Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes

Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.     

Modeling urban films using a dynamic multimedia fugacity model

A thin film coats impervious urban surfaces that can act as a source or sink of organic pollutants to the greater environment. We review recent developments in the understanding of film and film-associated pollutant behavior and incorporate them into an unsteady-state version of the fugacity based Multimedia Urban Model (MUM), focusing on detailed considerations of surface film dynamics. The model is used to explore the conditions under which these atmospherically-derived films act as a temporary source of chemicals to the air and/or storm water. Assuming film growth of 2.1 nm d⁻¹ (Wu et al., 2008a), PCB congeners 28 and 180 reach air-film equilibrium within hours and days, respectively. The model results suggest that the film acts as a temporary sink of chemicals from air during dry and cool weather, as a source to air in warmer weather, and as a source to storm water and soil during rain events. Using the downtown area of the City of Toronto Canada, as a case study, the model estimates that nearly 1 g d⁻¹ of ∑₅PCBs are transferred from air to film to storm water.     

Factors diminishing the effectiveness of phosphorus loading from municipal effluent: critical information for TMDL analyses

Factors that diminish the effectiveness of phosphorus inputs from a municipal wastewater treatment facility (Metro) in contributing to phosphorus levels and its availability to support algae growth in a culturally eutrophic urban lake (Onondaga Lake, NY) were characterized and quantified. These factors included the bioavailability and settling characteristics of particulate phosphorus from this effluent, the dominant form (70%) of phosphorus in this input, and the plunging of the discharge to stratified layers in the lake. Supporting studies included: (1) chemical and morphometric characterization of the phosphorus-enriched particles of this effluent, compared to particle populations of the tributaries and lake, with an individual particle analysis technique; (2) conduct of algal bioavailability assays of the particulate phosphorus of the effluent; (3) conduct of multiple size class settling velocity measurements on effluent particles; and (4) determinations of the propensity of the discharge to plunge, and documentation of plunging through three-dimensional monitoring of a tracer adjoining the outfall. All of these diminishing effects were found to be operative for the Metro effluent in Onondaga Lake and will be integrated into a forthcoming phosphorus "total maximum daily load" analysis for the lake, through appropriate representation in a supporting mechanistic water quality model. The particulate phosphorus in the effluent was associated entirely with Fe-rich particles formed in the phosphorus treatment process. These particles did not contribute to concentrations in pelagic portions of the lake, due to local deposition associated with their large size. Moreover, this particulate phosphorus was found to be nearly entirely unavailable to support algae growth. While substantial differences are to be expected for various inputs, the effective loading concept and the approaches adopted here to assess the diminishing factors are broadly applicable.     

Influence of regional development policies and clean technology adoption on future air pollution exposure

Future air pollution emissions in the year 2030 were estimated for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California using a combined system of land use, mobile, off-road, stationary, area, and biogenic emissions models. Four scenarios were developed that use different assumptions about the density of development and level of investment in transportation infrastructure to accommodate the expected doubling of the SJV population in the next 20 years. Scenario 1 reflects current land-use patterns and infrastructure while scenario 2 encouraged compact urban footprints including redevelopment of existing urban centers and investments in transit. Scenario 3 allowed sprawling development in the SJV with reduced population density in existing urban centers and construction of all planned freeways. Scenario 4 followed currently adopted land use and transportation plans for the SJV. The air quality resulting from these urban development scenarios was evaluated using meteorology from a winter stagnation event that occurred on December 15th, 2000 to January 7th 2001. Predicted base-case PM2.5 mass concentrations within the region exceeded 35 μg m^?3 over the 22-day episode. Compact growth reduced the PM2.5 concentrations by ～1 μg m^?3 relative to the base-case over most of the SJV with the exception of increases (～1 μg m^?3) in urban centers driven by increased concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Low-density development increased the PM2.5 concentrations by 1–4 μg m^?3 over most of the region, with decreases (0.5–2 μg m^?3) around urban areas. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were very similar for all development scenarios ranging between 16 and 17.4 μg m^?3. Exposure to primary PM components such as EC and OC increased 10–15% for high density development scenarios and decreased by 11–19% for low-density scenarios. Patterns for secondary PM components such as nitrate and ammonium ion were almost exactly reversed, with a 10% increase under low-density development and a 5% decrease under high density development. The increased human exposure to primary pollutants such as EC and OC could be predicted using a simplified analysis of population-weighted primary emissions. Regional planning agencies should develop thresholds of population-weighted primary emissions exposure to guide the development of growth plans. This metric will allow them to actively reduce the potential negative impacts of compact growth while preserving the benefits.     

Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine,Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest1

Merten, Eric C., Nathaniel A. Hemstad, Randall K. Kolka, Raymond M. Newman, Elon S. Verry, and Bruce Vondracek, 2010. Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine, Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 733-743. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00445.x Abstract: We investigated the recovery of sediment characteristics in four moraine, headwater streams in north-central Minnesota after forest harvest. We examined changes in fine sediment levels from 1997 (preharvest) to 2007 (10 years postharvest) at study plots with upland clear felling and riparian thinning, using canopy cover, proportion of unstable banks, surficial fine substrates, residual pool depth, and streambed depth of refusal as response variables. Basin-scale year effects were significant (p < 0.001) for all responses when evaluated by repeated-measures ANOVAs. Throughout the study area, unstable banks increased for several years postharvest, coinciding with an increase in windthrow and fine sediment. Increased unstable banks may have been caused by forest harvest equipment, increased windthrow and exposure of rootwads, or increased discharge and bank scour. Fine sediment in the channels did not recover by summer 2007, even though canopy cover and unstable banks had returned to 1997 levels. After several storm events in fall 2007, 10 years after the initial sediment input, fine sediment was flushed from the channels and returned to 1997 levels. Although our study design did not discern the source of the initial sediment inputs (e.g., forest harvest, road crossings, other natural causes), we have shown that moraine, headwater streams can require an extended period (up to 10 years) and enabling event (e.g., high storm flows) to recover from large inputs of fine sediment.     

Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.     

The Analysis of Airborne Sulfate

This report reviews the current state of analytical methodology for sulfate in airborne particles. Methods for determination of total aerosol sulfate and total soluble sulfate are assessed. A more detailed review of the relatively new techniques for quantitative speciation of airborne sulfate then follows. Size distribution methodology and filter sampling difficulties relating to the collection of airborne sulfate-containing particles are enumerated. Experiments are suggested which use new, improved, and potentially applicable sulfate speciation techniques to obtain a better understanding of the generation, transport, transformation and removal processes that, in turn, determine the identity and concentrations of sulfate species in ambient air.     

Review on the use of enzymes for the detection of organochlorine, organophosphate and carbamate pesticides in the environment

Pesticides are released intentionally into the environment and, through various processes, contaminate the environment. Three of the main classes of pesticides that pose a serious problem are organochlorines, organophosphates and carbamates. While pesticides are associated with many health effects, there is a lack of monitoring data on these contaminants. Traditional chromatographic methods are effective for the analysis of pesticides in the environment, but have limitations and prevent adequate monitoring. Enzymatic methods have been promoted for many years as an alternative method of detection of these pesticides. The main enzymes that have been utilised in this regard have been acetylcholinesterase, butyrylcholinesterase, alkaline phosphatase, organophosphorus hydrolase and tyrosinase. The enzymatic methods are based on the activation or inhibition of the enzyme by a pesticide which is proportional to the concentration of the pesticide. Research on enzymatic methods of detection, as well as some of the problems and challenges associated with these methods, is extensively discussed in this review. These methods can serve as a tool for screening large samples which can be followed up with the more traditional chromatographic methods of analysis.     

Reducing phosphorus flux from organic soils in surface flow treatment wetlands

Treatment wetlands have a finite period of effective nutrient removal after which treatment efficiency declines. This is due to the accumulation of organic matter which decreases the capacity and hydraulic retention time of the wetland. We investigated four potential solutions to improve the soluble reactive P (SRP) removal of a municipal wastewater treatment wetland soil including; dry down, surface additions of alum or calcium carbonate and physical removal of the accreted organic soil under both aerobic and anaerobic water column conditions. The flux of SRP from the soil to the water column under aerobic conditions was higher for the continuously flooded controls (1.1 ± 0.4 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹), dry down (1.5 ± 0.9 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹) and CaCO₃ (0.8 ± 0.7 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹) treatments while the soil removal and alum treatments were significantly lower at 0.02 ± 0.10 and −0.07 ± 0.02 mg P m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively. These results demonstrate that the two most effective management strategies at sequestering SRP were organic soil removal and alum additions. There are difficulties and costs associated with removal and disposal of soils from a treatment wetland. Therefore our findings suggest that alum addition may be the most cost effective and efficient means of increasing the sequestering of P in aging treatment wetlands experiencing reduced P removal rates. However, more research is needed to determine the longer term effects of alum buildup in the organic soil on the wetland biota, in particular, on the macrophytes and invertebrates. Since alum effectiveness is time limited, a longer term solution to P flux may favor the organic soil removal.