Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue

The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980–2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Niño periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Niño (an El Niño + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies.     

Association between non-optimal temperature and hospitalizations for gout in Anqing,China: a time-series analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Previous studies have found that non-optimal temperature influences the development of gout, but the results have been inconsistent. The present study...     

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers increasingly use knowledge coproduction to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley (USA) to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We coproduced scenario narratives, spatially explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We documented our coproduction process, and using the coproduced models, we determined when and where management actions make a difference and when climate overrides these actions. The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to cocreate usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. Actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply created habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat was most limited; land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change; and uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. Although a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to coproduce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped build legitimacy. Yet, broadscale use of climate adaptation knowledge depends on state and local policies, engagement with decision makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.     

Uncertainty reduction for improved mishap probability prediction: Application to level control of distillation unit

At all levels, the understanding of uncertainty associated with risk of major chemical industrial hazards should be enhanced. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed for a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process and then probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied for this QRA. A fault tree was developed to analyze the probability distribution of flammable liquid released from the overfilling of a knockout drum. Bayesian theory was used to update failure rates of the equipment so that generic information from databases and plant equipment real life data are combined to gain all available knowledge on component reliability. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution of top event probability was obtained to characterize the uncertainty of the result. It was found that the uncertainty of basic event probabilities has a significant impact on the top event probability distribution. The top event probability prediction uncertainty profile showed that the risk estimation is improved by reducing uncertainty through Bayesian updating on the basic event probability distributions. The whole distribution of top event probability replaces point value in a risk matrix to guide decisions employing all of the available information rather than only point mean values as in the conventional approach. The resulting uncertainty guides where more information or uncertainty reduction is needed to avoid overlap with intolerable risk levels.     

Integrating switchgear breakers and contactors into a safety instrumented function

In the process industries, electrical circuit breakers are tripped for a variety of reasons including hazard prevention and mitigation. This paper will discuss the application of tripping electrical breakers for process safety reasons. It often occurs that a risk assessment study has determined the need to include the shutdown of a large electric motor as part of a safety instrumented function (SIF). In the process industries, it is common practice to control and protect large horsepower motors (typically 2000 HP and above), with medium-voltage switchgear breakers. Safety instrumented functions that include electric motors utilizing medium-voltage switchgear for tripping have unique final element subsystems, which require specialized knowledge in order to implement correctly. This paper will discuss the design considerations for integrating medium-voltage switchgear used for shutdown of an electric motor into a safety instrumented function. First, an overview of typical low and medium-voltage electrical equipment used for controlling and protecting electric motors will be discussed. Next, a review of generic sourced failure data for medium-voltage switchgear breakers will be presented. Focus will be on the taxonomy used to classify different breaker types and the relevant failure modes and effects used for quantifying performance. Next, specific SIF design details for tripping medium-voltage switchgear breakers will be analyzed in the context of achieving a certain integrity level. Parameters to be considered include hardware fault tolerance requirements, voting, available diagnostics, energize vs. de-energize to trip shutdown circuits, certified equipment vs. proven-in-use, and alternate means of shutdown (including manual intervention and protective relaying). This paper will also analyze the common electrical equipment that is shared among potential protection layers used to trip the same breaker, and determine how much credit can be taken considering common cause failure. Finally, inspection, test, and preventive maintenance (ITPM) of medium-voltage switchgear will be discussed as a means for maintaining the electrical equipment in the “as good as new” condition.     

Forced dispersion of LNG vapor with water curtain

Installation of effective safety measures to prevent and mitigate an accidental LNG release is critical. Water curtains are usually inexpensive, simple and reliable and currently have been recognized as an efficient technique to control and mitigate various hazards in the process industries including LNG industry. Actions of a water spray consist of a combination of several physical mechanisms. Detailed analysis of the complex mechanisms and the effects of water spray features to control and mitigate potential LNG vapor cloud are still unclear. This paper discusses the experimental research conducted by MKOPSC to study the physical phenomena involved and the effect of different types of water curtains parameters when applied for LNG vapor. The data from medium scale out-door experiments at the Brayton Fire Training School (BFTF), Texas, are summarized here to understand the relative importance of induced mechanical mixing effects, dilution with air, and heat transfer between water droplets and the LNG vapor. Field test results have determined that water curtains can reduce the concentration of the LNG vapor cloud. Due to the water curtain mechanisms of entrainment of air, dilution of vapor with entrained air, transfer of momentum and heat to the gas cloud, water curtain can disperse LNG vapor cloud to some extent.     

Impact of proposed changes in IESTI equations for short-term dietary exposure to pesticides from Australian and Codex perspective

ABSTRACT

In 2015 a scientific workshop was held in Geneva, where updating the four equations for estimating the short-term dietary exposure (International Estimated Short Term Intake, IESTI) to pesticides was suggested. The impact of these proposed changes on the exposure was studied by using residue data and large portion consumption data from Codex and Australia. For the Codex data, the exposure increased by a median factor of 2.5 per commodity when changing to the proposed IESTI equations. The increase in exposure was highest for bulked and blended food commodities (case 3 equations), followed by medium-sized food commodities (case 2a equations) and small- and large-sized food commodities (case 1 and case 2b equations). For the Australian data, out of 184 maximum residue limit (MRL) large portion combinations showing acute exposures below the acute reference dose (ARfD) with the current IESTI equations, 23 exceeded the ARfD with the proposed IESTI equations (12%). The percentage exceeding the ARfD was higher for the Australian MRL large portion combinations (12% of 184) than for those of Codex (1.3% of 8,366). However, the percentage MRL loss in the Australian dataset may not be representative of all pesticide MRLs since it concerns six pesticides only, specifically selected to elucidate the potential effects of the use of the proposed IESTI equations. For the Codex data, the increase in exposure using the proposed equations resulted in a small increased loss of 2.6% of the 1,110 MRLs estimated by the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR): 1.4% of the MRLs were already not acceptable with the current equations, 4.0% of the MRLs were not acceptable with the newly proposed equations. Our study revealed that case 3 commodities may be impacted more by the proposed changes than other commodities. This substantiates one of the conclusions of the Geneva workshop to gather information on bulking and blending practices in order to refine MRL setting and dietary risk assessment for case 3 commodities where possible.     

Evaluation of Terrestrial and Streamside Salamander Monitoring Techniques at Shenandoah National Park

In response to concerns about amphibian declines, a study evaluating and validating amphibian monitoring techniques was initiated in Shenandoah and Big Bend National Parks in the spring of 1998. We evaluate precision, bias, and efficiency of several sampling methods for terrestrial and streamside salamanders in Shenandoah National Park and assess salamander abundance in relation to environmental variables, notably soil and water pH. Terrestrial salamanders, primarily redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus), were sampled by searching under cover objects during the day in square plots (10 to 35 m²). We compared population indices (mean daily and total counts) with adjusted population estimates from capture-recapture. Analyses suggested that the proportion of salamanders detected (p) during sampling varied among plots, necessitating the use of adjusted population estimates. However, adjusted population estimates were less precise than population indices, and may not be efficient in relating salamander populations to environmental variables. In future sampling, strategic use of capture-recapture to verify consistency of p's among sites may be a reasonable compromise between the possibility of bias in estimation of population size and deficiencies due to inefficiency associated with the estimation of p. The streamside two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata) was surveyed using four methods: leaf litter refugia bags, 1 m² quadrats, 50 × 1 m visual encounter transects, and electric shocking. Comparison of survey methods at nine streams revealed congruent patterns of abundance among sites, suggesting that relative bias among the methods is similar, and that choice of survey method should be based on precision and logistical efficiency. Redback and two-lined salamander abundance were not significantly related to soil or water pH, respectively.     

Process Based Modelling of Phosphorus Losses from Arable Land

Improved understanding of temporal and spatial Phosphorus (P) discharge variations is needed for improved modelling and prioritisation of abatement strategies that take into account local conditions . This study is aimed at developing modelling of agricultural Phosphorus losses with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and to compare the accuracy of a detailed process-based model with a rainfall-runoff coefficient-based model. The process-based SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was implemented for five river basins in central Sweden, and results compared with the rainfall-runoff coefficient-based model WATSHMAN (Watershed Management System) for one of these river basins. Parameter settings and attribute values were adapted to Scandinavian soil conditions, crops and management practices. Model performance regarding flow dynamics was overall satisfactory. Comparable results were achieved at several scales. The modelled P load was of high accuracy for the days when monitoring data were available for validation, generally once a month. Modelled monthly P load did not fit as well with averaged monthly monitoring load values, mainly since monthly monitoring often partly or entirely misses the peak flows. The comparison of SWAT and WATSHMAN gave slightly better results for the process-based model (SWAT). Better spatial resolution for input data such as Soil-P content and agricultural management practices will be required to reach modelling results that enable identification of measures adapted to local conditions.