Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Nutrient leaching in a Colombian savanna Oxisol amended with biochar

Nutrient leaching in highly weathered tropical soils often poses a challenge for crop production. We investigated the effects of applying 20 t ha biochar (BC) to a Colombian savanna Oxisol on soil hydrology and nutrient leaching in field experiments. Measurements were made over the third and fourth years after a single BC application. Nutrient contents in the soil solution were measured under one maize and one soybean crop each year that were routinely fertilized with mineral fertilizers. Leaching by unsaturated water flux was calculated using soil solution sampled with suction cup lysimeters and water flux estimates generated by the model HYDRUS 1-D. No significant difference ( > 0.05) was observed in surface-saturated hydraulic conductivity or soil water retention curves, resulting in no relevant changes in water percolation after BC additions in the studied soils. However, due to differences in soil solution concentrations, leaching of inorganic N, Ca, Mg, and K measured up to a depth of 0.6 m increased ( < 0.05), whereas P leaching decreased, and leaching of all nutrients (except P) at a depth of 1.2 m was significantly reduced with BC application. Changes in leaching at 2.0 m depth with BC additions were about one order of magnitude lower than at other depths, except for P. Biochar applications increased soil solution concentrations and downward movement of nutrients in the root zone and decreased leaching of Ca, Mg, and Sr at 1.2 m, possibly by a combination of retention and crop nutrient uptake.     

Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.     

Enzyme-based resource allocated decomposition and landscape heterogeneity in the Florida Everglades

Enzyme catalyzed reactions are generally considered the rate-limiting step in organic matter degradation and may be significantly influenced by the structure and composition of plant communities. Changes in these rates have the potential to effect long-term peat accumulation and influence the topography of a wetland ecosystem. To determine habitat influences on enzyme activities, we examined slough and sawgrass plots within enriched and reference phosphorus (P) sites in the Everglades. Assays were performed for the enzymes involved in carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and P cycling and lignin depolymerization. Enzyme activities were normalized and analyzed in terms of a resource allocation strategy. Plant composition was found to significantly alter the allocation of enzymatic resources due to varying substrate complexities. Potential decomposition in the slough was less influenced by lignin than in the sawgrass habitats. Additionally, an index relating hydrolytic and oxidative enzymes was significantly greater in the slough habitats, whereas C/N ratios were significantly lower. These indices suggest more favorable decomposition conditions and thus slower peat accretion within the slough communities, which may contribute to the development of elevation differences within the sawgrass ridge and slough topography of the Everglades.     

Importance of public information and perception for managing recreational activities in the Peel-Harvey estuary, Western Australia

Surveys of water recreational activities were conducted in the Peel-Harvey estuary. Channels used by recreationists to gain information about water quality, the perception of water quality and resulting behaviour were investigated. This study showed that personal perception, local knowledge and history, absence of warnings and residency were major factors contributing to risk perception and behaviour in this recreational community. Management strategies should take this information into account to achieve maximal outcomes.     

The Contribution of Marsh Zones to Water Quality in Dutch Shallow Lakes: A Modeling Study

Many lakes have experienced a transition from a clear into a turbid state without macrophyte growth due to eutrophication. There are several measures by which nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in the surface water can be reduced. We used the shallow lake model PCLake to evaluate the effects of three measures (reducing external nutrient loading, increasing relative marsh area, and increasing exchange rate between open water and marsh) on water quality improvement. Furthermore, the contribution of different retention processes was calculated. Settling and burial contributed more to nutrient retention than denitrification. The model runs for a typical shallow lake in The Netherlands showed that after increasing relative marsh area to 50%, total phosphorous (TP) concentration in the surface water was lower than the Maximum Admissible Risk (MAR, a Dutch government water quality standard) level, in contrast to total nitrogen (TN) concentration. The MAR levels could also be achieved by reducing N and P load. However, reduction of nutrient concentrations to MAR levels did not result in a clear lake state with submerged vegetation. Only a combination of a more drastic reduction of the present nutrient loading, in combination with a relatively large marsh cover (approximately 50%) would lead to such a clear state. We therefore concluded that littoral marsh areas can make a small but significant contribution to lake recovery.     

Assessment of the Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach: Case studies from Malawi and Uganda

This paper presents lessons from applying an innovative action research approach for linking smallholder farmers to markets, in eastern and southern Africa. The Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach aims to strengthen social organization and entrepreneurial capacity in rural communities. It focuses on fostering community‐based capacity for the inclusion of rural women and the poor in analyzing and accessing market opportunities. Using case studies from Malawi and Uganda the paper assesses the outcomes of ERI on rural communities with a focus on human capital, gender issues and investment in natural resource management. Results show that households are benefiting significantly from linkages to markets in terms of increasing household incomes, and accumulating assets. Skills in analyzing markets and in negotiating with traders have increased among smallholder farmers. The integration of gender in the approach has led to changes in gender decision making patterns at household and community level towards a more shared decision‐making process. The results however show a difference in skills between men and women, with women showing lower levels of skills acquisition. Farmer participatory research has increased investments in improved technologies such as fertilizer applications for soil fertility management.     

Biodegradability and toxicity assessment of trans-chlordane photochemical treatment

The removal of trans-chlordane (C(10)H(6)Cl(8)) from aqueous solutions was studied using UV, UV/H(2)O(2), UV/H(2)O(2)/Fe(2+), UV/TiO(2), or UV/TiO(2)/H(2)O(2) treatment using either UV/Vis blue lamps or UVC lamps (254 nm). H(2)O(2), FeSO(4) and TiO(2) were added at 1700, 456, and 2500 mgL(-1), respectively. trans-Chlordane was not significantly removed in non-irradiated controls and in samples irradiated with UV/Vis. It was also not removed in the absence of surfactant Triton X-114 added at 250 mgL(-1). In the presence of the surfactant, trans-chlordane concentration was reduced by 95-100% after 48 h of UVC and UVC/H(2)O(2) treatments and 70-80% after UVC/H(2)O(2)/Fe(2+), UVC/TiO(2) and UVC/H(2)O(2)/TiO(2) treatments. Based on these results, UVC, UVC/H(2)O(2) and UVC/TiO(2) treatments were further investigated. UVC treatment supported the highest pollutant removal (100% in 48 h), dechlorination efficiency (81% in 48 h), and detoxification to Lepidium sativum seed germination and activated sludge respiration although irradiated samples remained toxic to Chlorella vulgaris. Biodegradation of the UVC irradiated samples removed the source of algae toxicity but this could not be clearly attributed to the removal of trans-chlordane photoproducts because the surfactant interfered with the chemical and biological assays. Evidence was found that trans-chlordane was photodegraded through photolysis causing its successive dechlorination. trans-Chlordane removal was well described by a first order kinetic model at a rate of 0.21±0.01h(-1) at the 95% confidence interval.