Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India

Introduction

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation.

Method

The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models.

Results

The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations.

Conclusions

The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study.     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.     

Falls and fall prevention programmes in developing countries: environmental scan for the adaptation of the Canadian Falls prevention curriculum for developing countries

Problem

Falls in older persons in developing countries are poorly understood, and falls prevention and health promotion programmes for this population are largely lacking.

Methods

A systematic review was carried out of relevant literature on falls and prevention programmes, and falls prevention education, and a scan undertaken of health promotion programmes for older persons in a representative country - South Africa.

Results

Studies on the risk and prevalence of falls are largely retrospective and hospital-based, with varied methodology, including study period, sampling method and sample size. Falls prevalence is based largely on self-reports in studies on general trauma in all age groups. Falls incidence varies from 10.1% to 54%. No reports could be traced on sustained falls prevention or health promotion programmes.

Conclusion

Scant research has been conducted and little preventive education offered on falls in older persons. Adaptation of the Canadian Falls Prevention Curriculum for developing countries will help to fill gaps in knowledge and practice.

Impact on industry

With rapid increase in the populations of older persons in developing countries, research on age related disorders such as falls is required to guide policy and management of falls.     

Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults

Background

Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ).

Methods

Adults age 65 + (n = 40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a “gold standard” of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk.

Results

There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa = .875, p < .0001). Individual item kappa values ranged from .305-.832. After dropping one FRQ item (vision risk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa = .139, p = .321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity.

Conclusions

The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls.     

Modelling spills of water-reactive chemicals

This paper describes part of a programme of work undertaken at the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) to investigate the behaviour of selected water-reactive chemicals. Following an accidental release, such substances react exothermically with any water present, generating acidic vapours. The STAWaRS (Source Term Assessment of Water Reactive Substances) software was developed for the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) by ESR Technology to model this complex process. The aims of the study described here were to provide experimental validation of the heats of hydrolysis used within STAWaRS, and to perform sensitivity studies on selected STAWaRS input parameters.The heat of hydrolysis of acetyl chloride was measured and showed good correlation with the value used within STAWaRS. Some of the variables that influence the severity of acetyl chloride spills are examined, with reference to predictions made by the STAWaRS model. The heats of hydrolysis of titanium tetrachloride previously measured at HSL are also discussed, and the effect of adopting these experimentally derived values for modelling spills is shown for a hypothetical land use planning case. This study demonstrates the importance of using experimentally validated values for STAWaRS input parameters.     

Numerical simulation of propane detonation in medium and large scale geometries

A modelling strategy has been developed for consequence analysis of medium and large scale gaseous detonation. The model is based on the solution of Euler equations with one-step chemistry. The Van Leer flux limited method which is a total variation diminishing scheme is used for shock capturing. Preliminary calculations were firstly conducted for small domains with fine grids which resolve the wave, relatively coarse grids which have less than 10 grids across the wave and coarse grids in which the minimum grid size is larger than the wave thickness to ensure that the reaction scheme has been properly tuned to capture the correct detonation pressure, temperature and velocity in the resolutions used in the different cases. The model was firstly tested against a medium scale detonation test in a shock tube with U-bends. Reasonably good agreement is achieved on detonation pressure and mean shock wave velocities at different measuring segments of the tube. Following the validation, the detonation of a hypothetical planar propane-air cloud is simulated. The predictions uncovered some interesting features of such large scale detonation phenomena which are of significance in the safety context, especially for accidental investigations. The findings from the present analysis are in line with the forensic evidence on damages in some historic accidents and challenges previous analysis of a major accident in which forensic evidence suggested localised detonation but was considered as the consequence of fire storms by the investigation team.     

Effects of significant damage of flame gap surfaces in flameproof electrical apparatus on flame gap efficiency

Electrical apparatus for use in the presence of explosive gas atmospheres has to be specially designed to prevent the apparatus from igniting the gas. Flameproof design is one of several options, and one requirement is then that any holes and slits in the enclosure wall be designed to prevent a possible gas explosion inside the enclosure from being transmitted to an explosive gas cloud outside it. Current standards (IEC) require that joint surfaces have a surface roughness of <6.3 μm. Any damaged joint surface has be restored to this quality. The present investigation has demonstrated that flame gap surfaces in flameproof electrical apparatuses can suffer considerable mechanical and corrosive damage before the flame gaps no longer function satisfactorily. In some cases very significant mechanical surface damage in fact improves the gap performance. This indicates that current high costs of repairing and replacing flameproof electrical apparatus in process plants offshore and onshore can be reduced considerably without any increase of the explosion risk.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.