Defining and analyzing health system resilience in rural jurisdictions

Environment Systems and Decisions - Rural areas face well known and distinctive health care challenges that can limit their resilience in the face of health emergencies such as the COVID-19...     

Determination of phenol,cresols and xylenols in workplace air using XAD‐2 sorbent cartridges

A method for sampling and analysis of phenolic compounds in workplace atmospheres using Amberlite XAD‐2 sorbent tubes has been laboratory and field tested. After extraction of the adsorbed phenols with methylene chloride, the concentrated extract was analyzed by capillary column gas chromatography coupled with a flame ionization detector or a mass spectrometer. For a 3L air sample, the method has a detection limit for phenol, cresols, alkyl‐substituted phenols and xylenols of 0.3 mg/m³ using gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC/FID) analysis and 0.07 mg/m³ using gas chromatography mass spectroscopy/selected ion monitoring GC‐MS/SIM. Evaluation tests conducted in the laboratory indicated recoveries >85% for a wide range of phenols, cresols, xylenols and other alkyl‐substituted phenols and resorcinol. Sampling conditions were established to ensure that no breakthrough occurred for a predetermined sample volume of three (3) liters even in humid atmospheres. Stability tests indicated that for storage of up to 2 weeks at 4°C, only resorcinol showed a significant reduction in sample recovery. The proposed method and NIOSH Method 3502 were compared for the determination of phenol concentrations in air samples collected at a plant processing phenolic resins. Phenol was positively identified in the XAD sample using GC‐MS/SIM and was detected at concentrations of 40–50% of the total phenols detected using NIOSH Method 3502. This difference is attributed to the airborne paniculate matter which is known to contain bisphenols that will contribute to the total phenolic content sampled in Method 3502, but not on the XAD sample.     

Evidence for Ph Insensitivity in Some Insects Inhabiting Peat Pools in the Loch Fleet Catchment

The impact of liming on the insects associated with peat pools was studied in the Loch Fleet catchment in 1991 and 1992. Fifty-six taxa were identified from 121 timed samples. Despite the raised pH associated with liming in 1986, the population densities of Odonata, Hemiptera and Coleoptera appeared to be unaffected when compared with those of untreated peat pools in the same area. the study demonstrated the existence of two main types of community, that of the steep-sided edges of pools, dominated by odonate nymphs and large species of beetles, and that of the shallower pools, dominated by Hydroporus species (Col., Dytiscidae).     

Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes

If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries' behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower, treaties typically fail to help countries cooperate to avoid catastrophe, sustaining only modest cuts in emissions. These results are unaffected by uncertainty about the impact of catastrophe. By contrast, uncertainty about the catastrophic threshold normally causes coordination to collapse. Whether the probability density function has “thin” or “fat” tails makes little difference.     

The use of polymerase chain reaction for the identification of sciaenid eggs

Traditionally, sciaenid eggs have been identified based on morphological characteristics such as size, number of oil globules and/or pigmentation patterns. Identification of sciaenid eggs by these procedures is time consuming and often inaccurate due to considerable egg size overlap among species. The utilization of molecular techniques for the identification of economically important species has become a fundamental component in ecological studies involving fish eggs and larvae. This study reports the development of a series of both multiplex and individual polymerase chain reactions to identify the eggs of 11 sciaenid species commonly found in the Gulf of Mexico and estuaries near Port Aransas and Corpus Christi, TX, USA. Following method development, the discriminatory power of the assay was first determined with samples from adult fish collected from Aransas and Corpus Christi Bays, Galveston Bay and the lower Laguna Madre in northern Mexico. Most (97%) of these fishes were correctly identified to the level of species. To demonstrate the applicability of the assay, wild fish eggs were collected and analyzed from the Aransas Pass tidal inlet from September through December 2005. During this period, the eggs of four target species were positively identified which was in keeping with current knowledge regarding the spawning areas and seasons of these sciaenids based on the presence of mature females, eggs and/or larvae. Future use of this method can provide valuable information to better discriminate spawning sites and seasons of these species.     

Modeling the role of macroalgae in a shallow sub-estuary of Narragansett Bay, RI (USA)

Proliferation of macroalgal mats is a frequent consequence of nutrient-driven eutrophication in shallow, photic coastal marine ecosystems. These macroalgae have the potential to significantly modify water quality, plankton productivity, nutrient cycling, and dissolved oxygen dynamics. We developed a model for Ulva lactuca and Gracilaria tikvahiae in Greenwich Bay, RI (USA), a shallow sub-estuary of Narragansett Bay, as part of a larger estuarine ecosystem model. The model predicts the biomass of both species in units of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus as a function of primary production, respiration, grazing, decay, and physical exchange, with particular attention to the effects of biomass layering on light attenuation and suppression of metabolic rates. The model successfully reproduced the magnitude and seasonal cycle of area-weighted and peak biomass in Greenwich Bay along with tissue C:N ratios, and highlighted the importance of grazing and inclusion of self-limitation primarily in the form of self-shading to overcome an order of magnitude difference in rates of production and respiration. Inclusion of luxury nutrient uptake demonstrated the importance of internal nutrient storage in fueling production when nutrients are limiting. Macroalgae were predicted to contribute a small fraction of total system primary production and their removal had little effect on predicted water quality. Despite a lack of data for calibration and a fair amount of sensitivity to individual parameter values, which highlights the need for further autecological studies to constrain formulations, the model successfully predicted macroalgal biomass dynamics and their role in ecosystem functioning. Our formulations should be exportable to other temperate systems where macroalgae occur in abundance.     

Natal site and offshore swimming influence fitness and long-distance ocean transport in young sea turtles

Although long-distance transport of marine organisms is constrained by numerous oceanic and biological factors, some species have evolved life-histories reliant on such movements. We examine the factors that promote long-distance transport in a transoceanic migrant, young loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), from the southeastern U.S. Empirical data from near-surface buoys and simulations in two ocean circulation models indicated that passive drifters are often retained for long periods shoreward of oceanic fronts that delineate coastal and offshore waters. Further simulations revealed that offshore swimming aided newly hatched turtles in moving past fronts and increased turtles’ probability of survival, reaching distant foraging grounds, and encountering favorable temperatures. Swimming was most beneficial in regions that were more favorable under scenarios assuming passive drift. These results have broad implications for understanding the movement processes of many marine species, highlighting likely retention of more planktonic species and potential for dispersal in more nektonic species.     

How do dispersal costs and habitat selection influence realized population connectivity?

Despite the importance of dispersal for population connectivity, dispersal is often costly to the individual. A major impediment to understanding connectivity has been a lack of data combining the movement of individuals and their survival to reproduction in the new habitat (realized connectivity). Although mortality often occurs during dispersal (an immediate cost), in many organisms costs are paid after dispersal (deferred costs). It is unclear how such deferred costs influence the mismatch between dispersal and realized connectivity. Through a series of experiments in the field and laboratory, we estimated both direct and indirect deferred costs in a marine bryozoan (Bugula neritina). We then used the empirical data to parameterize a theoretical model in order to formalize predictions about how dispersal costs influence realized connectivity. Individuals were more likely to colonize poor-quality habitat after prolonged dispersal durations. Individuals that colonized poor-quality habitat performed poorly after colonization because of some property of the habitat (an indirect deferred cost) rather than from prolonged dispersal per se (a direct deferred cost). Our theoretical model predicted that indirect deferred costs could result in nonlinear mismatches between spatial patterns of potential and realized connectivity. The deferred costs of dispersal are likely to be crucial for determining how well patterns of dispersal reflect realized connectivity. Ignoring these deferred costs could lead to inaccurate predictions of spatial population dynamics.     

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.     

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.