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251.
Terry V.Callaghan Lars Olof Bjrn Yuri Chernov Terry Chapin Torben R.Christensen Brain Huntley Rolf A.Ims Margareta Johansson Dyanna Jolly Sven Jonasson Nadya Matveyeva Nicolai Panikov Walter Oechel Gus Shaver Sibyll Schaphoff Stephen Sitch 《Ambio-人类环境杂志》2004,33(7):435-444
北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向. 相似文献
252.
应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
Ann Kinzig David starrett Kenneth Arrow Sara Aniyar Bert Bolin Partha Dasgupta Paul Ehrlich Carl Folke Michael Hanemann Geoff Heal Michael Hoel AnnMari Jansson Bengt-Owe Jansson Nils Kautsky Simon Levin Jane Lubchenco Karl-Gran Miler Stephen W.Pacala Stephen H.Schneider Domenico Siniscalco Brian Walker 《Ambio-人类环境杂志》2003,32(5):330-335
科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛. 相似文献
253.
Stephen J. Rossiter Gareth Jones Roger D. Ransome Elizabeth M. Barratt 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2002,51(6):510-518
Female greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) exhibit strong natal philopatry to their maternity roost over many years, leading to the aggregation of matrilineal kin. Maternity colonies may, therefore, be expected to comprise highly related individuals, and, as such, provide conditions suitable for the evolution of kin-selected behaviours. To test these predictions, we examined relatedness and behaviour among matrilineal kin within a colony in south-west Britain. Genetic analysis of 15 matrilines, identified from microsatellite genotyping and long-term ringing surveys, revealed average relatedness levels of 0.17 to 0.64. In contrast, background relatedness among colony females approximated to zero (0.03). These results suggest that inclusive fitness benefits may only be accrued through discriminate cooperation within matrilines, and not at the wider colony level. To examine whether the potential for such benefits is realised through kin- biased cooperation during foraging, females from two matrilines were radio-tracked simultaneously over 3 years. Pairwise home-range overlap correlated significantly with Hamilton's relatedness coefficient. The greatest spatial associations were observed between females and their adult daughters, which shared both foraging grounds and night roosts, sometimes over several years. Tagged females, however, generally foraged and roosted alone, suggesting that kin-biased spatial association probably does not result from either information-transfer or cooperative territorial defence. Such patterns may instead result from a mechanism of maternal inheritance of preferred foraging and roosting sites. 相似文献
254.
Rocky Mountain bighorn rams use three distinct tactics in competition for mates. Two tactics (tending and blocking) feature
defense and cooperative mating over a relatively prolonged consort period (up to 3 days). In the coursing tactic, subordinate
rams fight dominants for temporary copulatory access (lasting seconds) to defended ewes. By combining population-wide genetic
(microsatellite) exclusion of paternity, behavioral data and a model of bighorn reproductive competition, we estimated that
coursing rams fathered 44% of 142 lambs assigned paternity in two natural populations. In one population, the probability
of successful defense against coursing was lowest among rams that had many female consorts and held highest dominance rank.
Even so, per capita annual male reproductive success was positively associated with social rank in both herds when measured
in terms of fall conceptions. The proportion of coursing versus defending ram matings in each population (0.36 and 0.39) was
similar to the corresponding fraction of lambs (0.43 and 0.47) fathered by coursing rams, suggesting that sperm competition
approximated a fair lottery. Male traits important in gaining social status and obtaining cooperative consorts with ewes were
different and potentially in conflict with those needed to defend against (and practise) coursing. Although the concussive
weapons (horns) of rams are less dangerous than, for example, the piercing weapons of other bovids, injury from falls and
horn blows during coursing brawls may cause death, handicap future mating competition or increase the risk of predation. Coursing
is a rare example of an unconventional alternative mating tactic that is high-gain and high-risk.
Received: 17 April 1996 / Accepted after revision: 15 March 1997 相似文献
255.
Summary Male preference for large females as mates was demonstrated in the wood-boring weevil, Brentus anchorago (Coleoptera: Brentidae) by observation and by mate choice experiments in which the complicating factor of male rivalry was eliminated. Adult weight varied at least 23-fold in a large breeding aggregation in Panama. Drilling females guarded by males were larger than unguarded drilling females, and the number of males attending a drilling female increased with length of the female. Thus despite a sex ratio of about 1:1, males were unevenly distributed among the females. A male attending a female had on average about 1 rival male in his vicinity (Lloyd's Index of Mean Crowding). Male preference for large females in the absence of rival males was directly tested in choice arenas on the surface of the host tree. When a large and a small female were simultaneously presented, large and small males alike mated first with the large female. Male choice of large females is probably adaptive in Brentus anchorago because larger females lay larger eggs, which produce larger offspring in a competitive larval environment. Male choice in this species is associated with high male mating investment and time commitment per female, and not with high male parental investment. 相似文献
256.
An evaluation of the urban stormwater pollutant removal efficiency of catch basin inserts. 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robert A Morgan Findlay G Edwards Kristofor R Brye Stephen J Burian 《Water environment research》2005,77(5):500-510
In a storm sewer system, the catch basin is the interface between surface runoff and the sewer. Responding to the need to improve the quality of stormwater from urban areas and transportation facilities, and spurred by Phase I and II Stormwater Rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, several companies market catch basin inserts as best management practices for urban water quality management. However, little data have been collected under controlled tests that indicate the pollutant removal efficiency of these inserts when the inflow is near what can be expected to occur in the field. A stormwater simulator was constructed to test inserts under controlled and replicable conditions. The inserts were tested for removal efficiency of total suspended solids (TSS) and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) at an inflow rate of 757 to 814 L/min, with influent pollutant concentrations of 225 mg/L TSS and 30 mg/L TPH. These conditions are similar to stormwater runoff from small commercial sites in the southeastern United States. Results from the tests indicate that at the test flowrate and pollutant concentration, average TSS removal efficiencies ranged from 11 to 42% and, for TPH, the removal efficiency ranged from 10 to 19%. 相似文献
257.
Cleaning oiled shores: laboratory experiments testing the potential use of vegetable oil biodiesels 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
A series of laboratory experiments were carried out to test the potential of vegetable oil biodiesel for the cleaning of oiled shorelines. In batch experiments, biodiesel was shown to have a considerable capacity to dissolve crude oil, which appears to be dependent on the type of biodiesel used. Pure vegetable oil biodiesels (rapeseed and soybean) were significantly more effective in the cleanup of oiled sands (up to 96%) than recycled waste cooking oil biodiesel (70%).In microcosm and mesocosm experiments, oiled sediments were sprayed with biodiesel and subjected to simulated tides. Microcosm experiments revealed that, of those tested, the highest ratio of biodiesel to crude oil, had the highest effectiveness for cleaning fine sands, with ratios of 2:1 (biodiesel:crude oil) giving the best results. In the mesocosm experiments a ratio 1:1 of soybean biodiesel to crude oil removed 80% of the oil in cobbles and fine sands, 50% in coarse sand and 30% in gravel. Most of the oil was removed with the surface water, with only a small amount being flushed through the sediments. Particle size and pore size were important determinants in the cleanup and mobility of crude oil in the sediments in these static systems. It is expected that the biodiesel effectiveness should improve in the natural environment particularly in exposed beaches with strong wave action. However, more laboratory and field trials are required to confirm the operational use of biodiesel as a shoreline cleaner. 相似文献
258.
Some of a variety of commercial emulsifiers were capable of enhancing the sensitivity of mammalian cells in culture to infection with several viruses. Those viruses which were enhanced in their replication were single-stranded RNA viruses whereas the double-stranded viruses tested were non-responders. In addition, some cells lines, as compared to others, responded in a more sensitive manner to the active emulsifiers. 相似文献
259.
The practice of integrated coastal management (ICM) has matured sufficiently since its beginnings in the early 1980s to suggest a set of principles that could be used to guide the massive investments that will be made over the next several years to rehabilitate and reconstruct the thousands of kilometers of coastlines devastated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami. We offer six principles to guide what can be done to make coastal communities less vulnerable, to improve the conditions of the poor, and to avoid repeating the mistaken judgements that have been made in the past about how shorelines are allocated and developed. We then offer a set of five principles to guide how action plans are formulated and implemented. These stress the critical importance of tailoring principles to the unique conditions and needs of each place. The roles of national government in setting policies to guide a decentralized planning and decision-making process are distinguished from a negotiation process that engages the people of the place in a bottom-up application of ICM good practices. 相似文献
260.
Susanne J. McDonald Mahlon C. Kennicutt II Jose Sericano Terry L. Wade Hong Liu Stephen H. Safe 《Chemosphere》1994,28(12):2237-2248
Variable levels of halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons were measured in clams (Laternula elliptica) collected from McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Clams collected in and near Winter Quarters Bay contained high levels of organochlorine compounds, particularly polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). A strong gradient has been documented in Winter Quarters Bay that been linked to human activities at McMurdo Station. The activity of clam extracts as inducers of P4501A1-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity was determined using in vitro bioassays utilizing rat hepatoma H4IIE cells. The extracts which exhibited the highest induction activities were those derived from clams collected in contaminated areas. Additionally, there was an excellent linear correlation between induced EROD activity versus total PCB levels (r2=0.96). The complimentary nature of both the analytical and bioanalytical data confirms the utility of the latter assay and provides a method for estimating the 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) toxic equivalents in extracts from marine biota. 相似文献