The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Low aggression levels and unbiased sex ratios in a prey-rich environment: no evidence of siblicide in Ngorongoro spotted hyenas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crocuta crocuta</Emphasis>)

Avian models of facultative siblicide predict that rates of sibling aggression and the incidence of siblicide should be lower in prey-rich than prey-poor environments, and that siblicide should only occur when fitness benefits outweigh costs. We tested these predictions by comparing data from spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) twin litters in the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, a habitat with a high density of resident prey (176 animals/km²) with similar data from the adjacent Serengeti National Park where density of resident prey is low (3.3 animals/km²). As predicted, rates of sibling aggression in Crater twin litters were substantially lower than those among twin siblings in the Serengeti. There was no evidence of siblicide in the Crater, in contrast to the Serengeti, where facultative siblicide occurs frequently. The growth rate of Crater cubs in singleton litters was similar to that of cubs in twin litters, whereas the growth rate of Serengeti singletons was higher than that of cubs in twin litters. Thus despotic behavior by dominant Crater cubs was unlikely to provide fitness benefits, while dominant Serengeti cubs that eliminated their sibling benefited from increased growth and enhanced survival. Previous studies have demonstrated biases in the sex-composition of hyena litters due to facultative siblicide. No such biases were apparent in Crater litters. Our results provide strong evidence that levels of sibling aggression in spotted hyenas are adjusted in an adaptive manner, and that siblicide is facultative and resource dependent. Our results do not support the idea of pre-natal manipulation of offspring sex by female spotted hyenas in response to changes in resource abundance.     

Persistent organic pollutants in mangrove food webs in Singapore

In this study, persistent organic pollutants were quantified in sediments, subsurface seawater, sea-surface microlayer and twenty-four biota species collected at two separate mangrove habitats in Singapore. Data confirmed the ubiquity of POPs, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), in the marine environment of Singapore. A biomagnification phenomenon was observed amongst the species collected and analysed from both mangrove sites studied. Thunder crabs and fish displayed the highest POP levels. Congener profiles of PBDEs varied amongst mangrove biota species and suggested different metabolic pathways exist for flame retardants. Similarly, crab species showed an ability to metabolize chlordane insecticide.     

Organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Singapore's coastal marine sediments

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are ubiquitous pollutants in the marine environment, particular in coastal areas affected by industry and shipping traffic. POPs are known for their recalcitrance and toxicity in the environment, and there is increasing concern over their global distribution and impact upon wildlife. Marine surface sediment samples taken within 6 km of the coastline of Singapore were analyzed to determine prevailing concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Total PCB concentrations varied widely from 1.4 to 329.6 ng/g (average 73.9 ng/g), where high concentrations were detected at sample locations closest to industrial areas with intensive shipping traffic. Total DDT concentrations ranged from 2.2 to 11.9 ng/g (average 6.7 ng/g) and were lower than the concentration range of 3.3-46.2 ng/g measured for total HCH (average 18.1 ng/g). Ratios of DDT/(DDE+DDD) in sediments do not indicate recent inputs of DDT into Singapore's marine environment, but high concentrations of alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH show evidence for the usage of HCHs in Southeast Asia. Peak concentrations of cis- and trans-Chlordane were 10 ng/g. Among the PBDE congeners BDE 47, 99, and 100 only BDE 47 could be detected at a range of 3.4-13.8 ng/g (average 6.2 ng/g). The levels of OCPs, PCBs and PBDEs were compared to available data for other countries in Asia, and indicated relatively moderate levels of contamination. Peak concentrations of PCBs, HCH isomers, Chlordane, Heptachlor, Heptachlor epoxide and Dieldrin have the potential to induce ecotoxicological impacts based on levels specified in the sediment quality standards of the USEPA and Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment.     

Processes controlling metal transport and retention as metal-contaminated groundwaters efflux through estuarine sediments

Factors affecting the transport and retention of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in acidic groundwaters as they pass through estuarine sediments were investigated using column experiments. Acidic groundwaters caused the rapid dissolution of iron sulfide (AVS) and other iron and manganese phases from sediments that are important for metal binding and buffering. Metal breakthrough to overlying water occurred in the order of Ni>Zn>Cd>Cu>Cr/Pb. Metal transport increased as the sediment permeability increased, reflecting the low resistance to flow caused by larger sand-sized particles and the decreased abundance of metal adsorption sites on these materials. Metal mobility increased as the groundwater pH decreased, as flow rate or metal concentrations increased, and as the exposure duration increased. Groundwater Cr and Pb were promptly attenuated by the sediments, the mobility of Cu was low and decreased rapidly as sediment pH increased above 4.5, while Cd, Ni and Zn were the most easily transported to the surface sediments and released to the overlying waters. For groundwaters of pH 3, metal migration velocities through sandy sediments were generally 0.5-2% (Cr, Pb), 1-6% (Cu) and 4-13% (Cd, Ni, Zn) of the total groundwater velocity (9-700 m/yr). The oxidative precipitation of Fe(II) and Mn(II) in the groundwaters did not affect metal mobility through the sediments. The results indicated that the efflux of acidic and metal-contaminated groundwater through estuarine sediments would affect organisms resident in sandy sediments more greatly than organisms resident in fine-grained, silty, sediments.     

An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments

The model system CemoS¹ (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming. e-mail: cemos@aphrodite.mathematik.uni-osnabrueck.de     

Semicontinuous PM2.5 sulfate and nitrate measurements at an urban and a rural location in New York: PMTACS-NY summer 2001 and 2002 campaigns

Several collocated semicontinuous instruments measuring particulate matter with particle sizes < or =2.5 microm (PM2.5) sulfate (SO4(2-)) and nitrate (NO3-) were intercompared during two intensive field campaigns as part of the PM2.5 Technology Assessment and Characterization Study. The summer 2001 urban campaign in Queens, NY, and the summer 2002 rural campaign in upstate New York (Whiteface Mountain) hosted an operation of an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, Ambient Particulate Sulfate and Nitrate Monitors, a Continuous Ambient Sulfate Monitor, and a Particle-Into-Liquid Sampler with Ion Chromatographs (PILS-IC). These instruments provided near real-time particulate SO4(2-) and NO3- mass concentration data, allowing the study of particulate SO4(2-)/NO3- diurnal patterns and detection of short-term events. Typical particulate SO4(2-) concentrations were comparable at both sites (ranging from 0 to 20 microg/m3), while ambient urban particulate NO3- concentrations ranged from 0 to 11 microg/m3 and rural NO3- concentration was typically less than 1 microg/m3. Results of the intercomparisons of the semicontinuous measurements are presented, as are results of the comparisons between the semicontinuous and time-integrated filter-based measurements. The comparisons at both sites, in most cases, indicated similar performance characteristics. In addition, charge balance calculations, based on major soluble ionic components of atmospheric aerosol from the PILS-IC and the filter measurements, indicated slightly acidic aerosol at both locations.     

Priming effects on PAH degradation and ecotoxicity during a phytoremediation experiment

An experiment was conducted to distinguish priming effects from the effects of phytoremediation of a creosote-polluted soil. The concentration of 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and their combined soil toxicity (using four bioassays), was determined on recently excavated, homogenized soil and on such soil subjected to a time-course phytoremediation experiment with lucerne. The results showed a high priming effect, with minor positive and synergistic effects of planting and fertilization on PAH degradation rates. At the end of the experiment, PAH degradation reached 86% of the initial 519 mg PAHs kg(-1). Two of the four toxicity tests (bioluminescence inhibition and ostracod growth inhibition) corroborated the chemical data for residual PAHs, and indicated a significant reduction in soil toxicity. We conclude that priming effects can easily surpass treatment effects, and that an unintentional pre-incubation that ignores these effects can jeopardize the full quantitative assessment of in situ bioremediation of contaminated soil.     

Emissions of organophosphate and brominated flame retardants from selected consumer products and building materials

The emissions of selected flame retardants were measured in 1- and 0.02-m³ emission test chambers and 0.001-m³ emission test cells. Four product groups were of interest: insulating materials, assembly foam, upholstery/mattresses, and electronics equipment. The experiments were performed under constant environmental conditions (23°C, 50% RH) using a fixed sample surface area and controlled air flow rates. Tris (2-chloro-isopropyl)phosphate (TCPP) was observed to be one of the most commonly emitted organophosphate flame retardants in polyurethane foam applications. Depending on the sample type, area-specific emission rates (SER_a) of TCPP varied between 20 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ and 140 μg m⁻² h⁻¹.The emissions from electronic devices were measured at 60°C to simulate operating conditions. Under these conditions, unit specific emission rates (SER_u) of organophosphates were determined to be 10–85 ng unit⁻¹ h⁻¹. Increasing the temperature increased the emission of several flame retardants by up to a factor of 500. The results presented in this paper indicate that emissions of several brominated and organophosphate flame retardants are measurable. Polybrominated diphenylethers exhibited an SER_a of between 0.2 and 6.6 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ and an SER_u of between 0.6 and 14.2 ng unit⁻¹ h⁻¹. Because of sink effects, i.e., sorption to chamber components, the emission test chambers and cells used in this study have limited utility for substances low vapour pressures, especially the highly brominated compounds; hexabromocyclododecane had an SER_a of between 0.1 and 29 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ and decabromodiphenylether was not detectable at all.