A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Prediction of Total Sediment Load in Sand‐Bed Rivers in Korea Using Lateral Distribution Method

A new method for numerically predicting the total sediment load in a river is proposed. The method can be used to predict the total sediment load with information on channel geometry and slope, flow, and bed materials. The conventional method uses a 1D approach that assumes the channel has a wide rectangular shape. However, the proposed method computes depth‐averaged velocity over the width and predicts the total sediment load based on the flow computations. The new method, therefore, is expected to predict better if the flow changes significantly in the lateral direction. The proposed method was applied to three large sand‐bed rivers in Korea, where information is available regarding suspended sediment. Five formulas were tested of use in making total sediment load computations, namely Engelund‐Hansen's, Ackers‐White's, Yang's, Brownlie's, and Karim's formulas. The predicted total sediment loads are compared not only with measured data but also with results calculated using the 1D approach. Discrepancy ratios between the predicted and measured total sediment loads are given and the results are discussed.     

Active learning climate and employee errors: The moderating effects of personality traits

This study developed and tested a cross‐level model of the relationship between two components of active learning climate—enactive exploration and guided learning—and employee errors, and the moderating roles of the individual's traits of openness to experience and conscientiousness. The study examined the medical errors made by 142 resident physicians in 22 hospital departments. Results demonstrated significant interactions between climate and traits: when an individual had a low level of the trait of openness to experience, there was a curvilinear relationship between enactive exploration climate and number of errors. With a high level of openness to experience, the enactive exploration climate was positively associated with the number of errors up to a certain point. In addition, when an individual had a low level of conscientiousness, there was a negative association between guided learning climate and number of errors; with a high level of conscientiousness, there was a positive association between guided learning climate and number of errors. Thus, individual performance was better when the climate complemented the individual's lack of a trait. When the level of the individual's trait was high, the climate intensified the already pronounced trait up to an extent that impaired the individual's performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sometimes less is more: Directed coping with interpersonal stressors at work

Within the coping literature, researchers have long been interested in identifying ways in which individuals can improve their coping efforts, making them more effective and thereby reducing the harmful effects of stressful encounters. Although Lazarus and Folkman's transactional model has greatly advanced understanding of the coping process, there continues to be methodological and conceptual challenges that have hindered understanding of the mechanisms behind effective coping. Addressing these issues in the use of a novel approach of analyzing variation in coping (i.e., directed coping) at both the coping event and person coping levels, the current study examined the process of coping with work stress and the beneficial coping outcomes associated with using a directed coping strategy. A total of 143 nurses completed up to 12 weekly surveys online, reporting on weekly stressful interpersonal conflicts and how they coped with them. Results from multilevel analyses supported predictions that greater directed coping at both the level of the coping event and person is associated with improvements in occupational health outcomes even after controlling for other coping factors. Implications of these results are discussed in relation to future research on coping effectiveness and workplace applications. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Institutions for a sustainable development—experiences from EU-countries

This article is based on an international comparative study analysing innovations in national administrative institutions. Results of that research are presented and discussed here. Against the background of the institutionalising process of political institutions the study focused on innovations initiated or introduced by governments or parliaments by example of policies and politics supporting sustainable development. The countries involved in the original study were Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Three general lessons can be drawn: (1) Countries with a long tradition of integrated environmental policy-making are more open to the concept of sustainability. (2) A (institutional) “cure-all” solution does not seem to exist. It seems necessary to diffuse the concept of sustainability into all spheres of politics and society. Reaching this strategic goal requires a specific policy and polity mix. (3) Strong and well-equipped institutions result from specific policies and politics: they play a central role in promoting and intensifying sustainable development. Successful innovations integrating SD into everyday politics and policies are only a very first step though. Further improvements with regard to effective participation and public debate, global orientation of policies and the measurability of achieved progress are necessary.     

Measuring Protected‐Area Isolation and Correlations of Isolation with Land‐Use Intensity and Protection Status

Abstract: Protected areas cover over 12% of the terrestrial surface of Earth, and yet many fail to protect species and ecological processes as originally envisioned. Results of recent studies suggest that a critical reason for this failure is an increasing contrast between the protected lands and the surrounding matrix of often highly altered land cover. We measured the isolation of 114 protected areas distributed worldwide by comparing vegetation‐cover heterogeneity inside protected areas with heterogeneity outside the protected areas. We quantified heterogeneity as the contagion of greenness on the basis of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) values, for which a higher value of contagion indicates less heterogeneous land cover. We then measured isolation as the difference between mean contagion inside the protected area and mean contagion in 3 buffer areas of increasing distance from the protected‐area border. The isolation of protected areas was significantly positive in 110 of the 114 areas, indicating that vegetation cover was consistently more heterogeneous 10–20 km outside protected areas than inside their borders. Unlike previous researchers, we found that protected areas in which low levels of human activity are allowed were more isolated than areas in which high levels are allowed. Our method is a novel way to assess the isolation of protected areas in different environmental contexts and regions.     

Preserving Population Allele Frequencies in Ex Situ Conservation Programs

Abstract: Optimization of contributions of parents to progeny by minimizing the average coancestry of the progeny is an effective strategy for maintaining genetic diversity in ex situ conservation programs, but its application on the basis of molecular markers has the negative collateral effect of homogenizing the allelic frequencies at each locus. Because one of the objectives of a conservation program is to preserve the genetic composition of the original endangered population, we devised a method in which markers are used to maintain the allele frequency distribution at each locus as closely as possible to that of the native population. Contributions of parents were obtained so as to minimize changes in allele frequency for a set of molecular markers in a population of reduced size. We used computer simulations, under a range of scenarios, to assess the effectiveness of the method in comparison with methods in which contributions of minimum coancestry are sought, either making use of molecular markers or genealogical information. Our simulations indicated that the proposed method effectively maintained the original distribution of allele frequencies, particularly under strong linkage, and maintained acceptable levels of genetic diversity in the population. Nevertheless, contributions of minimum coancestry determined from pedigree information but ignoring the genealogy previous to the conservation program, was the most effective method for maintaining allelic frequencies in realistic situations.     

Building a Regionally Connected Reserve Network in a Changing and Uncertain World

Abstract: Habitat connectivity is required at large spatial scales to facilitate movement of biota in response to climatic changes and to maintain viable populations of wide‐ranging species. Nevertheless, it may require decades to acquire habitat linkages at such scales, and areas that could provide linkages are often developed before they can be reserved. Reserve scheduling methods usually consider only current threats, but threats change over time as development spreads and reaches presently secure areas. We investigated the importance of considering future threats when implementing projects to maintain habitat connectivity at a regional scale. To do so, we compared forward‐looking scheduling strategies with strategies that consider only current threats. The strategies were applied to a Costa Rican case study, where many reserves face imminent isolation and other reserves will probably become isolated in the more distant future. We evaluated strategies in terms of two landscape‐scale connectivity metrics, a pure connectivity metric and a metric of connected habitat diversity. Those strategies that considered only current threats were unreliable because they often failed to complete planned habitat linkage projects. The most reliable and effective strategies considered the future spread of development and its impact on the likelihood of completing planned habitat linkage projects. Our analyses highlight the critical need to consider future threats when building connected reserve networks over time.