Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Linking ground-water age and chemistry data along flow paths: implications for trends and transformations of nitrate and pesticides

Tracer-based ground-water ages, along with the concentrations of pesticides, nitrogen species, and other redox-active constituents, were used to evaluate the trends and transformations of agricultural chemicals along flow paths in diverse hydrogeologic settings. A range of conditions affecting the transformation of nitrate and pesticides (e.g., thickness of unsaturated zone, redox conditions) was examined at study sites in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and California. Deethylatrazine (DEA), a transformation product of atrazine, was typically present at concentrations higher than those of atrazine at study sites with thick unsaturated zones but not at sites with thin unsaturated zones. Furthermore, the fraction of atrazine plus DEA that was present as DEA did not increase as a function of ground-water age. These findings suggest that atrazine degradation occurs primarily in the unsaturated zone with little or no degradation in the saturated zone. Similar observations were also made for metolachlor and alachlor. The fraction of the initial nitrate concentration found as excess N2 (N2 derived from denitrification) increased with ground-water age only at the North Carolina site, where oxic conditions were generally limited to the top 5 m of saturated thickness. Historical trends in fluxes to ground water were evaluated by relating the times of recharge of ground-water samples, estimated using chlorofluorocarbon concentrations, with concentrations of the parent compound at the time of recharge, estimated by summing the molar concentrations of the parent compound and its transformation products in the age-dated sample. Using this approach, nitrate concentrations were estimated to have increased markedly from 1960 to the present at all study sites. Trends in concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, and their degradates were related to the timing of introduction and use of these compounds. Degradates, and to a lesser extent parent compounds, were detected in ground water dating back to the time these compounds were introduced.     

The effects of low frequency noise on mental performance and annoyance

Low frequency noise (LFN) as background noise in urban and work environments is emitted from many artificial sources such as road vehicles, aircraft, and air movement machinery including wind turbines, compressors, and ventilation or air conditioning units. In addition to objective effects, LFN could also cause noise annoyance and influence mental performance; however, there are no homogenous findings regarding this issue. The purpose of this research was to study the effects of LFN on mental performance and annoyance, as well as to consider the role of extraversion and neuroticism on the issue. This study was conducted on 90 students of Iran University of Medical Sciences (54 males and 36 females). The mean age of the students was 23.46 years (SD?=?1.97). Personality traits and noise annoyance were measured by using Eysenck Personality Inventory and a 12-scale self-reported questionnaire, respectively. Stroop and Cognitrone computerized tests measured mental performance of participants each exposed to 50 and 70 dBA of LFN and silence. LFNs were produced by Cool Edit Pro 2.1 software. There was no significant difference between mental performance parameters under 50 and 70 dBA of LFN, whereas there were significant differences between most mental performance parameters in quiet and under LFN (50 and 70 dBA). This research showed that LFN, compared to silence, increased the accuracy and the test performance speed (p?<?0.01). There was no association between LFN and noise annoyance (p?>?0.01). Introverts conducted the tests faster than extraverts (p?<?0.05). This research showed that neuroticism does not influence mental performance. It seems that LFN has increased arousal level of participants, and extraversion has a considerable impact on mental performance.     

H∞ loop-shaping controller design for a grid-connected single-phase photovoltaic system

This paper presents a H_∞ loop-shaping controller for controlling dc-link voltage by regulating the switching signal of the inverter associated with a grid-connected single-phase photovoltaic system. To facilitate a robust control design, state-space realisation of the system model is made with uncertainties represented by linear fractional transformation. The controller is achieved through H_∞ synthesis followed by obtaining desired loop shapes through the choice of the proper weighting functions. The controller order is reduced by Henkel-norm method for facilitating its practical implementation. Controller performance is evaluated through carrying out simulations on MATLAB/Simulink platform under standard and changing atmospheric conditions, and fault condition.     

Performance of a small-scale solar-powered adsorption cooling system

In this study, an experimental investigation on the performance of a small-scale residential-size solar-driven adsorption (silica gel-water) cooling system that was constructed at Assiut University campus, Egypt is carried out. As Assiut area is considered as hot, arid climate, field tests for performance assessment of the system operation during the summer season are performed under different environmental operating conditions. The system consists of an evacuated tube with a reflective concentration parabolic surface solar-collector field with a total area of 36 m², a silica gel-water adsorption chiller of 8 kW nominal cooling capacity, and hot and cold water thermal storage tanks of 1.8 and 1.2 m³ in volume, respectively. The results of summer season field test show that under daily solar insolation varying from 21 to 27 MJ/m², the solar collectors employed in the system had high and almost constant thermal efficiency. The daily solar-collector efficiency during the period of system operation ranged from about 50% to 78%. The adsorption chiller performance shows that the chiller average daily coefficient of performance (COP) was 0.41 with the average cooling capacity of 4.4 kW when the cooling-water and chilled-water temperatures were about 31°C and 19°C, respectively. As the chiller cooling water is cooled by the cooling tower in the hot arid area, the cooling water is at a higher temperature than the design point of the chiller. Therefore, an experiment was carried out using the city water for cooling. The results show that an enhancement in the chiller COP by 40% and the chilling power by 17% has been achieved when the city water was 27.7°C.     

Preparation and Characterization of Biodegradable Blend Membranes of PBS/CA

Asymmetric membranes of cellulose acetate/poly (butylene succinate) were prepared using immersion precipitation technique. The blended membranes were characterized by contact angle, scanning electron microscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, degradation test in compost and dynamic test of raisin wastewater treatment. Results demonstrated that hydrophilicity of cellulose acetate was enhanced by addition of poly (butylene succinate) up to 50 %. Furthermore, polymeric composition affects cross sectional structure of the membranes by controlling formation of macrovoids. Addition of poly (butylene succinate) improved the membranes thermal stability and obviously their degradation in compost. The prepared membranes were able to reject the wastewater pollutants properly.     

Micropollutants in urban stormwater: occurrence,concentrations, and atmospheric contributions for a wide range of contaminants in three French catchments

This study aimed at: (a) providing information on the occurrence and concentration ranges in urban stormwater for a wide array of pollutants (n?=?77); (b) assessing whether despite the differences between various catchments (land use, climatic conditions, etc.), the trends in terms of contamination level are similar; and (c) analyzing the contribution of total atmospheric fallout (TAF) with respect to sources endogenous to this contamination. The studied contaminants include conventional stormwater contaminants (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), Zn, Cu, Pb, etc.), in addition to poorly or undocumented pollutants such as nonylphenol and octylphenol ethoxylates (NPnEO and OPnEO), bisphenol A (BPA), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a wide variety of pesticides, and various metals of relevance (As, Ti, Sr, V). Sampling and analysis were performed using homogeneous methods on three urban catchments with different land use patterns located in three distinct French towns. For many of these pollutants, the results do not allow highlighting a significant difference in stormwater quality at the scale of the three urban catchments considered. Significant differences were, however, observed for several metals (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sr and Zn), PAHs, and PBDEs, though this assessment would need to be confirmed by further experiments. The pollutant distributions between dissolved and particulate phases were found to be similar across the three experimental sites, thus suggesting no site dependence. Lastly, the contributions of TAF to stormwater contamination for micropollutants were quite low. This finding held true not only for PAHs, as previously demonstrated in the literature, but also for a broader range of molecules such as BPA, NPnEO, OPnEO, and PBDEs, whose high local production is correlated with the leaching of urban surfaces, buildings, and vehicles.     

Investigation of PM2.5 and carbon dioxide levels in urban homes

PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) samples were collected in the indoor environments of 15 urban homes and their adjacent outdoor environments in Alexandria, Egypt, during the spring time. Indoor and outdoor carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were also measured concurrently. The results showed that indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations in the 15 sites, with daily averages of 45.5 ± 11.1 and 47.3 ± 12.9 µg/m³, respectively, were significantly higher than the ambient 24-hr PM_2.5 standard of 35 µg/m³ recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The indoor PM_2.5 and CO₂ levels were correlated with the corresponding outdoor levels, demonstrating that outdoor convection and infiltration could lead to direct transportation indoors. Ventilation rates were also measured in the selected residences and ranged from 1.6 to 4.5 hr^?1 with median value of 3.3 hr^?1. The indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios of the monitored homes varied from 0.73 to 1.65 with average value of 0.99 ± 0.26 for PM_2.5, whereas those for CO₂ ranged from 1.13 to 1.66 with average value of 1.41 ± 0.15. Indoor sources and personal activities, including smoking and cooking, were found to significantly influence indoor levels.

Implications: Few studies on indoor air quality were carried out in Egypt, and the scarce data resulted from such studies do not allow accurate assessment of the current situation to take necessary preventive actions. The current research investigates indoor levels of PM_2.5 and CO₂ in a number of homes located in the city of Alexandria as well as the potential contribution from both indoor and outdoor sources. The study draws attention of policymakers to the importance of the establishment of national indoor air quality standards to protect human health and control air pollution in different indoor environments.     

Effect of Habitat Complexity on Richness, Abundance and Distributional Pattern of Forest Birds

Structurally complex forests provide more diverse conditions in comparison to homogenous forests because of greater variety of microhabitats and trees. This study assesses the association of bird species richness, abundance, and distributional pattern with habitat complexity (HC) in Kheyrud Forest in the north of Iran. Birds were surveyed during spring 2009 by 100 point counts. In each point count six habitat features related to the index of HC were computed and scored from 0 to 3. Then the scores were summed and divided into two groups of low and high complexity, HC ≤ 6 and HC > 6, respectively. To compare bird richness and abundance in different HCs, a two sample t-test was used. Presence and absence of bird species at each plot as a dependent variable were compared with the vegetation characteristics as an independent variable by means of the Canonical Correspondence Analysis. The results revealed bird species richness and abundance were significantly higher in more complex habitats. Bird species can be divided into two groups, the first group including species which associated with late successional stages and the second group, species belonging to early successional stages. Numbers of birds belonging to the first group declined in less complex forests, whereas the numbers of birds belonging to the second group increased. At the stand scale, our results reveal that bird abundance and richness are strongly associated with the complexity of vegetation structure in the study area.