METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

Spatiotemporal variability of wet atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Excessive nitrogen (N) loading to N-sensitive waters such as the Neuse River estuary (North Carolina) has been shown to promote changes in microbial and algal community composition and function (harmful algal blooms), hypoxia and anoxia, and fish kills. Previous studies have estimated that wet atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (WAD-N), as deposition of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN: NO3-, NH3/NH4+) and dissolved organic nitrogen, may contribute at least 15% of the total externally supplied or "new" N flux to the coastal waters of North Carolina. In a 3-yr study from June 1996 to June 1999, we calculated the weekly wet deposition of inorganic and organic N at eleven sites on a northwest-southeast transect in the watershed. The annual mean total (wet DIN + wet organics) WAD-N flux for the Neuse River watershed was calculated to be 956 mg N/m2/yr (15026 Mg N/yr). Seasonally, the spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) months contain the highest total weekly N deposition; this pattern appears to be driven by N concentration in precipitation. There is also spatial variability in WAD-N deposition; in general, the upper portion of the watershed receives the lowest annual deposition and the middle portion of the watershed receives the highest deposition. Based on a range of watershed N retention and in-stream riverine processing values, we estimate that this flux contributes approximately 24% of the total "new" N flux to the estuary.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

Managing erosion and water quality in agricultural watersheds by small detention ponds

Terrace-contouring systems with on-site water detention cannot be installed in areas of complex topography, small parceling and multi-blade moldboard plow use. However, field borders at the downslope end may be raised at the deepest part where runoff overtops to create detention ponds, which can be drained by subsurface tile outlets and act similar to terrace-contouring systems. Four of such detention ponds were monitored over 8 years. Monitored effects included the prevention of linear erosion down slope, the sediment trapping from upslope, the enrichment of major nutrients in the trapped and delivered sediments, the amount of runoff retained temporarily, the amount of runoff reduced by infiltration, the decrease in peak runoff rate and the decrease in peak concentrations of agrochemicals due to the mixing of different volumes of water within the detention ponds. The detention ponds had a volume of 30–260 m³ ha⁻¹ and trapped 54–85% of the incoming sediment, which was insignificantly to slightly depleted (5–25%) in organic carbon, phosphorus, nitrogen and clay as compared to the eroding topsoil, while the delivered sediment was strongly enriched (+70–270%) but part of this enrichment already resulted from the enrichment of soil loss. The detention ponds temporarily stored 200–500 m³ of runoff. A failure was never experienced. Due to the siltation of the pond bottom, the short filled time (1–5 days) and the small water covered area, infiltration and evaporation reduced runoff by less than 10% for large events. Peak runoff during heavy rains was lowered by a factor of three. Peak concentrations of agrochemicals (Terbutylazin) were lowered by a factor of two. The detention ponds created by raising the downslope field borders at the pour point efficiently reduced adverse erosion effects downslope the eroding site. They are cheap and can easily be created with on-farm machinery. Their efficiency is improved where they are combined with an on-site erosion control like mulch tillage because sediment and runoff input are reduced. Ponds had to be dredged only after the first year when on-site erosion control was not fully effective.     

The difference of morphological characteristics and population structure in PAO and DPAOgranular sludges

We examined how long-term operation of anaerobic–oxic and anaerobic–anoxic sequencing batch reactors(SBRs) affects the enhanced biological phosphorus removal(EBPR)performance and sludge characteristics. The microbial characteristics of phosphorus accumulating organism(PAO) and denitrifying PAO(DPAO) sludge were also analyzed through a quantitative analysis of microbial community structure. Compared with the initial stage of operation characterized by unstable EBPR, both PAO and DPAO SBR produced a stable EBPR performance after about 100-day operation. From day 200 days(DPAO SBR)and 250 days(PAO SBR) onward, sludge granulation was observed, and the average granule size of DPAO SBR was approximately 5 times larger than that of PAO SBR. The DPAO granular sludge contained mainly rod-type microbes, whereas the PAO granular sludge contained coccus-type microbes. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis revealed that a high ratio of Accumulibacter clade I was found only in DPAO SBR, revealing the important role of this organism in the denitrifying EBPR system. A pyrosequencing analysis showed that Accumulibacter phosphatis was present in PAO sludge at a high proportion of 6%,whereas it rarely observed in DPAO sludge. Dechloromonas was observed in both PAO sludge(3.3%) and DPAO sludge(3.2%), confirming that this organism can use both O_2 and NO_3~- as electron acceptors. Further, Thauera spp. was identified to have a new possibility as denitrifier capable of phosphorous uptake under anoxic condition.     

蠕虫在膜生物反应器和活性污泥法中的污泥减量研究

通过长达345d的中试规模试验,研究比较了蠕虫在膜生物反应器(MBR)和活性污泥法(CAS)的生长状况及其导致的污泥减量效果.CAS中的蠕虫生长状况明显优于MBR的蠕虫生长状况.MBR曝气池中平均蠕虫密度(10条·mg-1)远低于CAS曝气池中平均蠕虫密度(71条·mg-1),并且CAS中蠕虫连续保持高密度(>30条·mg-1)生长达172d.CAS中红斑瓢体虫和仙女虫交替成为优势蠕虫.蠕虫生长对MBR的污泥产率(0 40kg·kg-1)和污泥沉降性能(污泥沉降指数133mL·g-1)影响很小,但却能显著减少CAS的污泥产率(0 17kg·kg-1)和改善污泥沉降性能(污泥沉降指数为60mL·g-1).仙女虫比红斑瓢体虫能更大地减少污泥产量和更好地改善污泥沉降性能.蠕虫生长不影响MBR的COD去除率和出水水质,但却显著影响CAS的COD去除率和出水水质.     

喀斯特地区长期草地利用制度对群落稳定性的影响

草地利用方式和混播组合对群落特性的长期影响不同。利用方式对白三叶(Trifolium repens)盖度没有显著影响,而混播组合与利用方式的交互作用影响显著。白三叶在宿营处理和刈割为主利用下的与鸭茅(Dactylis glomerata)混播中的比例最低,而在刈割利用和宿营处理的多年生黑麦草(Lolium perenne)组合中的盖度最高。混播组合对禾本科组分盖度影响不显著,但利用方式和交互作用有显著的作用,长期放牧绵羊的混播草地多年生黑麦草很少。混播组合对杂草密度、盖度和多样性指数的影响不明显,而利用方式和交互作用显著地影响杂草盖度和多样性指数。放牧草地中的杂草密度高于刈割草地的,其中放牧利用的白三叶/多年生黑麦草草地最高。放牧牛的草地杂草密度较少,而放牧绵羊的草地杂草较多。白三叶、禾本科牧草以及杂草的密度都显著地受混播组合、利用方式及其交互作用的影响,说明密度是一个敏感的指标。     

Respiration and lipid content of the Arctic copepod<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Calanus hyperboreus</Emphasis> overwintering 1 m above the seafloor at 2,300 m water depth in the Fram Strait

In August 2000 high concentrations of the dominant herbivorous copepod Calanus hyperboreus were detected in the Arctic Fram Strait, west of Spitsbergen, 1 m above the seafloor at 2,290 m water depth. Individuals from that layer were sampled by a hyper-benthic net attached to the frame of an epi-benthic sledge. For comparison, the vertical distribution of C. hyperboreus in the water column was studied simultaneously by a multiple opening/closing net haul from 2,250 m depth to the surface. Maximum abundance was found close to the surface with 6.6 and 10.0 ind. m^?3 at 0–50 m and 50–100 m depth, respectively. However, the major fraction of the population (>40%) occurred between 1,000 and 1,500 m depth. In the deepest layer (2,000–2,250 m) abundance measured 2.2 ind. m^?3 and was twice as high as between 100 and 1,000 m depth. In comparison to individuals from surface waters, copepods from the hyper-benthic layer were torpid and did not react to mechanical stimuli. Stage CV copepodids and females from the deep sample contained 4–10% less lipid and showed significantly reduced respiration rates of 0.24 and 0.26 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 dry mass (DM) as compared to surface samples (0.49 and 0.43 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 DM). All these observations indicate that the hyper-benthic part of the population had already started a dormant overwintering phase at great depth. Based on the lipid deposits and energy demands, the potential maximum duration of the non-feeding dormant phase was estimated at 76–110 days for females and at 98–137 days for CV copepodids, depending on what indispensable minimum lipid content was assumed. In any case, the estimated times could not meet the necessary requirements for a starvation period of >6 months until the next phytoplankton bloom in the following spring. The ecological implications of these results are discussed with respect to the life cycle and eco-physiological adaptations of C. hyperboreus to its high-Arctic habitat.