Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread: a spatial integral projection model

Plant survival, growth, and flowering are size dependent in many plant populations but also vary among individuals of the same size. This individual variation, along with variation in dispersal caused by differences in, e.g., seed release height, seed characteristics, and wind speed, is a key determinant of the spread rate of species through homogeneous landscapes. Here we develop spatial integral projection models (SIPMs) that include both demography and dispersal with continuous state variables. The advantage of this novel approach over discrete-stage spread models is that the effect of variation in plant size and size-dependent vital rates can be studied at much higher resolution. Comparing Neubert-Caswell matrix models to SIPMs allowed us to assess the importance of including individual variation in the models. As a test case we parameterized a SIPM with previously published data on the invasive monocarpic thistle Carduus nutans in New Zealand. Spread rate (c*) estimates were 34% lower than for standard spatial matrix models and stabilized with as few as seven evenly distributed size classes. The SIPM allowed us to calculate spread rate elasticities over the range of plant sizes, showing the size range of seedlings that contributed most to c* through their survival, growth and reproduction. The annual transitions of these seedlings were also the most important ones for local population growth (lambda). However, seedlings that reproduced within a year contributed relatively more to c* than to lambda. In contrast, plants that grow over several years to reach a large size and produce many more seeds, contributed relatively more to lambda than to c*. We show that matrix models pick up some of these details, while other details disappear within wide size classes. Our results show that SIPMs integrate various sources of variation much better than discrete-stage matrix models. Simpler, heuristic models, however, remain very valuable in studies where the main goal is to investigate the general impact of a life history stage on population dynamics. We conclude with a discussion of future extensions of SIPMs, including incorporation of continuous time and environmental drivers.     

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.     

Modeling Emissions from Elevated Cylindrical Bins

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how wind tunnel modeling data that accurately describe plume characteristics near an unconventional emission source can be used to improve the near-field downwind plume profiles predicted by conventional air pollution dispersion models. The study considers a vertical, cylindrical-shaped, elevated bin similar to large product storage bins that can be found at many industrial plant sites. Two dispersion models are considered: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ISC2(ST) model and the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Energy's GAS model. The wind tunnel study showed that plume behavior was contrary to what was predicted using conventional dispersion models such as ISC2(ST) and GAS and default values of input parameters. The wind tunnel data were used to develop a protocol for correcting the dispersion models inputs, resulting in a substantial improvement in the accuracy of the dispersion estimates.     

Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations

Analyses of ambient measured ozone data were used in conjunction with the application of photochemical modeling to determine the technical feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr ozone concentrations. However, VOC emissions reductions were found to have only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr ozone concentrations. NOx emission reductions generally lowered 8-hr ozone concentrations, but their effectiveness was partially or, in some cases, wholly offset by the increase in the number of NO cycles and, hence, in the ozone produced per NO. As a result, substantial NOx emission reductions--70 to 90%--were required to reduce peak 8-hr ozone concentrations to the level of the standard throughout the modeling domain. These modeling results provide a possible physical explanation for recent analyses that have reported more prominent trends in peak 1-hr ozone levels than in peak 8-hr ozone concentrations or in occurrences of mid-level (60-90 parts per billion by volume) ozone concentrations. The findings also have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Further efforts are needed to clarify the applicability of the modeling results to the full set of days with ozone levels exceeding the 8-hr ozone standard, as well as their applicability to other geographical areas.     

The impact of wet flue gas desulfurization scrubbing on mercury emissions from coal-fired power stations

This article introduces a predictive capability for Hg retention in any Ca-based wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) scrubber, given mercury (Hg) speciation at the FGD inlet, the flue gas composition, and the sulphur dioxide (SO2) capture efficiency. A preliminary statistical analysis of data from 17 full-scale wet FGDs connects flue gas compositions, the extents of Hg oxidation at FGD inlets, and Hg retention efficiencies. These connections clearly signal that solution chemistry within the FGD determines Hg retention. A more thorough analysis based on thermochemical equilibrium yields highly accurate predictions for total Hg retention with no parameter adjustments. For the most reliable data, the predictions were within measurement uncertainties for both limestone and Mg/lime systems operating in both forced and natural oxidation mode. With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Information Collection Request (ICR) database, the quantitative performance was almost as good for the most modern FGDs, which probably conform to the very high SO2 absorption efficiencies assumed in the calculations. The large discrepancies for older FGDs are tentatively attributed to the unspecified SO2 capture efficiencies and operating temperatures and to the possible elimination of HCl in prescrubbers. The equilibrium calculations suggest that Hg retention is most sensitive to inlet HCl and O2 levels and the FGD temperature; weakly dependent on SO2 capture efficiency; and insensitive to HgCl2, NO, CA:S ratio, slurry dilution level in limestone FGDs, and MgSO3 levels in Mg/lime systems. Consequently, systems with prescrubbers to eliminate HCl probably retain less Hg than fully integrated FGDs. The analysis also predicts re-emission of Hg(O) but only for inlet O2 levels that are much lower than those in full-scale FGDs.     

Heterogeneous response of central European streams to decreased acidic atmospheric deposition

We investigated the relations between mountain streamwater chemistry and atmospheric pollution in an arca of 1611 km2 of the Czech Republic by comparing concentrations of SO4. NO3, Cl, Ca and the pH at 432 localities at the time of high (1984-1986) and relatively low (1996-2000) acidic atmospheric deposition. Medians of Cl. SO4, and NO3 decreased by 17, 96 and 60 microeq l(-1), or by 23, 17 and 49%, respectively, during 12 +/- 2 years. The decreased Cl corresponds to decreased emission of industrial Cl (as HCl). The decreased stream SO4 was proportionally lower than the 71% decrease in S-emissions due to leaching of previously accumulated SO4 from soils and non-zero background concentrations. Decreases of NO3 up to 60% in streamwaters with pH < or = 6 was greater than the decrease of N emission in central Europe, about 35%. Extensive regional decrease of NO3 is surprising and is probably described for the first time. The difference in NO3 concentrations between the two periods was probably enhanced by (a) an increase of mineralisation of forest floor in the mid-1980s and (b) by higher uptake of N in the late-1990s. The median pH of the 432 streams did not change but the pH of the sub-population with pH < 6 in the mid-1980s recovered substantially. The pH of circum-neutral streams (pH > 6.5) decreased even as acidic atmospheric deposition decreased.