedure showed that individual PAH are extracted at differing rates depending on the number of fused rings in the molecule. Soxhlet extraction [with DCM-acetone (1 + 1)] over an 8 h period recovered 95% of the PAH removed by the sonication procedure using DCM-acetone (1 + 1), indicating that rigorous sonication can achieve PAH recoveries similar to those obtained by Soxhlet extraction. The lower recovery with the Soxhlet extraction was explained by the observed losses of the volatile PAH components after 1-4 h of extraction. The type of solvent used, the length of time of extraction and extraction method influenced the quantification of PAH in the soil. Therefore, the study has implications for PAH analyses in soils and sediments, and particularly for contaminated site assessments where the data from commercial laboratories are being used. The study emphasizes the importance of establishing (and being consistent in the application of) a vigorous extraction, particularly for commercial laboratories that handle samples of soil in batches (at different times) from a single site investigation or remediation process. The strong binding of PAH to soil, forming aged residues, has significant implications for extraction efficiency. This paper illustrates the problem of the underestimation of PAH using the US EPA method 3550, specifically where a surrogate spike is routinely employed and the efficiency of the extraction procedure for aged residues is unknown. The implications of this study for environmental monitoring, particularly where numerous batches of samples from a single site assessment or remediation program are submitted to commercial laboratories, is that it would be advisable for these laboratories to check their existing method's extraction efficiencies by conducting a time course sonication extraction on their particular soil to determine the optimum extraction time.     

Microwave-Assisted Solvent Extraction of Air Particulates for the Determination of PAHs

A method for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air particulates using microwave-assisted solvent extraction (MASE) coupled to a microwave extraction system (MES) is proposed. During the period of August to October, 1994, Singapore was enveloped by haze caused by forest fires in Sumatra, Indonesia. Air sampling were carried out during September and October; the determination of ambient air PAH levels in Singapore was undertaken. PAH analysis by GC-MS provided excellent sensitivity, linearity of quantitation, peak identification. This technique was evaluated using certified reference materials (CRMs) HS-4 and HS-6. Good recoveries of PAHs (>73.3%) were obtained for both CRMs. The MASE technique using MES is suitable for the determination of PAH levels in ambient air with no clean-up step required.     

evaluation of a measurement method for forest vegetation in a large-scale ecological survey

We evaluate a field method for determining species richness andcanopy cover of vascular plants for the Forest Health MonitoringProgram (FHM), an ecological survey of U.S. forests. Measurementsare taken within 12 1-m² quadrats on 1/15 ha plots in FHM.Species richness and cover are determined for four height classes(strata) within each quadrat and aggregated by stratum over the entireplot. We estimated (1) the agreement between experienced trainers andinexperienced technicians who collected the data on this survey(accuracy) and (2) the agreement among the technicians (precision) forresults on species richness and cover from 3 test plots at 3 timeintervals. The methods appear to be highly precise, although somediscrepancies with the values obtained by the trainers were found.Trainers found significantly more species in the ground stratum (0–0.6 m) and measured significantly more cover in the uppermost stratum(>4.9 m). The proportion of variation due to measurement error andtemporal variability was less than 13% for species richness (all strata)and cover (all but one stratum). This indicates that the method issuitable for monitoring changes in species richness and canopy coverfor a large-scale synoptic monitoring project such as FHM.     

Chemical and Bacteriological Monitoring of Drinking Water from an Urbanised Water Catchment Drainage Basin

The Linggi river drainage basin in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia supplies water to the whole of Port Dickson district and meets 50% of the Seremban district needs. The Linggi River, the main tributary, passes through the highly urbanised and densely populated Seremban district while the water treatment plant is located 16 km downstream. In 1979 the USEPA declared the river unsuitable as a source of raw water whereas the WHO classified it as being heavily polluted requiring more extensive and effective treatment. In order to meet the WHO drinking water standards, an ozonation system was installed in the conventional water treatment plant. The objective of ozonation is for the control and removal of organic micropollutants and other deleterious matters. This study investigated the concentrations and distribution of organic micropollutants, heavy metals, and bacteriological counts in water samples collected from within the catchment and the treated water. The effectiveness of the ozonation system was also studied. The total level of phenolic water pollutants in the catchment was generally found to be very much higher than the maximum recommended level of 2.0 µgl-1. The extensive treatment process carried out at the plant was very effective in reducing the levels of total phenols in the treated water to less than 1.0 µgl-1. However the process was not efficient enough to reduce the levels of some heavy metals as required by the standards, for examples Cd and Pb were still three times higher than the standards of 5µgl-1 and 0.05 mgl-1 respectively. For bacteriological study, coliform group of bacteria, Salmonella, faecal streptococci and injured coliform were monitored in the raw and treated water. The raw water contained coliforms about 1000 times higher than the required standard for raw ater, but after the secondary treatment by ozonation coliform bacteria were absent, however a small number of Salmonella was still present occasionally. The study also showed that restructuring of the district and relocating of some commercial activities along the river banks to other areas carried out over the last five years has improved the general quality of the river water.     

Soil Lead and Other Metal Levels in Industrial, Residential and Nature Reserve Areas in Singapore

The use of pressure feedback microwave digestion technique has permitted rapid and efficient digestion of soil and sediment samples. The evaluation of different acid mixtures to digest soil samples were studied by mixed-level orthogonal array design. The selected acid mixture of HCl-HNO3-HF was employed in the survey of Pb, Zn, Cu, Cr and Mn in soil samples. Surface soil samples were collected from industrial, residential and nature reserve areas in Singapore. The five metal concentrations were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. The lead and other metal contents in NBS SRM 1645, NIES CRM No. 2 and NRCC BCSS-1 sediment standard references were determined concurrently with the survey samples. Five measured metal loading on the surface soils was in the order: industrial area > residential area > nature reserve area. The trace metal concentrations in surface soil from areas of heavy traffic are higher than those from residential areas. The main sources of trace metal pollution are vehicular exhaust and industrial activities.     

A Global Overview of Atmospheric Acid Deposition Fluxes

This paper presents a summary of globalacid deposition flux data taken from a globalassessment report on acid deposition prepared forUNEP/WMO (Whelpdale and Kaiser, 1996). There is a largevariation in the spacial coverage and reliability ofmonitoring around the world. Many more stationsmeasure wet deposition than collect appropriate datafor estimating dry deposition. The widespread regionswith highest precipitation concentrations anddeposition fluxes of sulphate and nitrate coincideclosely with the regions of highest density ofSO₂ and NO_x precursor emissions occurringprimarily in the mid-latitude, northern hemispherebelt where a large fraction of the worlds fossilfuels is consumed. Organic acids in precipitation makea minor contribution to acidity (<20%) inindustrial regions, but in the rest of the world theyare of same order, or even exceed, inorganic acids.Less is known about dry deposition, but it appears topredominate near strong emission sources with wetdeposition predominating farther downwind. The molarratio of the N/S contribution to acidic deposition isclose to 1.0 over large areas of Europe and NorthAmerica, but is highly variable elsewhere, beinghighest in equatorial regions due to biomass burningand lowest near smelters and other large sources of SO₂.