Evaluating forest management practices using a GIS-based cellular automata modeling approach with multispectral imagery

The objective of this study was to develop an integrated geographic information system (GIS) cellular automata (CA) model for simulating insect-induced tree mortality patterns in order to evaluate the influence of different forest management activities to control insect outbreaks. High-resolution multispectral images were used to determine susceptibility of trees to attack, whereas the GIS-based CA model simulated the effectiveness of clear-cuts and thinning practices for reducing insect-induced tree mortality. The results indicate that thinning susceptible forests should be more effective than clear-cutting for reducing tree loss to insect outbreaks. This study demonstrates the benefits of an integrated approach for understanding and evaluating forest management activities and expresses the need for spatial analysis and modeling for improving forest management practices.     

Fate of ϵ-caprolactam in the aquatic environment

The rate and extent of ?-caprolactam degradation in aquatic systems are dependent on the nutrient availability, indigenous microbial population and activity, chemical concentration, and water temperature. The labeled chemical evolved ¹⁴CO₂ indicating ring cleavage with between 35 and 80% of the radioactivity evolved as ¹⁴CO₂ after 21 days in yeast extract-supplemented waters. The percent of caprolactam degraded was indirectly related to the chemical's concentration in the water, suggesting microbial inhibition at high caprolactam concentrations.     

Accelerating environmental cleanup at DOE sites: Monitored natural attenuation/enhanced attenuation—A basis for a new paradigm

The U.S. Department of Energy is conducting a project to accelerate remediation through the use of monitored natural attenuation and enhanced attenuation for chlorinated ethenes in soils and groundwater. Better monitoring practices, improved scientific understanding, and an advanced regulatory framework are being sought through a team effort that engages technology developers from academia, private industry, and government laboratories; site cleanup managers; stakeholders; and federal and state regulators. The team works collaboratively toward the common goals of reducing risk, accelerating cleanup, reducing cost, and minimizing environmental disruption. Cutting‐edge scientific advances are being combined with experience and sound environmental engineering in a broadly integrated and comprehensive approach that exemplifies socalled “third‐generation R&D.” The project is potentially a model for other cleanup activities. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

SIMULATED IMPACTS OF EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON UNITED STATES WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena alter global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water supply. ENSO events impact regions and their natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997 and 1998, a strong El Nino brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding, and record snowfall to the west coast of the United States. Research on ENSO events has improved long range climate predictions, affording the potential to reduce the damage and economic cost of these weather patterns. Here, using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS), we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states (Neutral, El Niño, La Niña, and strong El Niño) on water resources in the conterminous United States. The simulations show that La Niña conditions increase water yield across much of the country. We find that water yield increases during El Niño years across the south while declining in much of the rest of the country. However, under strong El Niño conditions, regional water yields are much higher than Neutral, especially along the West Coast. Strong El Niño is not simply an amplification of El Niño; it leads to strikingly different patterns of water resource response.     

IMPROVING AQUATIC HABITAT CONDITIONS OVER TIME WHILE PRODUCING WOOD PRODUCTS: AN EXAMINATION OF OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: A land management activity scheduling model that can perform a multi-period, simultaneous evaluation of aquatic habitat quality and commodity production goals was used to identify alternatives which would allow the improvement of aquatic habitat conditions over time, while producing wood products. The scheduling model has the ability to use stream sediment index levels, stream temperature index levels, and equivalent clearcut acres (ECA) levels as primary goals. A secondary goal imbedded in the model is the achievement of an even-flow of timber harvest volume, and a tertiary goal is the achievement of maximum efficiency (maximum net present value). The scheduling model utilizes a heuristic programming technique (Tabu search) to guide the selection of timber harvests and road standards. A 14,643 acre case study watershed in eastern Oregon is used to illustrate several policy scenarios. Activities considered include: clearcutting and partial cutting; cable, skyline, ground-based, and helicopter logging; road obliteration; requiring lower truck tire pressures on forest roads; and tree planting in riparian areas. The scheduling model produced land management plans which were spatially and temporally feasible over ten ten-year time periods. Stream temperature was shown to be dramatically reduced if tree planting is performed in all riparian areas, regardless of whether harvesting activities occurred, and including meadows and forested areas where shade density is low. Timber harvest volume levels decreased 31 to 43 percent, and net present value levels decreased 36 to 46 percent, from an unconstrained case, when any of the following occurred: ECA was constrained to 15 percent, sediment index levels were required to decrease by 1 percent per decade, or temperature levels were constrained to “no harvest” levels. The use of a heuristic programming technique is a departure from traditional techniques that are commonly used in management plan development. Yet the heuristic technique allows the inclusion of complex management goals, many of which may be prohibited when using more traditional mathematical programming techniques. In addition, decision variables which require spatial information, requiring them to take on integer or non-linear representations, can be accounted for without realizing the limitations of the traditional techniques.     

Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future     

Age,size, dominance and reproduction among male kudus: mating enhancement by attrition of rivals

Summary Size dimorphism with males larger than females has been related to the benefits for males of enhanced dominance and hence reproductive success. However, mating gains must outweigh the fitness costs of deferred reproduction and the mortality associated with further growth. The relationships between male age, size and reproduction were assessed for greater kudus (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. Individually identifiable animals were monitored over 10 years, with detailed observations made during six breeding seasons. In the non-breeding season males formed loose all-male groups. Horn grappling and low intensity agonistic interactions fostered dominance rankings. Dominance was age-graded, until males reached full weight at 6 years of age. Males aged 6 and 7 years monopolized courtship and mating, but 5-year-old males secured about 10% of mating opportunities. Few males survived beyond 7 years. Male mortality rate rose steeply with age, so that the functional sex ratio of fertile females per mature male was about 14:1. During the breeding season many female groups remained unattended by a mature male. Reproductive sorting among males occurred largely through variation in survival to full size and maturity. Increased size enhances fighting success and hence dominance. Further growth ceases when the functional sex ratio exceeds the number of mating opportunities that males can effectively achieve during a breeding season. Predation amplifies the mortality cost of continued growth. In the absence of large predators, male-male interactions may be atypically exaggerated.     

Avian Species Richness in Different-Aged Stands of Riparian Forest Along the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.     

Experience with 500 prenatal diagnoses of sickle cell diseases: The effect of gestational age on affected pregnancy outcome

Prenatal diagnosis of sickle cell diseases is obtained rapidly and precisely by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with Ddel restriction analysis and dot-blotting with alllele-specific oligonucleotides (ASO). Prenatal diagnosis of HgbSS and HgbSC was performed in 500 pregnancies, 196 by Southern blot and 304 by PCR. PCR drastically shortened the interval from sampling to reporting, allowing acceptance even of samples with unknown paternal phenotype, and resulted in an overall four-fold increase in diagnoses. In 108 pregnancies, the diagnosis was an affected fetus; 25 were HgbSC: 3 (12 per cent) were terminated; 83 were HgbSS: four ended in miscarriage; 40/79 (51 per cent) were terminated. The gestational age at the time of report to the mother appeared to be a major outcome determinant when the fetal diagnosis was HgbSS. The change-point in the maternal decision was found at 20 weeks of gestation. Before the 20th week, most mothers (64 per cent) chose termination; thereafter, the majority (72 per cent) chose continuation. The odds ratio of termination in earlier relative to later reporting was 4·7. In order to offer a choice to the mothers at risk of delivering a fetus affected by sickle cell disease, the diagnosis should be reported before the 20th week of gestation.