Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Cost‐effectiveness of conservation payment schemes for species with different range sizes

Payments to compensate landowners for carrying out costly land‐use measures that benefit endangered biodiversity have become an important policy instrument. When designing such payments, it is important to take into account that spatially connected habitats are more valuable for many species than isolated ones. One way to incentivize provision of connected habitats is to offer landowners an agglomeration bonus, that is, a bonus on top of payments they are receiving to conserve land if the land is spatially connected. Researchers have compared the cost‐effectiveness of the agglomeration bonus with 2 alternatives: an all‐or‐nothing, agglomeration payment, where landowners receive a payment only if the conserved land parcels have a certain level of spatial connectivity, and a spatially homogeneous payment, where landowners receive a payment for conserved land parcels irrespective of their location. Their results show the agglomeration bonus is rarely the most cost‐effective option, and when it is, it is only slightly better than one of the alternatives. This suggests that the agglomeration bonus should not be given priority as a policy design option. However, this finding is based on consideration of only 1 species. We examined whether the same applied to 2 species, one for which the homogeneous payment is best and the other for which the agglomeration payment is most cost‐effective. We modified a published conceptual model so that we were able to assess the cost‐effectiveness of payment schemes for 2 species and applied it to a grassland bird and a grassland butterfly in Germany that require the same habitat but have different spatial‐connectivity needs. When conserving both species, the agglomeration bonus was more cost‐effective than the agglomeration and the homogeneous payment; thus, we showed that as a policy the agglomeration bonus is a useful conservation‐payment option.     

Health implications of radon distribution in living rooms and bedrooms in U.K. dwellings--a case study in Northamptonshire

Environmental radon exposure of residents of domestic premises in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere in Europe is estimated on the basis of the measured radon concentrations in, and the relative occupancies of, the principal living room and bedroom. While studies on radon concentration variability in the individual units in apartment blocks in various countries have been described, little data has been reported on variability in two-storey single-family dwellings, and the majority of extant studies consolidate living room and bedroom data early in the analysis. To investigate this further, detailed analysis was made of radon concentration data from a set of thirty-four homes situated in areas of Northamptonshire known to exhibit high radon levels. All homes were of typical UK construction of brick/block/stone walls under a pitched tile/slate roof. Approximately 50% of the sample were detached houses, the remainder being semi-detached (duplex) or terraced (row-house). Around 25% of the sample possessed cellars, while 12% were single-storey dwellings (bungalows), reflecting the typical incidence of this type of dwelling in England. In the two-storey homes, all monitored bedrooms were on the upper floor. Distribution of the ratios of bedroom/living room radon concentrations (BR/LR ratio) in individual properties was left-skewed (mean 0.67, median 0.73, range 0.05-1.05) with a tail extending to just above 1.0. The mean is consistent with the outcome of earlier extensive studies in England, while the variability depends principally on the characteristics of the property, and not on seasonal factors. In a small set of homes, the BR/LR ratio was anomalously low, (mean 0.3). BR/LR ratios in single-storey homes clustered around a value of 1.0, indicating that house design, rather than lifestyle, is the dominant factor in determining bedroom radon concentrations. Homes with higher mean annual radon concentrations showed lower BR/LR ratios, supporting our proposal that, in some homes, radon emanation from building materials may comprise a significant component of the overall radon level.     

Intra-cultivar variability of the soil-to-grain transfer of fallout 137Cs and 90Sr for winter wheat

Differences between the root uptake of fallout radionuclides by different cultivars ('inter-cultivar' variability) growing on the same field may be influenced not only by genetic differences of the cultivars, but also by the spatial variability of the soil-to-grain transfer within the cultivation area of each cultivar. This 'intra-cultivar' variability was investigated in 2001 and 2002 for 137Cs and 90Sr using three winter wheat cultivars with four replicates for each cultivar at three different sites in Bavaria, Germany. The intra-cultivar variability proved to be in the same range as the inter-cultivar variability which was determined earlier at the same sites for both radionuclides. An ANOVA of the 137Cs data set revealed that the variability of the 137Cs soil-to-grain transfer was caused by the soil and climate (year) at the field sites and the interaction of cultivar and field. A significant contribution of the factor 'cultivar' alone to the variability could not be detected. This may be due to the complex environmental conditions to which plants are exposed in field experiments. To find wheat cultivars with minimal uptake of fallout radionuclides it may be better to examine the molecular mechanisms of their root uptake in order to identify targets for breeding "safer" plants.     

Stable and radioiodine concentrations in cow milk: dependence on iodine intake

For testing the potential use of stable iodine as a countermeasure to reduce radioiodine transfer to milk, concentrations of stable iodine and radioiodine in the milk of dairy cows fed different amounts of stable iodine were measured. The results indicated that, compared to a normal average stable iodine intake of about 20 mg d(-1) for cows, low iodine dietary intake (<1.5 mg d(-1)) resulted in a reduced transfer of radioiodine to milk by 25%, varying stable iodine intakes in the range of 10-500 mg d(-1) did have no significant effect; at stable iodine intake rates above 1000 mg I d(-1), a reduction by a factor of approximately two was achieved. The high dietary iodine intakes--being about 100 times the normal iodine supply--required to reduce the radioiodine transfer significantly, will result in stable iodine concentrations in milk in excess of advised or legal limits for human consumption. Nevertheless, the provision of stable iodine via the milk pathway might be considered for emergency situations when stable iodine is used as a preventative measure for dose reduction to humans.     

The transfer of 137Cs and 90Sr from feed to rabbits

Radiological assessment of the impact of nuclear weapons testing on the local population in the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) requires comprehensive site-specific information on radionuclide behaviour in the environment. However, information on radionuclide behaviour in the conditions of the STS is rather sparse and, in particular, there are no data in the literature on parameters of radionuclide transfer from feed to rabbit products which have been identified as contributors to internal dose to the inhabitants. The transfer of (137)Cs and (90)Sr to rabbit meat was studied under laboratory conditions in a controlled experiment with 32 locally bred rabbits maintained in the Kazakh Agricultural Research Institute. The equilibrium transfer coefficients for (137)Cs and (90)Sr from feed to rabbit meat were estimated to be 0.4 d kg(-1) and 0.15 d kg(-1), respectively. The biological half-lives were estimated to be 0.1 d for (137)Cs and 0.14 d for (90)Sr. Whereas for (137)Cs the distribution in the body is relatively homogeneous, there are large differences between the organs and tissues for (90)Sr for which, as expected, the highest concentrations were found in bone.     

The transfer of 239/240Pu to cow milk

In summer 1993 we measured the transfer of (239/240)Pu to milk from herbage from a pasture located 5 km from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. In one treatment cows were allowed to graze freely on the pasture. In a second treatment, cows were fed herbage collected from the pasture in stalls. The milk transfer coefficient; F(m) did not vary significantly between treatments and the mean value of 7.5x10(-6)d l(-1) was higher than previously reported values. Despite many values of F(m) for Pu in the literature we identified few relevant original data sets. Transfer coefficient values for Pu are only appropriate when used in conjunction with a specified time period or an appropriate model which allows for the biological half-life. We recommend for screening purposes an F(m) value of 1x10(-5)d l(-1) for Pu, with an order of magnitude lower value being appropriate for cows which are only exposed for one grazing season.