Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Observations on the function of the glands of the foot of the pediveliger of Ostrea edulis during settlement

The use during settlement of secretions of the 9 different types of gland in the foot of the pediveliger of Ostrea edulis L. was examined experimentally. During settlement, there is a progressive decrease in the crawling speed of the larva and a strengthening of its bond with the substratum. Both changes are related to (a) a change from ciliary to muscular pedal locomotion; (b) the increasing acidity and viscosity of the mucoid secretions used; (c) the secretion of a byssus thread by the glands of the byssus duet; (d) changes in the form and composition of this byssus. At the termination of settlement, the entire contents of 2 types of gland are discharged. Their secretions give rise to the cement which permanently fixes the larva to the substratum. The 9 types of gland are utilised sequentially in a manner closely related to the 6 phases recognised in settlement behaviour.     

Translating the 10 golden rules of reforestation for coral reef restoration

Efforts are accelerating to protect and restore ecosystems globally. With trillions of dollars in ecosystem services at stake, no clear framework exists for developing or prioritizing approaches to restore coral reefs even as efforts and investment opportunities to do so grow worldwide. Restoration may buy time for climate change mitigation, but it lacks rigorous guidance to meet objectives of scalability and effectiveness. Lessons from restoration of terrestrial ecosystems can and should be rapidly adopted for coral reef restoration. We propose how the 10 golden rules of effective forest restoration can be translated to accelerate efforts to restore coral reefs based on established principles of resilience, management, and local stewardship. We summarize steps to undertake reef restoration as a management strategy in the context of the diverse ecosystem service values that coral reefs provide. Outlining a clear blueprint is timely as more stakeholders seek to undertake restoration as the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration begins.     

Potassium carbonate-based ternary transition temperature mixture (deep eutectic analogues) for CO2 absorption: Characterizations and DFT analysis

•Addition of hindered amine increased thermal stability and viscosity of TTTM. •Addition of hindered amine improved the CO₂ absorption performance of TTTM. •Good the CO₂ absorption of recycled solvents after two regenerations. •Important role of amine group in CO₂ absorption of TTTM confirmed by DFT analysis. Is it possible to improve CO₂ solubility in potassium carbonate (K₂CO₃)-based transition temperature mixtures (TTMs)? To assess this possibility, a ternary transition-temperature mixture (TTTM) was prepared by using a hindered amine, 2-amino-2-methyl-1,3-propanediol (AMPD). Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) was employed to detect the functional groups including hydroxyl, amine, carbonate ion, and aliphatic functional groups in the prepared solvents. From thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), it was found that the addition of AMPD to the binary mixture can increase the thermal stability of TTTM. The viscosity findings showed that TTTM has a higher viscosity than TTM while their difference was decreased by increasing temperature. In addition, Eyring’s absolute rate theory was used to compute the activation parameters (ΔG*, ΔH*, and ΔS*). The CO₂ solubility in liquids was measured at a temperature of 303.15 K and pressures up to 1.8 MPa. The results disclosed that the CO₂ solubility of TTTM was improved by the addition of AMPD. At the pressure of about 1.8 MPa, the CO₂ mole fractions of TTM and TTTM were 0.1697 and 0.2022, respectively. To confirm the experimental data, density functional theory (DFT) was employed. From the DFT analysis, it was found that the TTTM+ CO₂ system has higher interaction energy (|ΔE |) than the TTM+ CO₂ system indicating the higher CO₂ affinity of the former system. This study might help scientists to better understand and to improve CO₂ solubility in these types of solvents by choosing a suitable amine as HBD and finding the best combination of HBA and HBD.     

Trees as bioindicator of heavy metal pollution in three European cities

Concentrations of four heavy metals were determined in tree leaves and bark collected from polluted and non-polluted areas of three European cities (Salzburg, Belgrade and Thessaloniki) for a comparative study. Platanus orientalis L. and Pinus nigra Arn., widespread in urban northern and southern Europe, were tested for their suitability for air quality biomonitoring. Leaves and barks were collected uniformly of an initial quantity of about 30 g of each sample. Analysis was accomplished by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry after total digestion. Site-dependent variations were found with the highest concentration level measured in Belgrade, followed by Thessaloniki and Salzburg. A higher accumulation of heavy metals was found in bark compared to leaves. Pine tree bark, accumulating higher concentrations of trace metals compared to plane tree bark, shows a higher efficiency as bioindicator for urban pollution. Both indicator species are suitable for comparative studies on bioindication of urban air pollution.     

Kinetics of phenol and chlorophenol utilization by Acinetobacter species

Although microbial transformations via cometabolism have been widely observed, the few available kinetic models of cometabolism have not adequately addressed the case of inhibition from both the growth and nongrowth substrates. The present study investigated the degradation kinetics of self-inhibitory growth (phenol) and nongrowth (4-chlorophenol, 4-CP) substrates, present individually and in combination. Specifically, batch experiments were performed using an Acinetobacter isolate growing on phenol alone and with 4-CP present. In addition, batch experiments were also performed to evaluate the transformation of 4-CP by resting, phenol-induced Acinetobacter cultures. The Haldane kinetic model adequately predicted the biodegradation of phenol alone, although a slight discrepancy was noted in cases of higher initial phenol concentrations. Similarly, a Haldane model for substrate utilization was also able to describe the trends in 4-CP transformation by the resting cell cultures. The 4-CP transformation by the Acinetobacter species growing on phenol was modeled using a competitive kinetic model of cometabolism, which included growth and nongrowth substrate inhibition and cross-inhibition terms. Excellent agreement was obtained between the model predictions using experimentally estimated parameter values and the experimental data for the synchronous disappearance of phenol and 4-CP.     

Source and persistence of pesticides in a semi-confined chalk aquifer of southeast England

Pesticide contamination in groundwater is an increasing problem that poses a significant long-term threat to water quality. Following the detection of elevated concentrations of diuron in boreholes in a semi-confined chalk aquifer from southeast England, a sampling programme was undertaken. Between 2003 and 2004 diuron was observed in 90% of groundwaters analysed. In 60% of groundwater samples metabolites of diuron were more prevalent than the parent compound. Longer-term (1989-2005) monitoring shows that pollution of the aquifer by atrazine, simazine, and more recently diuron, shows a positive correlation with periods of high groundwater levels. Results from groundwater residence time indicators suggest that the highest diuron concentrations are associated with waters containing the greatest proportion of recent recharge. There is some evidence to indicate that diuron occurrence can be spatially related to areas of urban and industrial development and is probably correlated with amenity usage.     

Ammonia emission from grassland and livestock production systems in the UK

Emissions of ammonia were measured from livestock excreta and fertilisers applied to grass swards, from grazed paddocks, from decomposing grass herbage and from an animal house containing dairy cows. Emissions from urine, dung, slurry and fertilisers were determined using a system of wind tunnels with each tunnel covering an area of 1 m(2). Emissions from grazed swards were determined using a micrometeorological mass balance method. From the results of these measurements, together with other published information, an inventory for ammonia emissions has been calculated for grassland and livestock production systems over the UK as a whole. It is estimated that emissions from grassland and cattle and sheep production amount to about 230 kt NH(3)-N annually, while emissions from pig and poultry production amount to about 40 kt and 80 kt NH(3)-N, respectively.