Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Integrating Remote Sensing Approach with Pollution Monitoring Tools for Aquatic Ecosystem Risk Assessment and Managment: A Case Study of Lake Victoria(UGANDA)

Aquatic ecosystems around the world, lake, estuaries and coastal areas are increasingly impacted by anthropogenic pollutants through different sources such as agricultural, industrial and urban discharges, atmospheric deposition and terrestrial drainage. Lake Victoria is the second largest lake in the world and the largest tropical lake. Bordered by Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya, it provides a livelihood for millions of Africans in the region. However, the lake is under threat from eutrophication, a huge decline in the number of native fish species caused by several factors including loss of biodiversity, over fishing and pollution has been recently documented. Increasing usage of pesticides and insecticides in the adjacent agricultural areas as well as mercury contamination from processing of gold ore on the southern shores are currently considered among the most emergent phenomena of chemical contamination in the lake. By the application of globally consistent and comprehensive geospatial data-sets based on remote sensing integrated with information on heavy metals accumulation and insecticides exposure in native and alien fish populations, the present study aims at assessing the environmental risk associated to the contamination of the Lake Victoria water body on fish health, land cover distribution, biodiversity and the agricultural area surrounding the lake. By the elaboration of Landsat 7 TM data of November 2002 and Landsat 7 TM 1986 we have calculated the agriculture area which borders the Lake Victoria bay, which is an upland plain. This process has greatly enhanced nutrient loading to the soil, which is subsequently transported to the lake by rain or as dry fall. All the data has been insert in the Geographical information System (ARCGIS) to be upgraded and consulted. Heavy metals in fish fillets showed concentrations rather low except for mercury being higher than others as already described in previous investigations. In the same tissue, cholinesterases activity (ChE) as an indicator of insecticides exposure showed significant differences among fish species in both activity and sensitivity of selected inhibitor insecticides. This integrated approach aims at identifying and quantifying selected aquatic environmental issues which integrated with monitoring techniques such as contaminant concentrations and biological responses to insecticides exposure in fish populations will provide a scientific basis for aquatic zones management and assist in policy formulations at the national and international levels.     

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4–7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas.

Methods: During 4 consecutive school years, 2011–2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P₀), 1–4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P₁), and 4–5 months later (P₂). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process.

The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections.

The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling.

Results: In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P₀ and P₁ (P₀ = 4.8%, P₁ = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P₂ time period (P₂ = 25.7%; P < .001, for P₀ vs. P₂) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P₀ time period and compared to the comparison schools.

Conclusion: Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Impact of roadside noise barriers on particle size distributions and pollutants concentrations near freeways

Increasing epidemiological evidence has established an association between a host of adverse health effects and exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and co-pollutants, especially those emitted from motor vehicles. Although PM and their co-pollutants dispersion profiles near the open freeway have been extensively characterized by means of both experimental measurements and numerical simulations in recent years, such investigations near freeways with roadside barriers have not been well documented in the literature. A few previous studies suggested that the presence of roadside structures, such as noise barriers and vegetation, may impact the decay of pollutant concentrations downwind of the freeway by limiting the initial dispersion of traffic emissions and increasing their vertical mixing due to the upward deflection of airflow. Since the noise barriers are now common roadside features of the freeways, particularly those running through populated urban areas, it is pertinent to investigate the impact of their presence on the particles and co-pollutants concentrations in areas adjacent to busy roadways. This study investigated two highly trafficked freeways (I-710 and I-5) in Southern California, with two sampling sites for each freeway, one with and the other without the roadside noise barriers. Particle size distributions and co-pollutants concentrations were measured in the immediate proximity of freeways and at different distances downwind of the freeways. The results showed the formation of a “concentration deficit” zone in the immediate vicinity of the freeway with the presence of roadside noise barrier, followed by a surge of pollutant concentrations further downwind at 80–100 m away from freeway. The particle and co-pollutants concentrations reach background levels at farther distances of 250–400 m compared to 150–200 m at the sites without roadside noise barriers.     

Evaluation of a detailed model of secondary organic aerosol formation from α-pinene against dark ozonolysis experiments

BOREAM, a detailed model for the gas-phase oxidation of α-pinene and its subsequent formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), is tested against a large set of SOA yield measurements obtained in dark ozonolysis experiments. For the majority of experiments, modelled SOA yields are found to agree with measured yields to within a factor 2. However, the comparisons point to a general underestimation of modelled SOA yields at high temperatures (above 30 °C), reaching an order of magnitude or more in the worst cases, whereas modelled SOA yields are often overestimated at lower temperature (by a factor of about 2). Comparisons of results obtained using four different vapour pressure prediction methods indicate a strong sensitivity to the choice of the method, although the overestimated temperature dependence of the yields is found in all cases. Accounting for non-ideality of the aerosol mixture (based on an adapted UNIFAC method) has significant effects, especially at low yields. Our simulations show that the formation of oligomers through the gas-phase reactions of Stabilised Criegee Intermediates (SCI) with other molecular organic products could increase the SOA yield significantly only at very low relative humidity (below 1%). Further tests show that the agreement between model and measurements is improved when the ozonolysis mechanism includes additional production of non-volatile compounds.     

Cross-reactivity of anti-Salmonella egg-yolk antibodies to Salmonella serovars

The cross-reactivity of egg yolk antibodies specific to antigens of Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Typhimurium to killed bacterial cells of common Salmonella serovars were tested using an indirect Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Egg yolk antibodies were produced against purified fimbriae, flagella and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of S. Enteritidis strain ATCC13076 and flagella, LPS and outer membrane proteins (OMP) of S. Typhimurium strain ATCC13311. For immunological specificity of egg yolk antibodies against killed bacterial cells, we found that the titers of the anti-S. Enteritidis egg yolk antibodies were higher than those of the anti-S. Typhimurium antibodies. In the evaluation of cross-reactivity of these egg yolk antibodies to various Salmonella serovars, we observed that the anti-S. Enteritidis antibodies exhibited more specific affinity than those of the anti-S. Typhimurium antibodies. All S. Enteritidis strains reacted specifically with the anti-S. Enteritidis fimbrial and flagellar egg yolk antibody whereas anti-S. Enteritidis LPS and anti-S. Typhimurium LPS, OMP and flagellar antibodies displayed non-specific reactivity to all Salmonella serovars used in this study. This finding suggests that it may be possible to design a anti-fimbrial egg yolk antibody of S. Enteritidis as a diagnostic tool and a cocktail of OMP and LPS antigens of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium could be used for administering broad spectrum passive immunity to protect against the colonization of pathogenic Salmonella strains in food animals.     

Review of Pesticide Retention Processes Occurring in Buffer Strips Receiving Agricultural Runoff1

Arora, Kapil, Steven K. Mickelson, Matthew J. Helmers, and James L. Baker, 2010. Review of Pesticide Retention Processes Occurring in Buffer Strips Receiving Agricultural Runoff. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):618-647. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00438.x Abstract: Review of the published results shows that the retention of the two pesticide carrier phases (runoff volume and sediment mass) influences pesticide mass transport through buffer strips. Data averaged across different studies showed that the buffer strips retained 45% of runoff volume (ranging between 0 and 100%) and 76% of sediment mass (ranging between 2 and 100%). Sorption (soil sorption coefficient, K_oc) is one key pesticide property affecting its transport with the two carrier phases through buffer strips. Data from different studies for pesticide mass retention for weakly (K_oc < 100), moderately (100 < K_oc < 1,000), and strongly sorbed pesticides (K_oc > 1,000) averaged (with ranges) 61 (0-100), 63 (0-100), and 76 (53-100) %, respectively. Because there are more data for runoff volume and sediment mass retention, the average retentions of both carrier phases were used to calculate that the buffer strips would retain 45% of weakly to moderately sorbed and 70% of strongly sorbed pesticides on an average basis. As pesticide mass retention presented is only an average across several studies with different experimental setups, the application of these results to actual field conditions should be carefully examined.     

In situ experimental study of carbon monoxide generation by gasoline-powered electric generator in an enclosed space

On the basis of currently available data, approximately 97% of generator-related carbon monoxide (CO) fatalities are caused by operating currently marketed, carbureted spark-ignited gasoline-powered generators (not equipped with emission controls) in enclosed spaces. To better understand and to reduce the occurrence of these fatalities, research is needed to quantify CO generation rates, develop and test CO emission control devices, and evaluate CO transport and exposure when operating a generator in an enclosed space. As a first step in these efforts, this paper presents measured CO generation rates from a generator without any emission control devices operating in an enclosed space under real weather conditions. This study expands on previously published information from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Thirteen separate tests were conducted under different weather conditions at half and full generator load settings. It was found that the CO level in the shed reached a maximum value of 29,300 +/- 580 mg/m3, whereas the oxygen (O2) was depleted to a minimum level of 16.2 +/- 0.02% by volume. For the test conditions of real weather and generator operation, the CO generation and the O2 consumption could be expressed as time-averaged generation/consumption rates. It was also found that the CO generation and O2 consumption rates can be correlated to the O2 levels in the space and the actual load output from the generator. These correlations are shown to agree well with the measurements.     

WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions

This study develops fine temporal (seasonal, day-of-week, diurnal) and vertical allocations of anthropogenic emissions for the TRACE-P inventory and evaluates their impacts on the East Asian air quality prediction using WRF-Chem simulations in July 2001 at 30-km grid spacing against available surface measurements from EANET and NEMCC. For NO₂ and SO₂, the diurnal and vertical redistributions of emissions play essential roles, while the day-of-week variation is less important. When all incorporated, WRF-Chem best simulates observations of surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations, while using the default emissions produces the worst result. The sensitivity is especially large over major cities and industrial areas, where surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations are reduced by respectively 3–7 and 6–12 ppbv when using the scaled emissions. The incorporation of all the three redistributions of emissions simulates surface O₃ concentrations higher by 4–8 ppbv at night and 2–4 ppbv in daytime over broad areas of northern, eastern and central China. To this sensitivity, the diurnal redistribution contributes more than the other two.