Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin?

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.     

Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community: comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data

Background

Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level.

Results

We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data.

Conclusion

The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.

     

Ultrastructure of pedal muscle as a function of temperature in nacellid limpets

Temperature and mitochondrial plasticity are well studied in fishes, but little is known about this relationship in invertebrates. The effects of habitat temperature on mitochondrial ultrastructure were examined in three con-familial limpets from the Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), and Singapore (Cellana radiata). The effects of seasonal changes in temperature were also examined in winter and summer C. ornata. Stereological methods showed that limpet pedal myocytes were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller in diameter (≈3.5 μm) than in vertebrates, and that the diameter did not vary as a function of temperature. Mitochondrial volume density (Vv_(mt,f)) was approximately 2–4 times higher in N. concinna (0.024) than in the other species (0.01 and 0.006), which were not significantly different from each other. Mitochondrial cristae surface density (Sv_(im,mt)) was significantly lower in summer C. ornata (24.1 ± 0.50 μm² μm⁻³) than both winter C. ornata (32.3 ± 0.95 μm² μm⁻³) and N. concinna (34.3 ± 4.43 μm² μm⁻³). The surface area of mitochondrial cristae per unit fibre volume was significantly higher in N. concinna, due largely to the greater mitochondrial volume density. These results and previous studies indicate that mitochondrial proliferation in the cold is a common, but not universal response by different species from different thermal habitats. Seasonal temperature decreases on the other hand, leading preferentially to an increase in cristae surface density. Stereological measures also showed that energetic reserves, i.e. lipid droplets and glycogen in the pedal muscle changed greatly with season and species. This was most likely related to gametogenesis and spawning.     

Conservation decision-making in large state spaces

When looking for the best course of management decisions to efficiently conserve metapopulation systems, a classic approach in the ecology literature is to model the optimisation problem as a Markov decision process and find an optimal control policy using exact stochastic dynamic programming techniques. Stochastic dynamic programming is an iterative procedure that seeks to optimise a value function at each timestep by evaluating the benefits of each of the actions in each state of the system defined in the Markov decision process.Although stochastic dynamic programming methods provide an optimal solution to conservation management questions in a stochastic world, their applicability in metapopulation problems has always been limited by the so-called curse of dimensionality. The curse of dimensionality is the problem that adding new state variables inevitably results in much larger (often exponential) increases in the size of the state space, which can make solving superficially small problems impossible. The high computational requirements of stochastic dynamic programming methods mean that only simple metapopulation management problems can be analysed. In this paper we overcome the complexity burden of exact stochastic dynamic programming methods and present the benefits of an on-line sparse sampling algorithm proposed by Kearns, Mansour and Ng (2002). The algorithm is particularly attractive for problems with large state spaces as the running time is independent of the size of the state space of the problem. This appealing improvement is achieved at a cost: the solutions found are no longer guaranteed to be optimal.We apply the algorithm of Kearns et al. (2002) to a hypothetical fish metapopulation problem where the management objective is to maximise the number of occupied patches over the management time horizon. Our model has multiple management options to combat the threats of water abstraction and waterhole sedimentation. We compare the performance of the optimal solution to the results of the on-line sparse sampling algorithm for a simple 3-waterhole case. We find that three look-ahead steps minimises the error between the optimal solution and the approximation algorithm. This paper introduces a new algorithm to conservation management that provides a way to avoid the effects of the curse of dimensionality. The work has the potential to allow us to approximate solutions to much more complex metapopulation management problems in the future.     

Analytical solution for katabatic flow induced by an isolated cold strip

An analytical model for katabatic flow induced by cold strip of finite width in the cross-slope direction but of infinite extent in the downslope direction is presented. The fluid is assumed to have a constant (eddy) viscosity, and the Coriolis force is neglected. A numerical simulation has been used to verify the model, which is shown to revert to the classical Prandtl model if the strip width goes to infinity. The effects of the strip width and slope angle on the katabatic flow are studied. The buoyancy and downslope velocity reach maximum values at the centre of the strip, and spread outwards in the cross-slope direction. The downslope wind maximum weakens for narrow strips and shallow slopes. In contrast to the Prandtl solution, which shows a counter flow above the wind maximum, our model predicts the counter flow to occur outside the strip. The cross-slope variation in the surface forcing induces cross-slope and slope-normal velocities, which are manifested in vortices at the strip edges. Below the wind maximum, the fluid above the cooling surface descends and moves toward the strip edge where it is detrained from the strip region. Replenishment of fluid into the strip region takes place above the wind maximum.     

Ecotourism options in coastal protected area management: a case study of North Head Quarantine Station, Australia

The challenges faced by coastal protected areas in both promoting highly attractive sites and preserving the natural attributes of these sites have been given a new dimension with the opportunities presented by ecotourism. Realising the market potential of a protected area and, at the same time, conserving the unique features of an area is a difficult task. This paper explores the possibilities that backpacker tourism may offer the Quarantine Station in Sydney Harbour National Park, in Australia. The Quarantine Station is a significant cultural heritage site that is located in a sensitive coastal national park within Sydney's metropolitan area.     

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km² of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations’ resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.     

Validation of I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of ¹³¹I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of ¹³⁷Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of ¹³¹I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of ¹³¹I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions.A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.     

Analytical solution for Joule–Thomson cooling during CO2 geo-sequestration in depleted oil and gas reservoirs

Mathematical tools are needed to screen out sites where Joule–Thomson cooling is a prohibitive factor for CO₂ geo-sequestration and to design approaches to mitigate the effect. In this paper, a simple analytical solution is developed by invoking steady-state flow and constant thermophysical properties. The analytical solution allows fast evaluation of spatiotemporal temperature fields, resulting from constant-rate CO₂ injection. The applicability of the analytical solution is demonstrated by comparison with non-isothermal simulation results from the reservoir simulator TOUGH2. Analysis confirms that for an injection rate of 3 kg s^?1 (0.1 MT yr^?1) into moderately warm (>40 °C) and permeable formations (>10^?14 m² (10 mD)), JTC is unlikely to be a problem for initial reservoir pressures as low as 2 MPa (290 psi).     

One century sedimentary records of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, mercury and trace elements in the Qinghai Lake, Tibetan Plateau

Sediments from a remote lake of northeastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and trace metals. USEPA priority PAHs, ranged from 11 in 1860 to 279 ng g⁻¹ in 2002, while, the deposition fluxes were in the range of 0.2-11.4 ng cm⁻² yr⁻¹. Similarly, from 1860 to 2002, an increased trend of Hg flux was observed (0.5-3.2 ng cm⁻² yr⁻¹). Remarkable increase of PAHs and Hg concentration began from 1970, nearly the same period of the “Reform and Open” Policy had been embarked (1978) in China. Good correlations were found between concentrations of Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Hg, and PAHs, which suggested the sources of these chemicals in the sediment is analogous, likely from anthroprogenic sources. Based on isomer ratios, PAHs in core were dominantly from the incomplete combustion of coal. Owing to the proximity to dust source area (Qaidam Basin) and the close association between PAHs, Hg, Pb, and particle matters, atmospheric dust-transport and deposition might be the main pathways that pollutants enter into Qinghai Lake.