Modelling spatial and temporal variability in a zero-inflated variable: The case of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) cone production

Modelling masting habit, i.e. the spatial synchronized annual variability in fruit production, is a huge task due to two main circumstances: (1) the identification of main ecological factors controlling fruiting processes, and (2) the common departure of fruit data series from the main basic statistical assumptions of normality and independence. Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) is one of the main species in the Mediterranean basin that is able to grow under hard limiting conditions (sandy soils and extreme continental climate), and typically defined as a masting species. Considering the high economical value associated with edible nut production, the masting habit of stone pine has been a main concern for the forest management of the species. In the present work we have used annual fruit data series from 740 stone pine trees measured during a 13 years period (1996-2008) in order: (a) to verify our main hypothesis pointing out to the existence of a weather control of the fruiting process in limiting environments, rather than resource depletion or endogenous inherent cycles; (b) to identify those site factors, stand attributes and climate events affecting specific traits involved in fruiting process; and (c) to construct a model for predicting spatial and temporal patterns of variability in stone pine cone production at different spatial extents as region, stand and tree. Given the nature of the data, the model has been formulated as zero-inflated log-normal, incorporating random components to carry out with the observed lack of independence. This model attains efficiencies close to 70-80% in predicting temporal and spatial variability at regional scale. Though efficiencies are reduced according to the spatial extent of the model, it leads to unbiased estimates and efficiencies over 35-50% when predicting annual yields at tree or stand scale, respectively. In this sense, the proposed model is a main tool for facilitating decision making in some management aspects such as the quantification of total amount of cones annually supplied to nut industry, design of cone harvest programs or the optimal application of seedling felling.     

Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services

Regional Environmental Change - Mountain forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services (ES, e.g., timber production, protection from natural hazards, maintaining biodiversity) and are...     

Social justice in the context of adaptation to climate change—reflecting on different policy approaches to distribute and allocate flood risk management

Regional Environmental Change -     

Occurrence,spatial distribution,sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls and heavy metals in surface sediments from a large eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chaohu)

Surface sediment from large and eutrophic Lake Chaohu was investigated to determine the occurrence, spatial distribution, sources, and risks of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and heavy metals in one of the five biggest freshwater lakes in China. Total concentration of PCBs (Σ₃₄PCBs) in Lake Chaohu was 672 pg g^?1 dry weight (dw), with a range of 7 to 3999 pg g^?1 dw, which was lower than other water bodies worldwide. The majority of heavy metals were detected at all sampling locations, except for Sr, B, and In. Concentrations of Al, Fe, Ca, Mn, Sr, Co, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Hg were similar to that reported for other lakes globally. Concentrations of K, Mg, Na, Li, Ga, and Ag were greater than the average, whereas those of Cr, Ni, and Cu were lower. Cluster analysis (CA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) yielded accordant results for the source apportionment of PCBs. The technical PCBs and microbial degradation accounted for 34.2 % and 65.8 % of total PCBs using PMF, and PMF revealed that natural and anthropogenic sources of heavy metals accounted for 38.1 % and 61.8 %, respectively. CA indicated that some toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd, In, Tl, and Hg) were associated with Ca–Na–Mg minerals rather than Fe–Mn minerals. The uncorrelated results between organic matter revealed by pyrolysis technology and heavy metals might be caused by the existence of competitive adsorption between organic matter and minerals. PCBs and heavy metals were coupling discharge without organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), but with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). No sediment sample exceeded the toxic threshold for dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) set at 20 pg toxicity equivalency quantity (TEQ)?g^?1, (max dl-PCBs, 10.9 pg TEQ g^?1). However, concentrations of Ag, Cd, and Hg were at levels of environmental concern. The sediment in the drinking water source area (DWSA) was threatened by heavy metals from other areas, and some fundamental solutions were proposed to protect the DWSA.     

Correction to: Allocation of risk and benefits—distributional justices in mountain hazard management

As financing protection against mountain hazards becomes increasingly challenging and therefore investments have to be prioritized, dilemmas of justice emerge: some local governments and individuals benefit from natural hazard protection schemes, whereas others loose. Decisions on whom to protect often caused contradicting concepts of political understanding, which differ in interpretations of fair resource allocation and distribution. This paper analyses the impact of different philosophical schools of social justice on mountain hazard management in Austria. We used data from a spatially explicit, object-based assessment of elements at risk and compared potential distributional effects of three political jurisdictions. We found that—depending on the respective political direction—various local governments gain and others loose within the actual distributional system of mitigation strategies. The implementation of a utilitarian policy approach would cause that high income communities in hazard-prone areas would mainly benefit. Consequently, this policy direction would encourage the public administration to ignore their own failure in the past natural hazards management and prevention. On the other hand, following a Rawlsians approach mainly peripheral communities would gain from new policy direction who often show besides natural hazards problem mainly large socio-economic challenges. Finally, the most radical change would include the implementation of a liberalism policy, whereabouts the state only provides hazard information, but no further mitigation measures. These findings highlight the distributional consequences of future mountain hazard management strategies and point to the crucial selection of policy direction in navigating the selection of various adaptation schemes.

     

A review of recent developments in lake modelling

This paper reviews the lake models published the last five years, mainly in Ecological Modelling. The review shows that structurally dynamic modelling and coupling between hydrodynamic and ecological models are applied increasingly. A number of processes that have not been included in lake models before have been proposed. It has been shown that these additional processes in specific case studies are significant, for instance the competition between phytoplankton and macrophytes or cyanobacteria growth and growth of mussels. It is recommended to study these models for the development of models for case studies where these processes are relevant.     

Geomagnetic field affects spring migratory direction in a long distance migrant

Night-migrating song birds travel to and from their wintering and breeding areas often separated thousands of kilometers apart and are clearly capable of finding intended goal areas from a distant location. Displacement experiments provide a useful way to highlight orientation and navigational skills in migrants. To investigate which cues birds actually use to compensate for displacement and the exact mechanism of each cue, experiments with manipulation of single cues are required. We conducted a simulated displacement of lesser whitethroats Sylvia curruca on spring migration. Birds were displaced not geographically but in geomagnetic space only, north and south of their breeding area to test whether they incorporate information from the geomagnetic field to find their breeding area. Lesser whitethroats held in southeast Sweden but experiencing a simulated displacement north of their breeding area (Norway) failed to show a consistent direction of orientation, whereas birds displaced south of their breeding area (Czech Republic) exhibited consistent northerly orientation, close to the expected seasonally appropriate direction, after displacement toward the trapping location. The absence of a clear compensatory direction in birds displaced north might be due to unfamiliar magnetic information or lack of sufficient information such as a magnetic gradient when moving around. By isolating one orientation cue, the geomagnetic field, we have been able to show that lesser whitethroats might incorporate geomagnetic field information to determine latitude during spring migration.     

Fertilisation, embryogenesis and larval development in the tropical intertidal sand dollar Arachnoides placenta in response to reduced seawater pH

We examined the response of the tropical sand dollar Arachnoides placenta to reduced seawater pH in experiments spanning ca. 50 % of the planktonic larval duration. A. placenta inhabits intertidal sandy beaches where we observed a minimum in situ pH range 0.06 pH units (pH 8.10–8.16). The responses of gametes and larvae to seawater pH were tested in vitro in ambient (pH 8.14, pCO₂ = 525.7 μatm, total alkalinity = 2,651 μmol kg soln^?1) and three reduced pH seawater treatments (7.8–7.0). Percentage fertilisation decreased significantly with decreasing pH across a range of sperm/egg ratios (4:1 up to 4,000:1). A. placenta reached the advanced pluteus stage in 4 days, and during this time, we saw no difference in survival rate of larvae between the ambient (67 %) and pH 7.79 (72 %) treatments. Four-day survival was, however, reduced to 44 and 11 % in the pH 7.65 and 7.12 treatments, respectively. Larval development and morphometrics varied among pH treatments. Embryos reared in pH 7.12 exhibited arrested development. Larvae reared at pH 7.65 showed delayed development and greater mortality compared with those reared at pH 7.79 and 8.14. When larval morphometrics are compared among larvae of the same size, differences in larval width and total arm length between pH treatments disappear. These results suggest that variation in larval size among the three highest pH treatments at a given time are likely the result of slower development and apparent shrinkage of surviving larvae and not direct changes in larval shape. There were no differences in the percentage inorganic content (a proxy for calcification) in larvae reared in either an ambient or a pH 7.7 treatment. The responses of fertilisation and development to decreased pH/increased pCO₂ in A. placenta are within the range of those reported for other intertidal and subtidal echinoid species from colder latitudes.