Inferring extinction of mammals from sighting records, threats, and biological traits

For species with five or more sightings, quantitative techniques exist to test whether a species is extinct on the basis of distribution of sightings. However, 70% of purportedly extinct mammals are known from fewer than five sightings, and such models do not include some important indicators of the likelihood of extinction such as threats, biological traits, search effort, and demography. Previously, we developed a quantitative method that we based on species' traits in which we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the probability of rediscovery of species regarded as extinct. Here, we used two versions of the Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction in purportedly extinct mammals and compared the results of these two models with those of stationary Poisson, nonparametric, and Weibull sighting-distribution models. For mammals with five or more sightings, the stationary Poisson model categorized all but two critically endangered (flagged as possibly extinct) species in our data set as extinct, and results with this model were consistent with current categories of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The scores of probability of rediscovery for individual species in one version of our Cox regression model were correlated with scores assigned by the stationary Poisson model. Thus, we used this Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction of mammals with sparse records. On the basis of the Cox regression model, the most likely mammals to be rediscovered were the Montane monkey-faced bat (Pteralopex pulchra), Armenian myotis (Myotis hajastanicus), Alcorn's pocket gopher (Pappogeomys alcorni), and Wimmer's shrew (Crocidura wimmeri). The Cox model categorized two species that have recently disappeared as extinct: the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi). Our new method can be used to test whether species with few records or recent last-sighting dates are likely to be extinct.     

Decomposing the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by approximately 200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration pre-decline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.     

Stable isotope ratios of a tropical marine predator: confounding effects of nutritional status during growth

Stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen is frequently used to study the diets and foraging ecology of marine predators. However, isotopic values may also be affected by an individual’s nutritional status and associated physiological processes. Here, we use C and N stable isotopes in blood and feathers of blue-footed booby chicks at the Galápagos Islands to examine how isotopic values are related to body condition and growth rate, and to assess the consistency in the isotope ratios of individuals during growth. Size dimorphism in blue-footed boobies provided an additional opportunity to examine how isotope ratios differ between sexes in relation to body size and growth rate. There was no significant difference between sexes but both C and N stable isotopes were significantly negatively related to the body condition of chicks. These data were consistent with individual variation in physiological processes affecting fractionation, although we cannot rule out the possibility that they were also influenced to some extent by population-level variation in the stable isotope ratios of prey fed to chicks, for instance related to prey size, depth or lipid content. Our results highlight the need for methods that take proper account of confounding physiological factors in isotopic studies of foraging ecology and diet.     

Nitrogen deposition increases the acquisition of phosphorus and potassium by heather Calluna vulgaris

Increased plant productivity due to nitrogen pollution increases the strength of the global carbon sink, but is implicated in plant diversity loss. However, modelling and experimental studies have suggested that these effects are constrained by availability of other nutrients. In a survey of element concentrations in Calluna vulgaris across an N deposition gradient in the UK, shoot concentrations of N and more surprisingly phosphorus and potassium were positively correlated with N deposition; tissue N/P ratio even decreased with N deposition. Elevated P and K concentrations possibly resulted from improved acquisition due to additional enzyme production or mycorrhizal activity. Heather occurs on organic soils where nutrient limitations are likely due to availability constraints rather than small stocks. However, if this effect extends to other plant and soil types, effects of N deposition on C sinks and plant competition may not be as constrained by availability of other nutrients as previously proposed.     

Mobilisation of sediment-associated metals from historical Pb working sites on the River Sheaf, Sheffield, UK

Spatial and temporal patterns of metal mobilisation from former water-powered, Pb working sites in a suburban area of Sheffield (UK) were investigated. Twelve time-integrated mass flux samplers were strategically deployed over two contrasting campaign periods (summer and winter). Suspended sediment samples were characterised magnetically and subjected to metal analysis. Metal levels in the upper River Sheaf showed a marked spatial and temporal variability. Pb concentrations in particular were relatively high (maximum 2132 mg kg(-1)). Their distribution tended to reflect the historical contamination of the valley by 17th to 19th century industry, especially during summer high discharge conditions. The mean suspended sediment Pb concentration (803 mg kg(-1)) exceeds contamination guidelines. It is unclear whether ground remediation of one of the seven floodplain sites in the catchment has been successful. The river is still affected by the legacy of at least two other Pb working sites.     

Countering resistance to protected‐area extension

The establishment of protected areas is a critical strategy for conserving biodiversity. Key policy directives like the Aichi targets seek to expand protected areas to 17% of Earth's land surface, with calls by some conservation biologists for much more. However, in places such as the United States, Germany, and Australia, attempts to increase protected areas are meeting strong resistance from communities, industry groups, and governments. We examined case studies of such resistance in Victoria, Australia, Bavaria, Germany, and Florida, United States. We considered 4 ways to tackle this problem. First, broaden the case for protected areas beyond nature conservation to include economic, human health, and other benefits, and translate these into a persuasive business case for protected areas. Second, better communicate the conservation values of protected areas. This should include highlighting how many species, communities, and ecosystems have been conserved by protected areas and the counterfactual (i.e., what would have been lost without protected area establishment). Third, consider zoning of activities to ensure the maintenance of effective management. Finally, remind citizens to think about conservation when they vote, including holding politicians accountable for their environmental promises. Without tackling resistance to expanding the protected estate, it will be impossible to reach conservation targets, and this will undermine attempts to stem the global extinction crisis.     

Understanding implications of consumer behavior for wildlife farming and sustainable wildlife trade

Unsustainable wildlife trade affects biodiversity and the livelihoods of communities dependent upon those resources. Wildlife farming has been proposed to promote sustainable trade, but characterizing markets and understanding consumer behavior remain neglected but essential steps in the design and evaluation of such operations. We used sea turtle trade in the Cayman Islands, where turtles have been farm raised for human consumption for almost 50 years, as a case study to explore consumer preferences toward wild‐sourced (illegal) and farmed (legal) products and potential conservation implications. Combining methods innovatively (including indirect questioning and choice experiments), we conducted a nationwide trade assessment through in‐person interviews from September to December 2014. Households were randomly selected using disproportionate stratified sampling, and responses were weighted based on district population size. We approached 597 individuals, of which 37 (6.2%) refused to participate. Although 30% of households had consumed turtle in the previous 12 months, the purchase and consumption of wild products was rare (e.g., 64–742 resident households consumed wild turtle meat [i.e., 0.3–3.5% of households] but represented a large threat to wild turtles in the area due to their reduced populations). Differences among groups of consumers were marked, as identified through choice experiments, and price and source of product played important roles in their decisions. Despite the long‐term practice of farming turtles, 13.5% of consumers showed a strong preference for wild products, which demonstrates the limitations of wildlife farming as a single tool for sustainable wildlife trade. By using a combination of indirect questioning, choice experiments, and sales data to investigate demand for wildlife products, we obtained insights about consumer behavior that can be used to develop conservation‐demand‐focused initiatives. Lack of data from long‐term social–ecological assessments hinders the evaluation of and learning from wildlife farming. This information is key to understanding under which conditions different interventions (e.g., bans, wildlife farming, social marketing) are likely to succeed.     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.     

Historical trends of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) recorded in sediments across the Tibetan Plateau

Sediment cores from four lakes across the Tibetan Plateau were used as natural archives to study the time trends of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The total concentrations of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (ΣDDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (ΣHCH) were in the range of 0.04–1.61 and 0.08–1.88 ng/g based on dry weight (dw), while the input fluxes were in the range of 0.3–236 and 0.7–295 pg/cm²/y in the core sediments, respectively. The input fluxes of ΣDDT and ΣHCH generally peaked in sediment layers corresponding to the 1970s–1990s and peaked in top sediment layers. The ratio of α/γ-HCH decreased in the top layer sediments, implying that the contribution of lindane (pure γ-HCH) has been increasing in recent years. In addition, the ratio of o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT increased significantly over the last 15–20 years, suggesting that dicofol (characterized by high ratio of o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT about 7.0) has recently become a relatively more important source of DDT compared to technical DDT itself. The time trends of OCPs recorded in lake sediments examined the impact on such remote alpine regions by human activities.     

Serengeti wildebeest migratory patterns modeled from rainfall and new vegetation growth

We used evolutionary programming to model innate migratory pathways of wildebeest in the Serengeti Mara Ecosystem, Tanzania and Kenya. Wildebeest annually move from the southern short-grass plains of the Serengeti to the northern woodlands of the Mara. We used satellite images to create 12 average monthly and 180 10-day surfaces from 1998 to 2003 of percentage rainfall and new vegetation. The surfaces were combined in five additive and three multiplicative models, with the weightings on rainfall and new vegetation from 0% to 100%. Modeled wildebeest were first assigned random migration pathways. In simulated generations, animals best able to access rainfall and vegetation were retained, and they produced offspring with similar migratory pathways. Modeling proceeded until the best pathway was stable. In a learning phase, modeling continued with the ten-day images in the objective function. The additive model, influenced 25% by rainfall and 75% by vegetation growth, yielded the best agreement, with a multi-resolution comparison to observed densities yielding 76.8% of blocks in agreement (kappa = 0.32). Agreement was best for dry season and early wet season (kappa = 0.22-0.57), and poorest for the late wet season (0.04). The model suggests that new forage growth is a dominant correlate of wildebeest migration.