A novel statistical method for classifying habitat generalists and specialists

We develop a novel statistical approach for classifying generalists and specialists in two distinct habitats. Using a multinomial model based on estimated species relative abundance in two habitats, our method minimizes bias due to differences in sampling intensities between two habitat types as well as bias due to insufficient sampling within each habitat. The method permits a robust statistical classification of habitat specialists and generalists, without excluding rare species a priori. Based on a user-defined specialization threshold, the model classifies species into one of four groups: (1) generalist; (2) habitat A specialist; (3) habitat B specialist; and (4) too rare to classify with confidence. We illustrate our multinomial classification method using two contrasting data sets: (1) bird abundance in woodland and heath habitats in southeastern Australia and (2) tree abundance in second-growth (SG) and old-growth (OG) rain forests in the Caribbean lowlands of northeastern Costa Rica. We evaluate the multinomial model in detail for the tree data set. Our results for birds were highly concordant with a previous nonstatistical classification, but our method classified a higher fraction (57.7%) of bird species with statistical confidence. Based on a conservative specialization threshold and adjustment for multiple comparisons, 64.4% of tree species in the full sample were too rare to classify with confidence. Among the species classified, OG specialists constituted the largest class (40.6%), followed by generalist tree species (36.7%) and SG specialists (22.7%). The multinomial model was more sensitive than indicator value analysis or abundance-based phi coefficient indices in detecting habitat specialists and also detects generalists statistically. Classification of specialists and generalists based on rarefied subsamples was highly consistent with classification based on the full sample, even for sampling percentages as low as 20%. Major advantages of the new method are (1) its ability to distinguish habitat generalists (species with no significant habitat affinity) from species that are simply too rare to classify and (2) applicability to a single representative sample or a single pooled set of representative samples from each of two habitat types. The method as currently developed can be applied to no more than two habitats at a time.     

Morphology and distribution of the ampullary electroreceptors in wobbegong sharks: implications for feeding behaviour

The electrosensory capabilities of wobbegong sharks are of particular interest, partly because very little is known about their behavioural ecology and specifically because of their unusual ambush predatory strategy and benthic lifestyle. While several biological functions of electroreception have been proposed, less consideration has been given to the functional significance of interspecific differences in the morphology and topographic distribution of the ampullary organs. The morphology of the ampullary organs was examined in four species of wobbegong shark, and the distribution of electroreceptive pores was mapped in two species. The ampullary systems of wobbegongs are similar in morphology to other marine elasmobranchs. The number of alveoli per ampullae is not significantly different between the four species; however, differences are seen between ampullary cell size in some species. Ampullary pore distribution patterns are relatively unique, with the majority of pores occurring on the dorsal region of the head. Wobbegongs feed primarily on demersal teleost fishes, and as the benthic and well-camouflaged wobbegong remains motionless, these fish could be easily detected by the dorsal pores when swimming within range.     

Status and future of the forest health indicators program of the USA

For two decades, the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, has been charged with implementing a nationwide field-based forest health monitoring effort. Given its extensive nature, the monitoring program has been gradually implemented across forest health indicators and inventoried states. Currently, the Forest Service??s Forest Inventory and Analysis program has initiated forest health inventories in all states, and most forest health indicators are being documented in terms of sampling protocols, data management structures, and estimation procedures. Field data from most sample years and indicators are available on-line with numerous analytical examples published both internally and externally. This investment in national forest health monitoring has begun to yield dividends by allowing evaluation of state/regional forest health issues (e.g., pollution and invasive pests) and contributing substantially to national/international reporting efforts (e.g., National Report on Sustainability and US EPA Annual Greenhouse Gas Estimates). With the emerging threat of climate change, full national implementation and remeasurement of a forest health inventory should allow for more robust assessment of forest communities that are undergoing unprecedented changes, aiding future land management and policy decisions.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.     

Reducing fall risk by improving balance control: development, evaluation and knowledge-translation of new approaches

Problem

Falling is a leading cause of serious injury, loss of independence, and nursing-home admission in older adults. Impaired balance control is a major contributing factor.

Methods

Results from our balance-control studies have been applied in the development of new and improved interventions and assessment tools. Initiatives to facilitate knowledge-translation of this work include setting up a new network of balance clinics, a research-user network and a research-user advisory board.

Results

Our findings support the efficacy of the developed balance-training methods, balance-enhancing footwear, neuro-prosthesis, walker design, handrail-cueing system, and handrail-design recommendations in improving specific aspects of balance control.

Impact on Knowledge Users

A new balance-assessment tool has been implemented in the first new balance clinic, a new balance-enhancing insole is available through pharmacies and other commercial outlets, and handrail design recommendations have been incorporated into 10 Canadian and American building codes. Work in progress is expected to have further impact.     

Creating Pedestrian Crash Scenarios in a Driving Simulator Environment

Objective: In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 NHTSA. Traffic Safety Facts 2012 Pedestrians. Washington, DC: Author; 2014. DOT HS 811 888. [Google Scholar]). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track.

Methods: An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20–30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area.

Results: Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research.

Conclusions: Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).     

Engaging stakeholders in an adaptation process: governance and institutional arrangements in heat-health policy development in Adelaide, Australia

Record breaking heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide, Australia in recent years and climate change would likely increase the frequency, duration and severity of heat waves. This paper describes the governance and institutional arrangements during the development of an adaptation strategy (herein referred to as heat-health policy) for heat waves in Adelaide, Australia. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted between June and August 2011 among 18 stakeholders who were involved in the participatory process during the development of the heat-health policy. Informed consent was obtained and interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim and the data analysed using framework analysis. Interview data were supplemented by data gathered through a review of documents associated with the process. The results found that the process of developing the heat-health policy was initiated by the state government and comprised of stakeholders from both the state and non-state sectors. There was a high level of leadership and political commitment demonstrated during the process, given that the different players wanted a policy to be in place before any future heat wave. A Steering Committee was established that provided coordination and oversight in addition to the Emergency Management Act within the state which provided the legislative framework during the heat-health policy development process. Although the decision-making authority was controlled by a controlled by a public institution, to a larger extent, there was collaborative decision-making by virtue of the context in which the heat-health policy was developed. An assurance mechanism established during the process was among the factors that ensured accountability during the participatory process. Overall, the development of the heat-health policy in Adelaide was largely successful, attributed to the extent of political commitment from the state government and the sound institutional and legislative framework that facilitated the process. Good governance and institutional arrangements provide the enabling environment, the structures, systems and resources that would facilitate the development of adaptation strategies such as heat-health policies.     

Self-Reported Seat Belt Use in Four Countries: A Telephone Survey

A telephone survey was conducted in four countries in November 1998 to compare drivers in the United States with those in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom regarding their attitudes toward seat belts and belt use laws. More than 90 percent of the 2251 respondents said they thought seat belts are effective, but self-reported belt use was significantly lower in the United States than in the other countries. Respondents in Australia and the United Kingdom had similar views about what they thought were important reasons for using seat belts and had the highest self-reported use. Reasons given for using belts by Canadian and US respondents were quite similar to one another, yet US respondents had significantly lower self-reported use rates, a difference thought to be due to vigorous enforcement of the law in Canada. US drivers were less likely than Australian and UK drivers to say they used belts out of habit, to avoid a ticket, or because it is required by law and more likely to say they used belts for situational reasons. US drivers were least likely to be in favor of belt use laws. Canadian drivers reported the most experience being checked by police for belt use and were most likely to think that nonusers would be caught. US drivers in primary enforcement jurisdictions were more likely than those in secondary jurisdictions to think that drivers not using belts would be caught and more likely to say they always used belts. Results of this survey indicate that seat belt use in the United States could be increased by adoption of primary enforcement laws and highly visible enforcement programs of the type used in Canada, and that seat belt use could be increased in all countries by increasing the penalties for nonuse.     

Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.