Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.     

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

Effect of nitrogen fertilization on caffeine production in coffee (Coffea arabica)

Nitrogen (N) based secondary metabolite production is thought to be costly to plants because N is required for growth, as well as, the synthesis of these compounds. Therefore, variation in N availability may result in variation in N-based secondary metabolite production. Here, we determine the effect of N fertilization on caffeine (N-based alkaloid) production in coffee (Coffea arabica) seedlings. A growth chamber experiment was performed with three N treatments applied to seedlings. N fertilization increased plant growth, leaf biomass, and plant N. Caffeine concentration in phloem exudates was greater in high-N fertilized plants relative to intermediate- and low-N plants. However, leaf, stem, root, and total overall caffeine concentration and content did not differ across N treatments. These results suggest caffeine in coffee is strongly regulated by genetic factors, and environment is likely less important to caffeine phenotype. This is among the first studies to investigate the effect of N fertilization on caffeine within the phloem, which has important implications for herbivores that are sensitive to caffeine and plant N and feed from the phloem of coffee.     

Bias from two analytical laboratories involved in a long-term air monitoring program measuring organic pollutants in the Arctic: a quality assurance/quality control assessment

Initiated in 1992, air monitoring of organic pollutants in the Canadian Arctic provided spatial and temporal trends in support of Canada's participation in the Stockholm Convention of Persistent Organic Pollutants. The specific analytical laboratory charged with this task was changed in 2002 while field sampling protocols remained unchanged. Three rounds of intensive comparison studies were conducted in 2004, 2005, and 2008 to assess data comparability between the two laboratories. Analysis was compared for organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in standards, blind samples of mixed standards and extracts of real air samples. Good measurement accuracy was achieved for both laboratories when standards were analyzed. Variation of measurement accuracy over time was found for some OCPs and PCBs in standards on a random and non-systematic manner. Relatively low accuracy in analyzing blind samples was likely related to the process of sample purification. Inter-laboratory measurement differences for standards (<30%) and samples (<70%) were generally less than or comparable to those reported in a previous inter-laboratory study with 21 participating laboratories. Regression analysis showed inconsistent data comparability between the two laboratories during the initial stages of the study. These inter-laboratory differences can complicate abilities to discern long-term trends of pollutants in a given sampling site. It is advisable to maintain long-term measurements with minimal changes in sample analysis.     

Protein adducts as biomarkers of exposure to aromatic diisocyanates in workers manufacturing polyurethane (PUR) foam

This work was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of diisocyanate-related protein adducts in blood samples as biomarkers of occupational exposure to toluene diisocyanate (TDI; 2,4- and 2,6-isomers) and 4,4'-methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). Quantification of adducts as toluene diamines (TDAs) and methylenedianiline (MDA) was performed on perfluoroacylated derivatives by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) in negative chemical ionisation mode. TDI-derived adducts were found in 77% of plasma and in 59% of globin samples from exposed workers manufacturing flexible polyurethane foam. The plasma levels ranged from 0.003 to 0.58 nmol mL(-1) and those in globin from 0.012 to 0.33 nmol g(-1). The 2,6-isomer amounted to about two-thirds of the sum concentration of TDA isomers. MDI-derived adducts were detected in 3.5% of plasma and in 7% of globin samples from exposed workers manufacturing rigid polyurethane foam. A good correlation was found between the sum of TDA isomers in urine and that in plasma. The relationship between globin adducts and urinary metabolites was ambiguous. Monitoring TDI-derived TDA in plasma thus appears to be an appropriate method for assessing occupational exposure. Contrary to TDI exposure, adducts in plasma or globin were not useful in assessing workers' exposure to MDI. An important outcome of the study was that no amine-related adducts were detected in globin samples from TDI- or MDI-exposed workers, alleviating concerns that TDI or MDI might pose a carcinogenic hazard. Further studies are nevertheless required to judge whether diisocyanates per se could be such a hazard.     

瑞典沿岸水域濒临消失的大叶藻(Zostera Marina,L.)

在瑞典斯卡格拉克海峡沿岸,大叶藻(Zostera marina)是一种生长在浅水软海底上的优势显花植物.大叶藻场是许多甲壳动物和鱼类,不管是洄游种或是稳定种的重要群落生境.在20世纪80年代期间,作为海岸带管理的基础,对瑞典西海岸有大叶藻生长的沿岸浅水区的资源进行了调查.在这次研究中我们再次考察了斯卡格拉克海峡200km沿岸的5个沿海地区中的2000hm2大叶藻场.资源调查的方法(水下测量镜)与80年代的一样,但通过使用全球定位系统(GPS)增加了绘图的精确度.这次研究的结果表明,在10～15年的时间里,大叶藻的区域延伸面积减少了58%,且地区变化很大.大叶藻的减少主要限于大叶藻场的浅水部分.本文探讨了原因和生态后果.     

Riparian Ecosystem Management Model: Sensitivity to Soil,Vegetation, and Weather Input Parameters1

Abstract: The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) was developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture‐Agriculture Research Service (USDA‐ARS) and its cooperators to design and evaluate the efficiency of riparian buffer ecosystems for nonpoint source pollution reduction. REMM requires numerous inputs to simulate water movement, sediment transport, and nutrient cycling in the buffer system. In order to identify critical model inputs and their uncertainties, a univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine REMM output variables. The magnitude of each input parameter was changed from ?50% to +50% from the baseline data in 12 intervals or, in some cases, the complete range of an input was tested. Baseline model inputs for the sensitivity analysis were taken from Gibbs Farm, Georgia, where REMM was tested using a 5‐year field dataset. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that REMM responses were most sensitive to weather inputs, with minimum daily temperature having the greatest impact on the nitrogen‐related outputs. For example, the 100% change (?50% to +50%) in minimum daily temperature input values yielded a 164.4% change in total nitrogen (N), a 109.3% change in total nitrate (NO₃), and a 127.1% change in denitrification. REMM was most sensitive to precipitation with regard to total flow leaving the riparian vegetative buffer zone (199.8%) and sediment yield (138.2%). Deep seepage (12.2%), volumetric water content (24.8%), and pore size index (6.5%) in the buffer soil profile were the most influential inputs for the output water movement. Sediment yield was most sensitive to Manning’s coefficient (46.6%), bare soil percent (40.7%), and soil permeability (6.1%). For vegetation, specific leaf area, growing degree day coefficients, and maximum root depth influenced the nitrogen related outputs. Overall results suggest that because of the high sensitivity to weather parameters, on‐site weather data is needed for model calibration and validation. The model’s relatively low sensitivity to vegetation parameters also appears to support the use of regional vegetation datasets that would simplify model implementation without compromising results.     

Diurnal photosynthetic performance of seaweeds measured under natural conditions

Statements comparing photosynthetic performance characteristics of species rely upon empirical data, usually light-saturation curves (photosynthesis, P, versus incidentlight flux-density, I _o, relationships) derived from instantaneous measurements. The specific comparative parameters are initial slope and maximum photosynthesis, P _max. For phytoplankton, diurnal variation in specific productivity at maximum incident light, I _max is typically asymmetrical, i.e., there is a morning maximum followed by an afternoon depression. Five seaweed species, numerical dominants from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, were examined for patterns of diurnal photosynthetic performance in sunlight of habitat equivalence. These were Codium decorticatum (Woodw.) Howe and Ulva curvata (Kütz.) De Toni in the Chlorophyceae, Dictyota dichotoma (Huds.) Lamour. and Petalonia fascia (O.F. Müll.) Küntze in the Phaeophyceae, and Gracilaria foliifera (Forssk.) Børg. in the Rhodophyceae. Diurnal patterns of oxygen exchange were varied, some symmetrical about the midday axis, others asymmetrical, and were specific for (1) species, (2) derived habitat, (3) thallus absorptance (1-I/I _o, where I is the transmitted light), (4) developmental stage, and (5) diurnal photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) history. All species show a depression in oxygen exchange rates at less than 0.1 I _max, and show varying degrees of recovery when I _o decreases from that value. Diurnal photosynthetic performance of some species at 0.03 I _o (total diurnal maximum) exceeds several times that at 0.70 I _o (total diurnal maximum), an observation not predicted by instantaneous measurements. Specific day-rate integrals of I _o vary, producing transient initial slope and P _max values. Thus, initial slope and P _max values derived from instantaneous measurements in the laboratory bear little relationship to actual diurnal production. At this time there appears to be no substitute for direct measurement of diurnal photosynthesis.     

DUI offenders' perceptions and misperceptions of basic alcohol information

This paper describes the perceptions and misperceptions of basic alcohol and DUI-related information held by two groups of subjects: first-time DUI offenders and multiple-DUI offenders. The results revealed that both samples of subjects were well informed regarding some basic information (e.g., tolerance, elimination of alcohol from the body by the liver, effect of several drinks on increased likelihood of accident) and that the multiple-DUI offenders appeared more knowledgeable on several items (e.g., penalty for refusing breath test, beverage equivalency). These results tend to discredit the knowledge-deficit model of DUI prevention/education/rehabilitation, and an alternative coping skills model is proposed.