The contribution of policy,law, management,research, and advocacy failings to the recent extinctions of three Australian vertebrate species

Extinctions typically have ecological drivers, such as habitat loss. However, extinction events are also influenced by policy and management settings that may be antithetical to biodiversity conservation, inadequate to prevent extinction, insufficiently resourced, or poorly implemented. Three endemic Australian vertebrate species—the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi), Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola), and Christmas Island forest skink (Emoia nativitatis)—became extinct from 2009 to 2014. All 3 extinctions were predictable and probably preventable. We sought to identify the policy, management, research, and other shortcomings that contributed to their extinctions or failed to prevent them. These included a lack within national environmental legislation and policy of explicit commitment to the prevention of avoidable extinctions, lack of explicit accountability, inadequate resources for conservation (particularly for species not considered charismatic or not of high taxonomic distinctiveness), inadequate biosecurity, a slow and inadequate process for listing species as threatened, recovery planning that failed to consider the need for emergency response, inability of researchers to identify major threatening factors, lack of public engagement and involvement in conservation decisions, and limited advocacy. From these 3 cases, we recommend: environmental policy explicitly seeks to prevent extinction of any species and provides a clear chain of accountability and an explicit requirement for public inquiry following any extinction; implementation of a timely and comprehensive process for listing species as threatened and for recovery planning; reservation alone not be assumed sufficient to maintain species; enhancement of biosecurity measures; allocation of sufficient resources to undertake actions necessary to prevent extinction; monitoring be considered a pivotal component of the conservation response; research provides timely identification of factors responsible for decline and of the risk of extinction; effective dissemination of research results; advocacy by an informed public for the recovery of threatened species; and public involvement in governance of the recovery process. These recommendations should be applicable broadly to reduce the likelihood and incidence of extinctions.     

The importance of Indigenous Peoples’ lands for the conservation of terrestrial mammals

Indigenous Peoples’ lands cover over one-quarter of Earth's surface, a significant proportion of which is still free from industrial-level human impacts. As a result, Indigenous Peoples and their lands are crucial for the long-term persistence of Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, information on species composition on these lands globally remains largely unknown. We conducted the first comprehensive analysis of terrestrial mammal composition across mapped Indigenous lands based on data on area of habitat (AOH) for 4460 mammal species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. We overlaid each species’ AOH on a current map of Indigenous lands and found that 2695 species (60% of assessed mammals) had ≥10% of their ranges on Indigenous Peoples’ lands and 1009 species (23%) had >50% of their ranges on these lands. For threatened species, 473 (47%) occurred on Indigenous lands with 26% having >50% of their habitat on these lands. We also found that 935 mammal species (131 categorized as threatened) had ≥ 10% of their range on Indigenous Peoples’ lands that had low human pressure. Our results show how important Indigenous Peoples’ lands are to the successful implementation of conservation and sustainable development agendas worldwide.     

Evidence for ecological matching of whole AM fungal communities to the local plant-soil environment

The range of ecological roles exhibited by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi depends on functional differences among naturally occurring local assemblages of AM species. While functional differences have been demonstrated among AM fungal species and among geographic isolates of the same species, almost nothing is known about functional differences among whole communities of naturally occurring AM fungi. In the greenhouse, we reciprocally transplanted whole AM fungal communities between plant-soil systems representing a serpentine grassland and a tallgrass prairie, using as hosts two grasses common to both systems. For Sorghastrum nutans, native fungi consistently enhanced plant growth more than fungi switched from the alternate system. For Schizachyrium scoparium, foreign and native fungi promoted plant growth similarly in both the serpentine and prairie systems. Thus, the use of foreign inoculum in restoration could change the relative performance, and potentially the competitive abilities, of co-occurring plant species. Moving AM fungal inocula into foreign environments also caused changes in the taxonomic composition of the resultant spore communities, demonstrating their response to environmental influences. These results provide strong evidence for functional differences among naturally occurring AM communities and suggest that a particular AM fungal community may be better matched ecologically to its local habitat than communities taken from other locations.     

Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.We have developed a compromise between these two extremes, which is complex enough to describe real reef data, but simple enough that we can estimate parameters for a specific reef from a time series. In previous work, we fitted this model to a long-term data set from Heron Island, Australia, using maximum likelihood methods. To evaluate predictions from this model, we need estimates of the uncertainty in our parameters. Here, we obtain such estimates using Bayesian Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We do this for versions of the model in which corals are aggregated into a single state variable (the three-state model), and in which corals are separated into four state variables (the six-state model), in order to determine the appropriate level of aggregation. We also estimate the posterior distribution of predicted trajectories in each case.In both cases, the fitted trajectories were close to the observed data, but we had doubts about the biological plausibility of some parameter estimates. We suggest that informative prior distributions incorporating expert knowledge may resolve this problem. In the six-state model, the posterior distribution of state frequencies after 40 years contained two divergent community types, one dominated by free space and soft corals, and one dominated by acroporid, pocilloporid, and massive corals. The three-state model predicts only a single community type. We conclude that the three-state model hides too much biological heterogeneity, but we need more data if we are to obtain reliable predictions from the six-state model. It is likely that there will be similarly large, but currently unevaluated, uncertainty in the predictions of other coral reef models, many of which are much more complex and harder to fit to real data.     

Transatlantic migration by post-breeding puffins: a strategy to exploit a temporarily abundant food resource?

The distribution of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) from Skellig Michael, south-west Ireland, was investigated using geolocation loggers between the 2010 and 2011 breeding seasons. All tracked birds travelled rapidly west into the North Atlantic at the end of the breeding season in August, with the majority undertaking transatlantic trips from Ireland to the Newfoundland-Labrador shelf. The furthest distance from the colony reached by each bird was not influenced by body mass or sex and was achieved in approximately 20 days. By October, all birds had moved back to the mid Atlantic where they remained resident until returning to the breeding colony. The most parsimonious explanation for the rapid, directed long-distance migration is that birds exploit the seasonally high abundance of prey [e.g., fish species such as capelin (Mallotus villosus) and sandlance (Ammodytes spp.)] off the Canadian coast, which is also utilised by large populations of North American seabirds at this time. Once the availability of this short-term prey resource has diminished, the tracked puffins moved back towards the north-east Atlantic. A relationship between relative abundance of puffins and zooplankton was found in all winter months, but after correcting for spatial autocorrelation, was only significant in November and January. Nevertheless, these results suggest a potential switch in diet from mainly fish during the breeding and early post-breeding periods to zooplankton over the remaining winter period. This study suggests that puffins from south-west Ireland have a long-distance migration strategy that is rare in breeding puffins from the UK and identifies a key non-breeding destination for puffins from Ireland. This has implications for the susceptibility of different breeding populations to the effects of possible climatic or oceanographic change.     

Environmental policy with collective waste disposal

Centralized collection and disposal is an integral component of waste management strategies for many solid and liquid wastes, and carbon capture and storage is currently being considered for gaseous waste. In this paper we show how collective waste disposal systems introduce essential changes in the design of optimal environmental policy. Absent collective disposal, an optimal environmental policy imposes relatively stringent regulations on polluters in regions where local environmental damage functions are “high”; however, under collective waste disposal, the optimal environmental policy level increases monotonically over distance from the disposal site, and this is true irrespective of the degree of spatial heterogeneity in local environmental damage functions. We characterize the optimal spatial pattern of environmental policy levels under collective waste disposal and identify optimal membership size for waste disposal networks comprised of homogeneous producers.     

Emissions standards and ambient environmental quality standards with stochastic environmental services

Many important environmental policies involve some combination of emission controls and ambient environmental quality standards, for instance SO₂ emissions are capped under Title IV of the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments while ambient SO₂ concentrations are limited under National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). This paper examines the relative performance of emissions standards and ambient standards when the natural environment provides stochastic environmental services for assimilating pollution. For receiving media characterized by greater dispersion in the distribution of environmental services, the optimal emissions policy becomes more stringent, whereas the optimal ambient policy generally becomes more lax. In terms of economic performance, emissions policies are superior to ambient policies for relatively non-toxic pollutants, whereas ambient standards welfare dominate emissions standards for sufficiently toxic pollutants. In the case of combined policies that jointly implement emissions standards and ambient standards, we show that the optimal level of each standard relaxes relative to its counterpart in a unilateral policy, allowing for greater emissions levels and higher pollution concentrations in the environmental medium.     

Asymmetric contests at the nest

Hatching asynchrony of nestling birds leads to weight asymmetries, which in turn affect the nestlings’ relative success when competing for feedings brought to the nest. We present a game theoretic model that predicts how weight asymmetry influences the nestlings’ energy on securing feedings, thus determining the caloric value remaining for weight gain as well as the distribution of feedings obtained. The model has a unique Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS) profile, in which nestlings in more asymmetric nests exhibit less aggression and hence achieve larger weight gain per feeding. The impetus for this model was data from a long-term study of Arabian babblers (Turdoides squamiceps) that showed a surprising negative correlation between the number of feedings that a nest received and the overall weight gain in the nest. This finding is, however, entirely consistent with our model—in more symmetric nests, the individuals fight more and are consequently hungrier and beg for additional food, are fed more, but still gain less weight due to the higher energetic costs of fighting. The model provides a fundamental explanation also for related findings in other species, in which chicks in asynchronous broods were found to be heavier than those from synchronous broods. In addition, it supports the sibling rivalry hypothesis by which brood asynchrony may diminish aggressive interactions among nestlings, leading to more efficient use of resources.