Confronting socially generated uncertainty in adaptive management

As more and more organizations with responsibility for natural resource management adopt adaptive management as the rubric in which they wish to operate, it becomes increasingly important to consider the sources of uncertainty inherent in their endeavors. Without recognizing that uncertainty originates both in the natural world and in human undertakings, efforts to manage adaptively at the least will prove frustrating and at the worst will prove damaging to the very natural resources that are the management targets. There will be more surprises and those surprises potentially may prove at the very least unwanted and at the worst devastating. We illustrate how acknowledging uncertainty associated with the natural world is necessary but not sufficient to avoid surprise using case studies of efforts to manage three wildlife species; Hector's Dolphins, American Alligators and Pallid Sturgeon. Three characteristics of indeterminism are salient to all of them; non-stationarity, irreducibility and an inability to define objective probabilities. As an antidote, we recommend employing a holistic treatment of indeterminism, that includes recognizing that uncertainty originates in ecological systems and in how people perceive, interact and decide about the natural world of which they are integral players.     

Dietary exposure of three passerine species to PCDD/DFs from the Chippewa, Tittabawassee, and Saginaw River floodplains, Midland, Michigan, USA

Dietary exposure of house wrens (Troglodytes aedon), tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis) to polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) near Midland, Michigan (USA) was evaluated based on site-specific data, including concentrations of residues in bolus samples and individual invertebrate orders and dietary compositions by study species. Site-specific dietary compositions for the three species were similar to those reported in the literature, but differed in their relative proportions of some dietary items. Oligocheata (non-depurated) and Brachycera (Diptera) contained the greatest average concentrations of ??PCDD/DFs of the major site-specific dietary items collected via food web-based sampling. Average ingestion values of ??PCDD/DFs from site-specific bolus-based and food web-based dietary concentrations for nestlings at study areas (SAs) were 6- to 20-fold and 2- to 9-fold greater than at proximally located reference areas (RAs), respectively. Average ingestion values of total 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TEQ_WHO???Avian) from site-specific bolus-based and food web-based dietary concentrations for nestlings at SAs were 31- to 121-fold and 9- to 64-fold greater than at proximally located RAs, respectively. Estimates of ??PCDD/DFs and TEQ_WHO???Avian tissue concentrations based on nestling dietary exposures were greater than those measured. Plausible explanations include nestling metabolism of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran and assimilation rates of less than the 70% assumed to occur over the nestling growth period. Profiles of the relative concentrations of individual PCDD/DF congeners in samples of invertebrates and bolus at SAs on the Tittabawassee River downstream of the source of contamination were dominated by 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-octachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (22% to 44%) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran (18% to 50%).     

Two unrelated fetuses with ITPR1 missense variants and fetal hydrops

We describe two fetuses from unrelated families with likely pathogenic variants in ITPR1 that presented with nonimmune fetal hydrops. Trio exome sequencing revealed a de novo heterozygous likely pathogenic missense variant c.7636G > A (p.Val2531Met) in ITPR1 (NM_001378452.1) in proband 1 and a de novo heterozygous likely pathogenic missense variant c.34G > A [p.Gly12Arg] in proband 2. Variants in ITPR1 have been associated with several genetic conditions, including spinocerebellar ataxia 15, spinocerebellar ataxia 29, and Gillespie syndrome. Our report on two patients details a previously undescribed severe fetal presentation of nonimmune hydrops fetalis associated with missense variants in the ITPR1 gene.     

Temperature Dependent Depuration of Norovirus GII and Tulane Virus from Oysters (Crassostrea gigas)

Raw oysters are considered a culinary delicacy but are frequently the culprit in food-borne norovirus (NoV) infections. As commercial depuration procedures are currently unable to efficiently eliminate NoV from oysters, an optimisation of the process should be considered. This study addresses the ability of elevated water temperatures to enhance the elimination of NoV and Tulane virus (TuV) from Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas). Both viruses were experimentally bioaccumulated in oysters, which were thereafter depurated at 12 °C and 17 °C for 4 weeks. Infectious TuV and viral RNA were monitored weekly for 28 days by TCID₅₀ and (PMAxx-) RT-qPCR, respectively. TuV RNA was more persistent than NoV and decreased by?<?0.5 log₁₀ after 14 days, while NoV reductions were already?>?1.0 log₁₀ at this time. For RT-qPCR there was no detectable benefit of elevated water temperatures or PMAxx for either virus (p?>?0.05). TuV TCID₅₀ decreased steadily, and reductions were significantly different between the two temperatures (p?<?0.001). This was most evident on days 14 and 21 when reductions at 17 °C were 1.3–1.7 log₁₀ higher than at 12 °C. After 3 weeks, reductions?>?3.0 log₁₀ were observed at 17 °C, while at 12 °C reductions did not exceed 1.9 log₁₀. The length of depuration also had an influence on virus numbers. TuV reductions increased from?<?1.0 log₁₀ after seven days to?>?4.0 log₁₀ after 4 weeks. This implies that an extension of the depuration period to more than seven days, possibly in combination with elevated water temperatures, may be beneficial for the inactivation and removal of viral pathogens.

     

Monitoring perchlorate exposure and thyroid hormone status among raccoons inhabiting a perchlorate-contaminated site

Perchlorate is a water soluble anion that is readily accumulated in vegetation. It inhibits uptake of iodide into thyroid gland tissue, thereby reducing production of thyroid hormones. Potential raccoon food items including berries, fish, and vegetation collected at a contaminated site contained quantifiable concentrations of perchlorate as determined by ion chromatography. Therefore, we monitored resident raccoons for exposure to perchlorate by examining plasma perchlorate and thyroid hormone concentrations. Resulting analytical data failed to demonstrate perchlorate exposure among raccoons that likely consumed food items collected along perchlorate-contaminated water bodies. There were no correlations between triiodothyronine or thyroxine and thyroid stimulating hormone concentrations, but triiodothyronine concentrations in raccoon plasma were significantly higher in 2000 than in 2001 (p = 0.0081). These data suggest that natural attenuation and remedial efforts initiated in January of 2001 may have reduced perchlorate exposure among raccoons inhabiting this site from 2000 to 2001. Temporal, spatial, and analytical factors limited our ability to quantify exposure among raccoons, however, our data do not indicate that raccoons currently inhabiting this site are at risk for significant exposure to perchlorate and subsequent effects.     

Effect of gervital in attenuating hepatotoxicity caused by methotrexate or azathioprine in adult albino rats

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Methotrexate (MTX) and azathioprine (AZA) are chemotherapeutic, antimetabolic, and immunosuppressive agents with substantial risks such as oxidative...     

Behavior of potentially toxic elements from stoker-boiler fly ash in Interior Alaska: paired batch leaching and solid-phase characterization

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Despite significant investigation of fly ash spills and mineralogical controls on the release of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) from fly ash,...     

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.     

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: A comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO₂ concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.     

Managing plant population spread: prediction and analysis using a simple model

Models can be used to direct the management of population spread for the control of invasives or to encourage species of conservation value. Analytical models are attractive because of their theoretical basis and limited data requirements, but there is concern that their simplicity may limit their practical utility. We address the applied use of simple models in a study of a declining annual herb, Rhinanthus minor. We parameterized a population-spread model using field data on demography and dispersal for four management systems: grazed only (GR), hay-cut once (H1), hay-cut twice (H2), and hay-cut with autumn grazing (HG). Within a replicated experiment we measured spread rates of introduced R. minor populations over eight years. The modeled and measured spread rates were very similar in terms of both patterns of management effects and absolute values, so that in both cases HG > H2, H1 > GR. The treatments affected both dispersal and demography (establishment and survival) and so we used decomposition approaches to analyze the major causes of differences in population spread. Increased dispersal under hay-cutting was more important than demographic changes and accounted for approximately 70% of the differences in spread rate between the hay-cut and grazed-only treatments. Furthermore, management effects on the tail of the dispersal curve were by far the most critical in governing spread. This study suggests that simple models can be used to inform practical conservation management, and we demonstrate straightforward uses of our model to predict the impacts of different management strategies. While simple models can give accurate projections, we emphasize that they must be parameterized with high-quality data gathered at the appropriate spatial scale.