Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites. We then applied our method to 3 critically endangered vulture species in Cambodia to demonstrate the real-world applicability of the model and to provide the first abundance estimates for these species in Cambodia. Our new approach works best when existing methods are expected to perform poorly (i.e., few sites and large variation in abundance among sites) and if individuals may move among sites between sampling occasions. The approach performed better when there were >8 sampling occasions and net probability of detection was high (>0.5). We believe our approach will be useful in particular for simultaneous surveys at aggregation sites, such as roosts. The method complements existing approaches for estimating abundance of unmarked individuals and is the first method designed specifically for simultaneous counts.     

PFAS Experts Symposium: Statements on regulatory policy,chemistry and analytics,toxicology, transport/fate,and remediation for per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination issues

Sixty leading members of the scientific, engineering, regulatory, and legal communities assembled for the PFAS Experts Symposium in Arlington, Virginia on May 20 and 21, 2019 to discuss issues related to per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) based on the quickly evolving developments of PFAS regulations, chemistry and analytics, transport and fate concepts, toxicology, and remediation technologies.  The Symposium created a venue for experts with various specialized skills to provide opinions and trade perspectives on existing and new approaches to PFAS assessment and remediation in light of lessons learned managing other contaminants encountered over the past four decades. The following summarizes several consensus points developed as an outcome of the Symposium:

• Regulatory and policy issues: The response by many states and the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to media exposure and public pressure related to PFAS contamination is to relatively quickly initiate programs to regulate PFAS sites. This includes the USEPA establishing relatively low lifetime health advisory levels for PFAS in drinking water and even more stringent guidance and standards in several states. In addition, if PFAS are designated as hazardous substances at the federal level, as proposed by several Congressional bills, there could be wide‐reaching effects including listing of new Superfund sites solely for PFAS, application of stringent state standards, additional characterization and remediation at existing sites, reopening of closed sites, and cost renegotiation among PRPs.
• Chemistry and analytics: PFAS analysis is confounded by the lack of regulatory‐approved methods for most PFAS in water and all PFAS in solid media and air, interference with current water‐based analytical methods if samples contain high levels of suspended solids, and sample collection and analytical interference due to the presence of PFAS in common consumer products, sampling equipment, and laboratory materials.
• Toxicology and risk: Uncertainties remain related to human health and ecological effects for most PFAS; however, regulatory standards and guidance are being established incorporating safety factors that result in part per trillion (ppt) cleanup objectives. Given the thousands of PFAS that may be present in the environment, a more appropriate paradigm may be to develop toxicity criteria for groups of PFAS rather than individual PFAS.
• Transport and fate: The recalcitrance of many perfluoroalkyl compounds and the capability of some fluorotelomers to transform into perfluoroalkyl compounds complicate conceptual site models at many PFAS sites, particularly those involving complex mixtures, such as firefighting foams. Research is warranted to better understand the physicochemical properties and corresponding transport and fate of most PFAS, of branched and linear isomers of the same compounds, and of the interactions of PFAS with other co‐contaminants such as nonaqueous phase liquids. Many PFAS exhibit complex transport mechanisms, particularly at the air/water interface, and it is uncertain whether traditional transport principles apply to the ppt levels important to PFAS projects. Existing analytical methods are sufficient when combined with the many advances in site characterization techniques to move rapidly forward at selected sites to develop and test process‐based conceptual site models.
• Existing remediation technologies and research: Current technologies largely focus on separation (sorption, ion exchange, or sequestration). Due to diversity in PFAS properties, effective treatment will likely require treatment trains. Monitored natural attenuation will not likely involve destructive reactions, but be driven by processes such as matrix diffusion, sorption, dispersion, and dilution.

The consensus message from the Symposium participants is that PFAS present far more complex challenges to the environmental community than prior contaminants. This is because, in contrast to chlorinated solvents, PFAS are severely complicated by their mobility, persistence, toxicological uncertainties, and technical obstacles to remediation—all under the backdrop of stringent regulatory and policy developments that vary by state and will be further driven by USEPA. Concern was expressed about the time, expense, and complexity required to remediate PFAS sites and whether the challenges of PFAS warrant alternative approaches to site cleanups, including the notion that adaptive management and technical impracticability waivers may be warranted at sites with expansive PFAS plumes. A paradigm shift towards receptor protection rather than broad scale groundwater/aquifer remediation may be appropriate.     

Stabilising cooperation through pragmatic tolerance: the case of the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA) tuna fishery

Purse seine fishing of skipjack tuna in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) raises concern over increasing impacts on yellowfin and bigeye tuna by-catch. To address sustainability concerns, the Parties to the Nauru Agreement (PNA) adopted the vessel day scheme (VDS) for the management of purse seine fishing in the WCPO. The VDS has the potential to improve economic benefits for PNA members and to contribute to sustainability of the tuna stocks, and since 2012, has become an important mechanism to regulate fishing access rights in PNA waters. Despite this, monitoring and enforcement remains weak leading to violations of the agreement. Using a game theoretic framework, this paper examines the effectiveness of the VDS and its implications for fisheries regionalism. We examine the payoffs of member countries of the Nauru Agreement under full compliance and payoffs under the currently observed partial compliance. Our findings indicate that member states’ partial compliance with VDS rules plays a role in stabilising the agreement. Requiring full compliance, on the other hand, may encompass strong incentives for PNA members to deviate from the VDS since third parties offer attractive benefits in return for privileged access to fishing grounds. However, pragmatic tolerance of deviations from full VDS compliance seems to play a facilitative role in promoting cooperation and fisheries regionalism.

     

Local voices on renewable energy projects: the performative role of the regulatory process for major offshore infrastructure in England and Wales

There is currently a considerable emphasis on delivering major renewable energy infrastructure projects. Such projects will have impacts on local communities; some impacts may be perceived as positive but others will be viewed more negatively. Any just regulatory process for considering and permitting such infrastructure will need to heed the concerns that local communities voice. But what counts as a local voice? In this paper it is argued that the regulatory process plays a performative role, constructing what counts as a local voice. Furthermore, this has consequences for how regulatory deliberations proceed and the outcomes of regulatory processes. The empirical basis for this argument is a study of major offshore renewable energy infrastructure in England and Wales and the way that it is regulated through a specific regime – the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs) regime established by the Planning Act 2008. Through a detailed study of eight projects that have passed through the regime, the analysis unfolds the way that the voices of local residents, local businesses, local NGOs and local authorities are constructed in the key boundary object of the Examining Authority’s report; it then draws out the implications for the mitigation measures that are negotiated. The research suggests that what counts as a local voice is constrained by how the performative role of the NSIPs regulatory regime differentiates between interests and suggests that new ways of giving voice to local people are required.     

Fixism and conservation science

The field of biodiversity conservation has recently been criticized as relying on a fixist view of the living world in which existing species constitute at the same time targets of conservation efforts and static states of reference, which is in apparent disagreement with evolutionary dynamics. We reviewed the prominent role of species as conservation units and the common benchmark approach to conservation that aims to use past biodiversity as a reference to conserve current biodiversity. We found that the species approach is justified by the discrepancy between the time scales of macroevolution and human influence and that biodiversity benchmarks are based on reference processes rather than fixed reference states. Overall, we argue that the ethical and theoretical frameworks underlying conservation research are based on macroevolutionary processes, such as extinction dynamics. Current species, phylogenetic, community, and functional conservation approaches constitute short‐term responses to short‐term human effects on these reference processes, and these approaches are consistent with evolutionary principles.     

How unpredictable is the individual scanning process in socially foraging mammals?

In group-forming prey species, theory assumes that individuals within groups should scan independently of one another, with vigilance sequences being relatively unpredictable, making interscan durations highly variable. We attempted to detect any divergence from randomness in the scanning process in three mammalian prey species phylogenetically and geographically separated and exposed to different levels of predation: waterbuck, Kobus ellipsiprymnus defassa, under a high observed predation risk, eastern grey kangaroo, Macropus giganteus, still experiencing occasional predation and European roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, under a very low natural predation risk. Our results revealed that the focal interscan duration increased when the duration of the preceding interscan increased, whatever the studied species and the predation risk that its individuals experienced, and decreased with the preceding scan duration in two species under, respectively, occasional and low predation risks. The exponential distribution was the tested model that fitted the observed distributions of interscan durations least well. We discuss what can trigger non-randomness in scanning, through a non-homogenous Poisson process, at both intra-individual and inter-individual levels, particularly with regard to previous studies that have demonstrated synchronisation of vigilance in such mammals. Our results suggest the need to reconsider any assumption of randomness in scanning in the basic model predicting form and frequency of scanning behaviour by prey species.     

Mitochondrial plasticity in brachiopod (Liothyrella spp.) smooth adductor muscle as a result of season and latitude

Habitat temperature and mitochondrial volume density (Vv_(mt,mf)) are negatively correlated in fishes, while seasonal acclimatization may increase Vv_(mt,mf) or the surface density of the mitochondrial cristae (Sv_(im,mt)). The effect of temperature on invertebrate mitochondria is essentially unknown. A comparison of two articulate brachiopod species, Liothyrella uva collected from Rothera Station, Antarctica in summer 2007, and Liothyrella neozelanica collected from Fiordland, New Zealand in winter 2007 and summer 2008, revealed a higher Vv_(mt,mf) in the Antarctic brachiopod. The Sv_(im,mt) was, however, significantly lower, indicating the Antarctic brachiopods have more, less reactive mitochondria. L. uva, from the colder environment, had larger adductor muscles in both absolute and relative terms than the temperate L. neozelanica. Furthermore, a seasonal comparison (winter vs. summer) in L. neozelanica showed that the absolute and relative size of the adductor increased in winter, Vv_(mt,mf) was unchanged, and Sv_(im,mt) was significantly increased. Thus, seasonal acclimatization to the cold resulted in the same number of more reactive mitochondria. L. neozelanica was clearly able to adapt to seasonal changes using a different mechanism, i.e. primarily through regulation of cristae surface area as opposed to mitochondrial volume density. Furthermore, given the evolutionary age of these living fossils (i.e. approximately 550 million years), this suggests that mitochondrial plasticity has roots extending far back into evolutionary history.     

The distribution of,and relation among,mercury and methylmercury,organic carbon,carbonate, nitrogen and phosphorus,in periphyton of the South Florida ecosystem

Periphyton samples from Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, and Everglades National Park in south Florida were analyzed for concentrations of total mercury, methylmercury, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and inorganic carbon. Concentrations of total mercury in periphyton decrease slightly along a gradient from north‐to‐south. Both total mercury and methylmercury are positively correlated with organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in periphyton. In horizontal sections of periphyton mats, total mercury concentrations tend to be largest at the tops and bottoms of the mats. Methylmercury concentrations tend to be the largest near the bottom of mats. These localized elevated concentrations of methylmercury suggest that there are “hot spots”; of methylmercury in periphyton.     

Valuing non-market benefits derived from allotments in southeast England: A contingent valuation study

The English derive a wide range of values from allotments, but nearly 35% of allotments have disappeared in the last 20 years. The real value of allotments has probably been underestimated. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to give a monetary value to benefits derived from allotments by allotment holders and local residents. The study was conducted in southeast England (Wye and Ashford, Kent and Greater London). A postal survey with open-ended questions was filled in by 124 allotment holders and 74 residents. Respondents were asked to express their maximum willingness to pay for allotments (WTP) and the minimum willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for loss of allotments. The mean annual WTP for keeping allotments of allotment holders were £78.93, £35.64 and £79.43, and for local residents were £41.66, £46.14 and £283.57, in Wye, Ashford and London, respectively. The allotment holders' WTP was strategically more than WTA compensation and they were only willing to pay rent for using allotments, not for retaining them.     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.