Online update of model state and parameters of a Monte Carlo atmospheric dispersion model by using ensemble Kalman filter

For an atmospheric dispersion model designed for the assessment of nuclear accident consequences, some uncertain model parameters, such as source term and weather conditions, may influence the reliability of model predictions. In this respect, good estimations of both model state and uncertain parameters are required. In this paper, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based method for simultaneous state and parameter estimation, using off-site radiation monitoring data, is presented. This method is based on a stochastic state space model, which resembles the parameter errors with stochastic quantities. Three imperfect parameters, including the source release rate, wind direction and turbulence intensity were perturbed simultaneously, and multiple parameter estimation were performed. Having been tested against both simulated and real radiation monitoring data, the method was found to be able to realistically reconstruct the real scene of dispersion, as well as the uncertain parameters. The estimated parameters given by EnKF nicely converge to the true values, and the method also tracks the temporal variation of those parameters.     

Predicting Root Density in Streambanks1

Abstract: Roots of riparian vegetation increase streambank erosion resistance and structural stability; therefore, knowledge of root density and distribution in streambanks is useful for stream management and restoration. The objective of this study was to compare streambank root distributions for herbaceous and woody vegetation and to develop empirical models to predict root density. Root length density, root volume ratio, soil physical and chemical properties, and above‐ground vegetation densities were measured at 25 sites on six streams in southwestern Virginia. The Mann‐Whitney test was used to determine differences in root density along stream segments dominated by either woody or herbaceous vegetation. Multiple linear regression was used to develop relationships between root density and site characteristics. Study results showed that roots were evenly distributed across the bank face with the majority of roots having diameters less than 2 mm. Soil bulk density and above‐ground vegetation were key factors influencing root density. While significant relationships were developed to predict root density, the predictive capabilities of the equations was low. Because of the highly variable nature of soil and vegetation properties, it is recommended at this time that soil erodibility and root density be measured in the field for design and modeling purposes, rather than estimated based on empirical relationships.     

Partnerships and governance at the environment–health nexus in Ontario: lessons from five case examples

The move towards partnerships and collaborative governance models has been advocated in global health discussions for many years now. A case example methodology was applied to this study. It was composed of a document review and semi-structured interviews with key informants from five environment and public health partnerships in the province of Ontario, Canada. These case examples highlight the merits and the challenges of diverse partnerships, and the importance of governance and leadership models, scaling up (and out) impact, and cross-cultural communications to these arrangements. Further work is required to articulate situations in which public health partnerships can be strengthened.     

Water quality guidelines for chemicals: learning lessons to deliver meaningful environmental metrics

Many jurisdictions around the globe have well-developed regulatory frameworks for the derivation and implementation of water quality guidelines (WQGs) or their equivalent (e.g. environmental quality standards, criteria, objectives or limits). However, a great many more still do not have such frameworks and are looking to introduce practical methods to manage chemical exposures in aquatic ecosystems. There is a potential opportunity for learning and sharing of data and information between experts from different jurisdictions in order to deliver efficient and effective methods to manage potential aquatic risks, including the considerable reduction in the need for aquatic toxicity testing and the rapid identification of common challenges. This paper reports the outputs of an international workshop with representatives from 14 countries held in Hong Kong in December 2011. The aim of the workshop and this paper was to identify ‘good practice’ in the development of WQGs to deliver to a range of environmental management goals. However, it is important to broaden this consideration to cover often overlooked facets of implementable WQGs, such as demonstrable field validation (i.e. does the WQG protect what it is supposed to?), fit for purpose of monitoring frameworks (often an on-going cost) and finally how are these monitoring data used to support management decisions in a manner that is transparent and understandable to stakeholders. It is clear that regulators and the regulated community have numerous pressures and constraints on their resources. Therefore, the final section of this paper addresses potential areas of collaboration and harmonisation. Such approaches could deliver a consistent foundation from which to assess potential chemical aquatic risks, including, for example, the adoption of bioavailability-based approaches for metals, whilst reducing administrative and technical burdens in jurisdictions.     

Tissue-based environmental quality benchmarks and standards

Although the use of tissue concentrations (residues) of chemical contaminants as the dose metric to characterize chemical toxicity to aquatic organisms has been gaining acceptance over the past 20 years, tissue concentrations are less commonly used in water quality management and have yet to be formally adopted as benchmarks or environmental quality standards (EQS). This synthesis paper addresses advantages and disadvantages for the development and application of tissue-based EQS as an alternative and supplement to exposure-based EQS determined with water and sediment concentration data. Tissue-based EQS can be readily developed in parallel with conventional toxicity tests, and achieved by quantification of chemical concentrations in tissue alongside traditional concentration-response toxicity testing. Tissue-residue toxicity metrics can be used as benchmarks for screening and monitoring water and sediment quality, to derive equivalent water or sediment EQS, and for ecological risk assessments and weight of evidence approaches for assessing ecosystem impairment. Tissue-based toxicity metrics and associated EQS provide several advantages; however, there are some limitations to consider and key knowledge gaps to fill.     

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi enhance both absorption and stabilization of Cd by Alfred stonecrop (Sedum alfredii Hance) and perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) in a Cd-contaminated acidic soil

A greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to compare the phytoextraction efficiencies of Cd by hyper-accumulating Alfred stonecrop (Sedum alfredii Hance) and fast-growing perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) from a Cd-contaminated (1.6 mg kg⁻¹) acidic soil, and their responses to the inoculations of two arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal strains, Glomus caledonium 90036 (Gc) and Glomus mosseae M47V (Gm). Ryegrass and stonecrop were harvested after growing for 9 and 27 wk, respectively. Without AM fungal inoculation, the weekly Cd extraction by stonecrop (8.0 μg pot⁻¹) was 4.3 times higher than that by ryegrass (1.5 μg pot⁻¹). Both Gc and Gm significantly increased (P < 0.05) root mycorrhizal colonization rates, soil acid phosphatase activities, and available P concentrations, and thereby plant P absorptions (except for Gm-inoculated ryegrass), shoot biomasses, and Cd absorptions (except for Gm-inoculated stonecrop), while only Gc-inoculated stonecrop significantly accelerated (P < 0.05) the phytoextraction efficiency of Cd by 78%. In addition, both Gc and Gm significantly decreased (P < 0.05) phytoavailable Cd concentrations by 21–38% via elevating soil pH. The results suggested the potential application of hyper-accumulating Alfred stonecrop associated with AM fungi (notably Gc) for both extraction and stabilization of Cd in the in situ treatment of Cd-contaminated acidic soil.     

A fluorometric method to determine rainfastness,volatilization and photostability of glyphosate from glass slides,after application of vision® with two adjuvants

Abstract

A fluorometric method was developed to quantify glyphosate loss from glass surfaces after exposure to the natural forest environment. The method was based on the principle of converting glyphosate into glycine, followed by the fluorogenic labeling with o‐phthalaldehyde. A fluorometer (with λ _Ex = 360 nm / λ_Em =430 nm) was used to quantify the derivatized fluorogenic compound. Response was linear over the concentration range of 143, 286, 572, 858 and 1144 μg of glyphosate (acid equivalent, AE) per mL of the diluted Vision® formulation. Three end‐use mixtures of Vision® were prepared, each at a concentration of 28.6 g AE/L, without and with two adjuvants, Ethomeen® T/25 at 4.5 mL/L and Silwet^® L‐77 at 1.5 mL/L. Several dilutions of the end‐use mixtures were applied on glass slides without and with the coating of cuticular wax extracted from trembling aspen foliage. The slides were left for 5 days in a forest opening to determine rainfastness, volatilization and photostability of glyphosate. The residues were quantified using the method developed. Three calibration curves were required because Silwet decreased the fluorometric response of glyphosate, whereas Ethomeen increased it. The minimum detection limit was 143 μg of glyphosate/mL. Glyphosate was resistant to volatilization and sunlight‐mediated degradation, regardless of the presence of wax coating or the adjuvants. About 64% of the applied glyphosate was washed off after a 9.6 mm rainfall when no adjuvant was present. Both adjuvants provided some amount of rain‐protection to glyphosate, but Silwet reduced the washoff to a greater extent (46%) than Ethomeen (55%).     

Urbanization,land use,and water quality in Shanghai. 1947-1996

The paper undertakes a preliminary investigation into the relationship between water quality and urbanization as well as the changing patterns of land use within Shanghai. Longitudinal changes to water quality at various points along the course of the Huangpu River are analysed and compared to changes in the rates of urbanization and changes in land uses. The results reveal that rapid urbanization corresponds with rapid degradation of water quality. It also shows that urban land uses are positively correlated with the decline in water quality. A regression model shows that close to 94% of the variability in water quality classifications is explained by industrial land area. The paper concludes with the need for comprehensive land use planning as a way of protecting valuable water resources.     

Connectedness, social support and internalising emotional and behavioural problems in adolescents displaced by the Chechen conflict

The study investigated factors associated with internalising emotional and behavioural problems among adolescents displaced during the most recent Chechen conflict. A cross-sectional survey (N=183) examined relationships between social support and connectedness with family, peers and community in relation to internalising problems. Levels of internalising were higher in displaced Chechen youth compared to published norms among non-referred youth in the United States and among Russian children not affected by conflict. Girls demonstrated higher problem scores compared to boys. Significant inverse correlations were observed between family, peer and community connectedness and internalising problems. In multivariate analyses, family connectedness was indicated as a significant predictor of internalising problems, independent of age, gender, housing status and other forms of support evaluated. Sub-analyses by gender indicated stronger protective relationships between family connectedness and internalising problems in boys. Results indicate that family connectedness is an important protective factor requiring further exploration by gender in war-affected adolescents.     

Chronic toxicity of tributyltin to development and reproduction of the European freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis (L.)

Chronic toxicity, growth and reproduction were measured in the freshwater gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis exposed to waterborne bis(tri-n-butyltin) oxide (TBTO) over a range of four nominal concentrations (0-10microg TBTl(-1)). Egg development was completely inhibited at 10microg TBTl(-1), whilst abnormal embryonic development was observed at 1microg TBTl(-1). For the solvent control and the 0.01microg TBTl(-1)treatment group, normal development of L. stagnalis was observed. Survivorship of hatchlings was significantly reduced by TBT at 1microgl(-1) while inhibition of shell growth of L. stagnalis was also observed at this concentration. The data were used to determine intrinsic growth rates (r) using two theoretical approaches (the Euler-Lotka equation and a Leslie Matrix). Both approaches showed that survival, fecundity and population growth rate were reduced at 1microg TBTl(-1). Interestingly, at 0.01microg TBTl(-1) snails showed a higher fecundity and growth rate than in the solvent control. The TBT concentration at which the r would equal zero (ECr(0)) and the population NOEC (No Observed Effect Concentration) were estimated. The population NOEC was defined as either the lower 95% confidence or lower 95% pointwise percentile limit of the ECr(0). Values obtained using the two different approaches were similar and thus a geometric mean was calculated to obtain a final representative population NOEC value for L. stagnalis of 2745ng TBTl(-1). The present data together with chronic toxicity TBT data for freshwater organisms, obtained from peer-reviewed literature, were used to construct a species sensitivity distribution (SSD). A predicted no effect concentration was then derived from the SSD (hazardous concentration at 5%, i.e., HC5 or 95% protection level). This SSD was compared with the SSD derived from saltwater species datasets. The HC5 value for saltwater species (3.55ng TBTl(-1); lower confidence limit: 1.93ng TBTl(-1)) was significantly lower than that for freshwater species (30.13ng TBTl(-1); lower confidence limit: 9.23ng TBTl(-1)), indicating that saltwater species are probably more susceptible to TBT than their freshwater counterparts.