Neural Network Input Selection for Hydrological Forecasting Affected by Snowmelt1

Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km²) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (Q_SM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and Q_SM failed to improve the networks.     

Tributyltin distribution and producing androgenic activity in water,sediment, and fish muscle

This study investigated the concentrations of Tributyltin (TBT) in water, sediment, and fish muscle samples taken from Kaohsiung Harbor and Kaoping River estuary, Taiwan. TBT concentrations in water and sediment samples ranged from less than 18.5 to 34.1 ng Sn L^?1 and from 2.44 to 29.7 ng Sn g^?1 weight per weight (w/w), respectively. Concentrations in the TBT‐contaminated fish muscle samples ranged from 10.8 to 79.6 ng Sn g^?1 w/w. The TBT concentrations in fish muscle were higher than those in water and sediment samples. The fish muscle/water TBT bioconcentration factor (BCF) ranged from 590 to 3363 L kg^?1. Additionally, the water samples were assessed for androgenic activity with an MCF7‐AR1 human breast cancer cell line. The androgenic activity ranged from 0.94 to 3.1 ng‐dihydrotestosterone per litre water (ng‐DHT L^?1). Higher concentrations of TBT in water and sediment samples occurred in the dry season, but the androgenic activity had higher values in the rainy season.     

Gastrointestinal Bacterial Transmission among Humans,Mountain Gorillas,and Livestock in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,Uganda

Abstract: Habitat overlap can increase the risks of anthroponotic and zoonotic pathogen transmission between humans, livestock, and wild apes. We collected Escherichia coli bacteria from humans, livestock, and mountain gorillas (Gorilla gorilla beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, from May to August 2005 to examine whether habitat overlap influences rates and patterns of pathogen transmission between humans and apes and whether livestock might facilitate transmission. We genotyped 496 E. coli isolates with repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction fingerprinting and measured susceptibility to 11 antibiotics with the disc‐diffusion method. We conducted population genetic analyses to examine genetic differences among populations of bacteria from different hosts and locations. Gorilla populations that overlapped in their use of habitat at high rates with people and livestock harbored E. coli that were genetically similar to E. coli from those people and livestock, whereas E. coli from gorillas that did not overlap in their use of habitats with people and livestock were more distantly related to human or livestock bacteria. Thirty‐five percent of isolates from humans, 27% of isolates from livestock, and 17% of isolates from gorillas were clinically resistant to at least one antibiotic used by local people, and the proportion of individual gorillas harboring resistant isolates declined across populations in proportion to decreasing degrees of habitat overlap with humans. These patterns of genetic similarity and antibiotic resistance among E. coli from populations of apes, humans, and livestock indicate that habitat overlap between species affects the dynamics of gastrointestinal bacterial transmission, perhaps through domestic animal intermediates and the physical environment. Limiting such transmission would benefit human and domestic animal health and ape conservation.     

VELOCITY AND CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTIONS OF SEDIMENT‐LADEN OPEN CHANNEL FLOW1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical model to predict both velocity and concentration distributions for sediment‐laden open channel flow is developed. Velocity profiles are derived by theoretical analysis and numerical method. Logarithmic law and semi‐empirical wake function concept are not adopted. An empirical equation for the ratio of sediment exchange and fluid diffusion coefficients is considered to solve the diffusion equation for suspended‐sediment concentration profiles. Four sets of experimental data from previous researchers are compared to numerical calculation. In the engineering applications, velocity and concentration profiles of sediment‐laden flow can be predicted simultaneously by the present model with the measured velocity and sediment‐concentration at reference level.     

WATER SUPPLY EVALUATION OF TAIWAN'S SILICON VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: The objective of this paper is to examine a deficit in water for the Hsinchu area, the location of Taiwan's “Silicon Valley.” The methods suggested in this paper to diagnose water shortage problems are simple and practical. The results show that Hsinchu is in an area without sufficient water to meet demand for domestic and industrial uses. Until the completion of the Baoshan II Reservoir in 2006, the most feasible options for the Taiwan Water Supply Corporation to offset the water deficiency in Hsinchu City over the next five years are: (a) to obtain water gratuitously from the southern Yungheshan Reservoir; (b) to import additional water at an extra charge from other sources such as the northern Shihmen Reservoir and the agricultural sector; and (c) to conduct a comprehensive water conservation program at the Hsinchu Science‐based Industrial Park.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL TOWARD RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A reliable forecasting model is essential in real‐time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real‐time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.     

TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNING FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART I: A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: In the Green Mountain state of Vermont, droughts of one form or another and of varying intensities, seventies, and areal extent are not uncommon occurrences. The 1990s were marked by at least three drought events of which the 1998 to 1999 was the most recent. In spite of this recurrence, ongoing drought monitoring and mitigative planning efforts are not as advanced as they could be and no official drought plan exists for the state. This article is the first of two in this volume. It summarizes the cascade of drought types that impacted the state during the 1998 to 1999 episode. From a number of precipitation statistics and drought indices, fine spatial scales (county or better) were found to best capture the character of drought impacts, while the weekly time step is recommended as the temporal unit around which to base planning and monitoring efforts. The companion article outlines a possible framework for drought planning efforts and highlights key constituencies to be included in the process.     

INFLUENCE OF BATHYMETRIC CHANGES ON HYDRODYNAMICS AND SALT INTRUSION IN ESTUARINE SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A vertical (laterally integrated) two‐dimensional numerical model has been applied to study the hydrodynamic characteristics and salt water intrusion in the Tanshui River estuarine system. The cross‐sectional profiles measured in 1978 and 1994 are schematized for model simulations. Detailed model calibration and verification have been conducted with water surface elevations, tidal current, salinity distributions, and residual velocities measured. The overall performance of the model is in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to study how hydrodynamics and salt water intrusion change in response to changes in bathymetry. The model simulations indicate that more tidal energy propagates into the estuarine system in 1994 because of the substantial increase in river cross‐sections. The limits of salt intrusion in 1994 extended farther inland than those in 1978. On the other hand, the extent of mangrove wetland in the lower estuary has increased over the past 20 years and is likely a result of the increased salinity in the estuary.     

The Syrian refugee crisis: how local governments and NGOs manage their image via social media

This study, based on situational crisis communication theory and set in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis, seeks first to conduct a comparative analysis of the management of online citizen engagement by local governments and non‐governmental organisations (NGOs). Second, it aims to examine the relationship between certain factors pertaining to the types of responses submitted by citizens via the social media of the aforementioned actors. The sample is composed of several Spanish local governments and NGOs belonging to Red de Municipios de Acogida de Refugiados (Local Government Network for Refugee Allocation). The main findings are that NGOs' online engagement with citizens is more than that of local governments. Notably, NGOs are much more active on their Facebook pages than are local governments. The two actors converge, though, in terms of disseminating instructive information and paying less attention to ‘basic crisis response options’. Moreover, the factors ‘content type’, ‘reputation’, and ‘woman’ affect the type of response messages sent by citizens.     

EFFECTS OF LAND COVER AND GEOLOGY ON STREAM CHEMISTRY IN WATERSHEDS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: We measured the base‐flow stream chemistry in all the major physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin. The spatial variation of stream chemistry was closely related to differences in geology and land cover among the sampled watersheds. Some stream chemistry variables were strongly affected by geological settings in the watersheds while others were more influenced by land cover. The effects of land cover differed among chemical constituents and regions. Concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, pH, total alkalinity, and conductivity were mainly functions of carbonate bedrock, especially in the Great Valley. Nitrate‐N and total dissolved N were closely related to cropland and increased as the percentage of cropland increased. The rate of increase varied from region to region with the highest in the Piedmont. Na⁺ and Cl^? were mainly affected by the percentage of developed area in a watershed, especially in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont. We observed no significant effects of region or land cover on species of phosphorus because samples were collected under base flow conditions and only dissolved forms were measured. Dissolved silicate (DSi) was not related to any other water chemistry variables. DSi increased as developed area decreased and cropland increased in the Coastal Plain, but these patterns were reversed in the Piedmont. There was no consistent pattern in the spatial variation of land cover effects on the reduced forms of N, dissolved organic P, dissolved organic matter, and K⁺.