Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Predictors of food-related aggression in wild Assamese macaques and the role of conflict avoidance

The quality, availability and distribution of food resources and their influence on types and levels of feeding competition play a central role in ecological models of female social structure in mammals. Here, we investigate the impact of social and ecological factors on rates of food-related aggression and the use of potential conflict avoidance mechanisms in wild Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis) in northeastern Thailand. These questions were addressed by examining feeding competition at the level of individual food patches which provides detailed information on resource characteristics, aggression and feeding party composition. Results suggest that the frequency of aggression in food patches increases with increasing feeding group size and decreasing patch size but is not affected by ecological variables representing resource value (abundance and nutritional value of food items in a patch). Interestingly, females appear to employ several mechanisms to avoid direct conflicts, including the use of alternative feeding sites within food patches, delayed arrival at feeding sites, storing food in cheek pouches and co-feeding with individuals they share strong social bonds with. Conflict avoidance may be partially responsible for the absence of a rank-related skew in female energy intake in this population and may explain other cases where empirical data do not fit the predictions of socio-ecological theory. Our findings also inform the debate about the mechanisms generating fitness benefits from strong social bonds by suggesting that by increasing feeding tolerance, social bonds may enhance resource acquisition, reduce the risk of injuries and lower levels of agonism-related stress.     

Dominance rank,female reproductive synchrony,and male reproductive skew in wild Assamese macaques

In groups with multiple males, direct mate competition may select for the evolution of dominance hierarchies that sort males into a queue for access to fertile females. The priority-of-access (PoA) model proposed by Altmann in 1962 makes explicit predictions about the resulting paternity distribution based on an interaction between male dominance rank and the overlap of female receptive phases. Here, we investigated whether the logic of the PoA model predicted the distribution of paternity across ranks in a seasonal breeder with high reproductive synchrony over six consecutive mating seasons. We studied 18 males that resided in a group of wild Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis) in their natural habitat at Phu Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, between 2006 and 2011 with 5 to 13 conceptions per season. We assessed whether mate guarding increased paternity success, described “short-term” deviations from predicted paternity distribution, and examined how these are related to the number of competitors and fertile females. We determined genetic paternity of 43 (93 %) offspring born into the study group and found reproductive skew to be relatively low with 29 % alpha male paternity in accordance with the high degree of female reproductive synchrony observed. Short-term deviations from expected paternity distribution over ranks were not explained by the number of resident males or the number of conceiving females or their interaction. Within the limits of this study, these results suggest that even if males cannot discern female fertile phases, if reproduction is seasonal, and if reproductive synchrony is high, males may also compete directly over access to females.     

Ecosystem network analysis indicators are generally robust to parameter uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Understanding how data uncertainty influences ecosystem analysis is critical as we move toward ecosystem-based management. Here, we investigate how 18 Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indicators that characterize ecosystem growth, development, and condition are affected by uncertainty in an ecosystem model of Lake Sidney Lanier (USA). We applied ENA to 122 plausible parameterizations of the ecosystem developed by Borrett and Osidele (2007, Ecological Modelling 200, 371-387), and then used the coefficient of variation (CV) to compare system indicator variability. We considered Total System Throughput (TST) as a measure of the underlying model uncertainty and tested three hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that non-ratio indicators whose calculation includes the TST would be at least as variable as TST if not more variable. Second, we postulated that indicators calculated as ratios, with TST in the numerator and denominator would tend to be less variable than TST because its influence will cancel. Last, we expected the Average Mutual Information (AMI) to be less variable than TST because it is a bounded function. Our work shows that the 18 indicators grouped into four categories. The first group has significantly larger CVs than the CV for TST. In this group, model uncertainty is amplified rendering these three indicators less useful. The second group of four indicators shows no significant difference in variability with respect to TST. Finally, there are two groups whose CV values are significantly lower than that for TST. The least variable group includes the ratio-based indicators and Average Mutual Information. Due to their low variability, we conclude that these indicators are the most robust to the parameter uncertainty and most useful for ecosystem assessment and comparative ecosystem analysis. In summary, this work suggests that we can be as certain, or more certain, in most of the selected ENA indicators as we are in the parameters of the model analyzed.     

Human dietary intake and excretion of dioxin-like compounds

Human dietary intake and excretion of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and biphenyls (PCBs)--collectively referred to as dioxin-like compounds (DLCs)--were investigated. Two groups of seven subjects were studied during 1999 and 2000: one aged 23.9 +/- 4.5 years, the other aged 49.4 +/- 5.2 years. For each subject, two week-long experiments were held. In one, omnivorous diets were administered, whilst in the other, a vegan diet was studied. While exposures via the omnivorous diets exceeded those via the vegan diet on a sigmaWHO-TEQ basis; for some subjects sigmaPCB exposures were comparable in both diets, implying that plant-based foods can make an appreciable contribution to exposure to sigmaPCB. For all subjects, the average dietary exposure during the omnivorous trial to PCDD/Fs and PCBs combined (expressed as WHO-TEQ) was--at 1.09 pg kg(-1) bw d(-1)--lower than recent UK "food-basket" estimates. For the same diet, the average sigmaPCB exposure for all subjects was--at 5.01 microg person(-1) d(-1)--higher than recent UK "food-basket" estimates, but consistent with recent estimates for other industrialised countries. Net absorption/excretion but not faecal excretion rates of DLCs were related to dietary intakes. Furthermore, excretion rates of the most persistent DLCs--i.e. PCB #s 138, 153, and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD--were statistically significantly greater for the older subjects. Combined, these data imply that excretion rate is dependent on body burden, and that the majority of DLCs in human faeces arise from endogenous excretion.     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout,II. Rainout experiments

This paper describes the results of the first experimental stage of Phase IV of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of this stage of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing water and xylene experiments. See the overview companion paper I for a wider overview of the problem, model implementation and associated model validation.A range of orifice sizes (2.5 and 5 mm) and stagnation pressures (4–16 barg) were applied. Measurements included flow rate, initial droplet size, plume concentrations/temperatures for a range of downstream locations, and distributed rainout.Instead of the Phase Doppler Anemometry method used for droplet size measurements earlier in the JIP, a photographic technique was applied in an attempt to include measurement of the larger (non-spherical) droplets. This enabled a more accurate evaluation of the initial droplet size distribution and a much clearer understanding of the droplet morphology. The results showed that the droplet behaviour in the jet is more complex than had been anticipated with the mass distribution dominated by a very small number of large non-spherical droplets. Consequently a large number of spray images were required to evaluate an accurate size distribution.Distributed rainout was measured by weighing the amount of rainout in trays positioned along the jet direction. The rainout results showed a good degree of repeatability and internal consistency. They indicated that an increasing proportion of the released material did not rainout for increasing pressure. Rainout distance also increased with increasing pressure. Evaporation of the liquid was confirmed by temperature measurements, which showed the effect of evaporative cooling.Xylene concentration measurements (up to 1%) were carried out using a direct reading photoionization detector calibrated for xylene (measuring vapour only). For a limited dataset, the accuracy of these measurements was estimated by means of comparison against an alternative more time-consuming concentration method (xylene absorption onto a charcoal filter; measuring both vapour and liquid). The concentration measurements displayed several consistent qualitative features. For example, at a given downstream distance, the peak concentration increases with increasing pressure and nozzle diameter and the vertical height at which the peak is achieved increases. The cross-stream profiles displayed a consistent tendency to increased concentration at the edge of the jet, and the reason for this has not been established.Finally recommendations are provided for potential future work.     

The Myth of Efficiency: Technology and Ethics in Industrial Food Production

In this paper, we explore how the application of technological tools has reshaped food production systems in ways that foster large-scale outbreaks of foodborne illness. Outbreaks of foodborne illness have received increasing attention in recent years, resulting in a growing awareness of the negative impacts associated with industrial food production. These trends indicate a need to examine systemic causes of outbreaks and how they are being addressed. In this paper, we analyze outbreaks linked to ground beef and salad greens. These case studies are informed by personal interviews, site visits, and an extensive review of government documents and peer-reviewed literature. To explore these cases, we draw from actor-network theory and political economy to analyze the relationships between technological tools, the design of industrial production systems, and the emergence and spread of pathogenic bacteria. We also examine if current responses to outbreaks represent reflexive change. Lastly, we use the myth of Prometheus to discuss ethical issues regarding the use of technology in food production. Our findings indicate that current tools and systems were designed with a narrow focus on economic efficiency, while overlooking relationships with pathogenic bacteria and negative social impacts. In addition, we find that current responses to outbreaks do not represent reflexive change and a continued reliance on technological fixes to systemic problems may result in greater problems in the future. We argue that much can be learned from the myth of Prometheus. In particular, justice and reverence need to play a more significant role in guiding production decisions.     

Mantophasmatodea now in the Jurassic

The Mantophasmatodea is the most recently discovered insect order. The fossil records of all other ‘polyneopteran’ orders extend far in the past, but the current absence of pre-Cenozoic fossils of the Mantophasmatodea contradicts a long evolutionary history, which has to be assumed from the morphological distinctness of the group. In this paper, we report the first Mesozoic evidence of a mantophasmatodean from the Middle Jurassic of Daohugou, Inner Mongolia, China. Furthermore, the new fossil shares apomorphic characters with Cenozoic and recent Mantophasmatodea, suggesting a longer evolutionary history of this order.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers in domestic indoor dust from Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States

Because of the similarities in European and North American dietary exposure, it has been suggested that the order of magnitude higher body burdens in North Americans may be due to international variations in exposure via ingestion of indoor dust. Furthermore, ingestion of indoor dust has been suggested as a possible source of PBDEs in the blood serum of New Zealanders. Hence, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in domestic indoor dust from: Amarillo/Austin, Texas, US; Birmingham, UK; Toronto, Canada; and Wellington, New Zealand. Concentrations of BDE 209 in two UK samples were - at 520,000 and 100,000 ng g(-1) - the highest ever recorded in a domestic (or office) indoor dust sample. Median concentrations in ng g(-1) were: in Canada 620 and 560 for Sigmatri-hexa-BDEs and BDE 209 respectively; in New Zealand 96, BDE 209 not determined; in the UK 59 and 2,800; and in the US 1600 and 1300. With respect to BDE 209, concentrations were in the order: UK approximately US>Canada. For Sigmatri-hexa-BDEs, the order of concentrations was US approximately Canada>New Zealand approximately UK. Combined with principal component analysis of congener patterns, this suggests that, while North American dusts are contaminated by both Deca- and Penta-BDE commercial formulations, UK dusts are contaminated predominantly by Deca-BDE. The Octa-BDE formulation appears of minimal importance in accordance with available market demand figures. Despite the commercial formulations of PBDEs never having been manufactured in, nor imported into New Zealand, their presence in dusts from that country suggests international trade in PBDE-containing goods is an important pathway effecting their global distribution.