A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.     

Pesticide and agro-ecological transition: assessing the environmental and human impacts of pesticides and limiting their use

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

Thermal dependency of burrowing in three species within the bivalve genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Laternula</Emphasis>: a latitudinal comparison

The upper thermal limits for burrowing and survival were compared with micro-habitat temperature for anomalodesmatan clams: Laternula elliptica (Antarctica, 67°S); Laternula recta, (temperate Australia, 38°S) and Laternula truncata (tropical Singapore, 1°N). Lethal limits (LT₅₀) were higher than burrowing limits (BT₅₀) in L. elliptica (7.5–9.0 and 2.2°C) and L. recta (winter, 32.8–36.8 and 31.1–32.8°C) but the same range for L. truncata (33.0–35.0 and 33.4–34.9°C). L. elliptica and L. truncata had a BT₅₀ 0.4 and 2.4–3.9°C, respectively, above their maximum experienced temperature. L. recta, which experience solar heating during midday low tides, had a BT₅₀ 0.7–2.4°C below and a range for LT₅₀ that spanned their predicted environmental maximum (33.5°C). L. recta showed no seasonal difference in LT₅₀ or BT₅₀. Our single genus comparisons contrast with macrophysiological studies showing that temperate species cope better with elevated temperatures. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in collecting and processing municipal solid waste: A shared input DEA-model

This paper proposed an adjusted "shared-input" version of the popular efficiency measurement technique Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that enables evaluating municipality waste collection and processing performances in settings in which one input (waste costs) is shared among treatment efforts of multiple municipal solid waste fractions. The main advantage of this version of DEA is that it not only provides an estimate of the municipalities overall cost efficiency but also estimates of the municipalities' cost efficiency in the treatment of the different fractions of municipal solid waste (MSW). To illustrate the practical usefulness of the shared input DEA-model, we apply the model to data on 293 municipalities in Flanders, Belgium, for the year 2008.     

Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Evaluation of leaching and extraction procedures for soil and waste

Laboratory leaching tests may be used for source term determination as a basis for risk assessment for soil-groundwater pathways on contaminated sites. In order to evaluate different leaching procedures, batch extraction tests and percolation tests were performed using three reference materials produced from contaminated soil, demolition waste and municipal solid waste incinerator bottom ash. Emphasis was placed on the investigation of the leachability of the heavy metals copper and chromium, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and the anions chloride and sulfate. Significant discrepancies between column experiments and batch/extraction tests were found for the release of PAHs and to a lesser extent for the heavy metals Cu and Cr. Additionally interlaboratory comparisons were conducted based on different leaching tests with the reference materials and evaluated using the criteria of comparability and reproducibility. The best reproducibility was achieved for all investigated substances in column tests. The reproducibility of batch tests was acceptable except for PAHs. The results from the experimental work will help establish standardized and feasible laboratory procedures as fundamental for substance specific risk assessment of contaminated sites.     

Extractability of elements in sugar maple xylem along a gradient of soil acidity

Dendrochemistry has been used for the historical dating of pollution. Its reliability is questionable due primarily to the radial mobility of elements in sapwood. In the present study, the extractability of seven elements was characterized to assess their suitability for the monitoring of environmental conditions. Nine mature sugar maple trees (Acer saccharum Marsh.), a wide-ranging species in eastern North America that has suffered decline in past decades, were sampled in three Quebec watersheds along a soil acidity gradient. Five-year groups of annual tree rings were treated by sequential chemical extractions using extractants of varying strength (deionized H2O, 0.05 M HCl, and concentrated HNO(3)) to selectively solubilize the elements into three fractions (water-soluble, acid-soluble, and residual). Monovalent K; divalent Ba, Ca, Cd, Mg, Mn; and trivalent Al cations were found mostly in the water-soluble, acid-soluble, and residual fractions, respectively. Forms more likely to be mobile within the tree (water-soluble and acid-soluble) do not seem to be suitable for temporal monitoring because of potential lateral redistribution in sapwood rings. However, certain elements (Cd, Mn) were responsive to current soil acidity and could be used in spatial variation monitoring. Extractability of Al varied according to soil acidity; at less acidic sites, up to 90% of Al was contained in the residual form, whereas on very acidic soils, as much as 45% was found in the water-soluble and acid-soluble fractions. Sequential extractions can be useful for determining specific forms of metals as key indicators of soil acidification.     

Types of Ectomycorrhiza as Pollution Stress Indicators: Case Studies in Slovenia

Mycorrhiza is the main spatial and temporal linkage between different constituents in a forest ecosystem. The functional compatibility and stress tolerance of ectomycorrhizal types is species specific, and therefore the information on the ectomycorrhizal community structure can add to the understanding of processes in forest ecosystems and can also be applied as tools for bioindication of pollution stress in forest soils. We have studied the effects of pollution (N and S) on trees and forest soils by: (1) quantification of ECM types diversity as in situ indicators in forest stands, (2) determination and quantification of pollution-sensitive or -insensitive ECM types as passive monitors, (3) root growth and development of ECM on nonmycorrhizal spruce seedlings, planted at the studied sites (active monitors), and (4) ECM infection (a bioassay based on mycorrhizal inoculum potential) of seedlings in an experimental set-up as ex situ testers. ECM species richness for Norway spruce trees (Picea abies) showed higher values in unpolluted sites than in polluted ones, while the differences were not significant for European beech trees (Fagus sylvatica). As pollution-sensitive or -insensitive ECM species in spruce forests, we suggest Hydnum rufescens (sensitive) and Paxillus involutus (unsensitive). Mycorrhizal potential in Norway spruce seedlings as a bioassay for soil N and S pollution was effective, and is suggested as an additional, standardized and widely comparable system in bioindication of soil pollution.     

Environmental degradation by mud in tropical estuaries

In wet tropical countries, the intense rainfall and the lack of effective restrictions on human activities in the river catchment leads to increased rates of soil erosion. This has increased the sediment loads many times over from the natural level. As a result, estuarine and coastal waters are becoming increasingly muddy with associated losses for society in terms of increased flooding and a degradation of the environment, the fisheries and the economic use of these waters. It is suggested that science-based models be used to predict the fate of mud in estuaries and coastal waters when planning development in river catchments, particularly in wet tropical countries. This would help integrate land and water management. Modelling technology is demonstrated by a combination of field and model studies in four turbid tropical estuaries, namely the Fly River in Papua New Guinea, the Mekong River in Vietnam, the Cimanuk River in Indonesia, and Hinchinbrook Channel in Australia. The final model is adapted to local conditions and extensively uses data assimilation especially for open boundary conditions. There can be a feedback between the hydrodynamics and the mud dynamics when the system silts; in wet tropical countries this can occur rapidly, sometimes in only 30 years. Electronic Publication