On the Decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the Use of Ornithological Literature to Document Long-Term Population Trends

Abstract: Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (  Euphagus carolensis ) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 56% of the pre-1920 published accounts, 19% of the 1921–1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951–1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Prediction models for the flash point of pure components

The flash point for a liquid is defined as the lowest temperature at which its vapor forms a spontaneously ignitable mixture when brought in contact with air. Having a good estimation of the flash point temperature at normal conditions is relevant because it is one of the main properties used to characterize fire and explosion hazards for liquids. Most of predictive correlations in the literature include a physical effect by including the normal boiling temperature in their formulation. To achieve combustion, sufficient evaporation is required and then a part of the liberated energy from the combustion is used to support the evaporation. Thus the evaporation energy and a chemical effect given by the heat of reaction are incorporated in this work. It is firstly verified that the relation between the flash point temperature and the normal boiling temperature tends to be a constant. Thus a heuristic approach based on 611 chemical species of diverse families indicates that this relation is around 0.75. The dispersion of the error has been reduced by using two proposed correlations where both physical and chemical properties are included in the model. In particular, the second equation is based on the group contributions method, which has been developed for alkanes. This method is in fact a combination of the group contributions method and the first model to overcome the difficulties in predicting isomeric differences.     

An approach for risk reduction (methodology) based on optimizing the facility layout and siting in toxic gas release scenarios

In this work, a new approach to optimize facility layout for toxic release is presented. By integrating a risk analysis in the optimization formulation, we propose a safer assignment for facility layout and siting. Accompanying with the economical concepts used in a plant layout, the new model considers the cost of willing to avoid a fatality, i.e. the potential injury cost due to accidents associated with toxic release near residential areas. The proposed formulation incorporates a real meteorological data to calculate the injury risk through the probit model and Monte Carlo simulation using dense gas dispersion modeling (DEGADIS). The overall problem was initially modeled as a disjunctive program where the coordinates of each facility and cost-related variables are the main unknowns. Then, the convex hull approach was used to reformulate the problem as a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Program (MINLP) that identifies potential layouts by minimizing overall costs. This approach gives the coordinates of each facility, and estimates for the total length of pipes, the land area, and the selection of safety devices. Finally, the 3D-computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to compare between the initial layout and the final layout. Moreover, analyses of separation distances fr2om hazard facilities and hindrance effects will be discussed based on the approach used in this work.     

Multiplex approach for screening genetic markers of microbial indicators.

Genetic markers are expected to provide better specificity in epidemiological studies and potentially serve as better indicators of waterborne pathogens. Methods used to assess genetic markers of emerging microbial indicators include pulsed field gel electrophoresis, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and microarrays. This paper outlines a high-throughput approach to screen for such genetic markers using a set of theoretical and experimental screening tools. The theoretical screening involves evaluating genes related to the ribosomal RNA and specific functions from emerging indicator groups, followed by experimental validation with appropriate sampling schemes and high-throughput and economical screening methods, such as microarrays, real time PCR, and on-chip PCR. Analysis of a wide range of samples covering temporal variability in location, host, and waterborne disease outbreaks is essential. The proposed approach is expected to shorten the time and cost associated with searching for new genetic markers of emerging indicators by at least 10-fold.     

Desorption characteristics of kaolin clay contaminated with zinc from electrokinetic soil processing

A number of bench scale laboratory column tests were carried out using a newly designed and developed electrokinetic cell to investigate the fundamental behavior of zinc-spiked kaolin clay subjected to an electric field. Laboratory investigations focused on (i) zinc migration by the combined effects of electromigration and electro-osmosis and (ii) the electrically induced desorption characteristics of zinc-contaminated kaolin that occurred during processing. The correlations of the applied voltage gradient, electro-osmotic flow rate, and the development of a pH gradient were examined and evaluated. The results showed that the removal efficiency was high during the early stage of processing due to rapid desorption by electrokinetic effects in the cathode region. However, the majority of zinc migrating from the anode was precipitated due to the high pH environment in the cathode region.     

A formulation to optimize the risk reduction process based on LOPA

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to improve the computational use of the layer of protection analysis (LOPA). For a given set of independent protection layers to be implemented in a process, the proposed optimization model is solved to: a) Include costs associated with the different prevention, protection and mitigation devices, and b) Satisfy the risk level typically specified in the LOPA analysis through the occurrence probability. The underline purpose focuses on improving the analysis process and decision making to obtain the optimal solution in the safeguards selection that satisfies the requirements to be considered as IPL’s. The optimization is based on economic and risk tolerance criteria. As a first stage of this proposal, the safety instrumented system (SIS) design is optimized so that the selection of SIS components minimizes the risk and satisfies the safety integrity level (SIL) requirements. A case study is presented to validate the whole proposed approach.