Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Leaching of cyanogenic glucosides and cyanide from white clover green manure

Use of crops for green manure as a substitute for chemical fertilizers and pesticides is an important approach towards more sustainable agricultural practices. Green manure from white clover is rich in nitrogen but white clover also produces the cyanogenic glucosides (CGs) linamarin and lotaustralin; CGs release toxic hydrogen cyanide (HCN) upon hydrolysis which may be utilized for pest control. We demonstrate that applying CGs in the form of a liquid extract of white clover to large columns of intact agricultural soils can result in leaching of toxic cyanide species to a depth of at least 1m. Although degradation of the CGs during leaching proceeded with half lives in the interval 1.5-35 h depending on soil characteristics, a fraction of the applied CGs (0.9-3.2%) was recovered in the leachate as either CGs or toxic cyanide species. Detoxification of the HCN formed was rapid in soil and leachate from both sandy and loamy soil. However, 30% of the leachate samples exceeded the EU threshold value of 50 micrgl(-1) total cyanide for drinking water and 85% exceeded the US threshold of 5 micrgl(-1) for cyanide chronic ecotoxicity in fresh water. This study demonstrates that even easily degradable natural products present in crop plants as defense compounds pose a threat to the quality of groundwater and surface waters. This aspect needs consideration in assessment of the risk associated with use of crops as green manure to replace chemical fertilizers and pesticides as well as in genetic engineering approaches to design crops with improved pest resistance.     

Particle fluxes above forests: observations, methodological considerations and method comparisons

This paper reports a study designed to test, evaluate and compare micro-meteorological methods for determining the particle number flux above forest canopies. Half-hour average particle number fluxes above a representative broad-leaved forest in Denmark derived using eddy covariance range from -7x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (1st percentile) to 5x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (99th percentile), and have a median value of -1.6x10(6) m(-2) s(-1). The statistical uncertainties associated with the particle number flux estimates are larger than those for momentum fluxes and imply that in this data set approximately half of the particle number fluxes are not statistically different to zero. Particle number fluxes from relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) and eddy covariance are highly correlated and of almost identical magnitude. Flux estimates from the co-spectral and dissipation methods are also correlated with those from eddy covariance but exhibit higher absolute magnitude of fluxes.     

Determination of the origin of groundwater nitrate at an air weapons range using the dual isotope approach

Nitrate is one of the most common contaminants in shallow groundwater, and many sources may contribute to the nitrate load within an aquifer. Groundwater nitrate plumes have been detected at several ammunition production sites. However, the presence of multiple potential sources and the lack of existing isotopic data concerning explosive degradation-induced nitrate constitute a limitation when it comes to linking both types of contaminants. On military training ranges, high nitrate concentrations in groundwater were reported for the first time as part of the hydrogeological characterization of the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range (CLAWR), Alberta, Canada. Explosives degradation is thought to be the main source of nitrate contamination at CLAWR, as no other major source is present. Isotopic analyses of N and O in nitrate were performed on groundwater samples from the unconfined and confined aquifers; the dual isotopic analysis approach was used in order to increase the chances of identifying the source of nitrate. The isotopic ratios for the groundwater samples with low nitrate concentration suggested a natural origin with a strong contribution of anthropogenic atmospheric NOx. For the samples with nitrate concentration above the expected background level the isotopic ratios did not correspond to any source documented in the literature. Dissolved RDX samples were degraded in the laboratory and results showed that all reproduced degradation processes released nitrate with a strong fractionation. Laboratory isotopic values for RDX-derived NO(3)(-) produced a trend of high delta(18)O-low delta(15)N to low delta(18)O-high delta(15)N, and groundwater samples with nitrate concentrations above the expected background level appeared along this trend. Our results thus point toward a characteristic field of isotopic ratios for nitrate being derived from the degradation of RDX.     

Corruption in emergency procurement

Corruption in emergency procurement reduces the resources available for life‐saving operations, lowers the quality of products and services provided, and diverts aid from those who need it most. ¹ 1 The paper is based on a study for a project of the Chr Michelsen Institute (CMI)'s U4 Anti‐Corruption Resource Centre entitled ‘Corruption in Emergencies’ (see http://www.u4.no ).
It also negatively influences public support for humanitarian relief, both in the affected country and abroad. This paper aims to unpack and analyse the following question in order to mitigate risk: how and where does corruption typically occur, and what can be done? Suggested strategies reflect a multi‐layered approach that stresses internal agency control mechanisms, conflict‐sensitive management, and the need for common systems among operators.     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.     

An assessment of the optimal scale for monitoring of MODIS and FIA NPP across the eastern USA

Robust monitoring of carbon sequestration by forests requires the use of multiple data sources analyzed at a common scale. To that end, model-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data of net primary productivity (NPP) were compared at increasing levels of spatial aggregation across the eastern USA. A total of 52,167 FIA plots and colocated MODIS forest cover NPP pixels were analyzed using a hexagonal tiling system. A protocol was developed to assess the optimal scale as an optimal size of landscape patches at which to map spatially explicit estimates of MODIS and FIA NPP. The optimal mapping resolution (hereafter referred to as optimal scale) is determined using spatially scaled z-statistics as the tradeoff between increased spatial agreement as measured by Pearson’s correlation coefficient and decreased details of coverage as measured by the number of hexagons. Spatial sensitivity was also assessed using land cover assessment and forest homogeneity using spatially scaled z-statistics. Pearson correlations indicate that MODIS and FIA NPP are most highly correlated when using large hexagons, while z-statistics indicate an optimal scale at an intermediate hexagon size of 390 km². This optimal scale had more spatial detail than was obtained for larger hexagons and greater spatial agreement than was obtained for smaller hexagons. The z-statistics for land cover assessment and forest homogeneity also indicated an optimal scale of 390 km².     

Living in an oasis: Rapid transformations,resilience, and resistance in the North Water Area societies and ecosystems

Based on lake sediment data, archaeological findings, and historical records, we describe rapid transformations, resilience and resistance in societies and ecosystems, and their interactions in the past in the North Water area related to changes in climate and historical events. Examples are the formation of the polynya itself and the early arrival of people, ca. 4500 years ago, and later major human immigrations (different societies, cultural encounters, or abandonment) from other regions in the Arctic. While the early immigrations had relatively modest and localised effect on the ecosystem, the later-incoming culture in the early thirteenth century was marked by extensive migrations into and out of the area and abrupt shifts in hunting technologies. This has had long-lasting consequences for the local lake ecosystems. Large natural transformations in the ecosystems have also occurred over relatively short time periods related to changes in the polynya. Finally, we discuss the future perspectives for the North Water area given the many threats, but also opportunities.     

On the crucial importance of a small bird: The ecosystem services of the little auk (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alle alle</Emphasis>) population in Northwest Greenland in a long-term perspective

The little auk is the most numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and its most important breeding area is the eastern shores of the North Water polynya. Here, a population of an estimated 33 million pairs breeds in huge colonies and significantly shapes the ecosystem. Archaeological remains in the colonies document that the little auk has been harvested over millennia. Anthropological research discloses how the little auk has a role both as social engineer and as a significant resource for the Inughuit today. The hunting can be practiced without costly equipment, and has no gender and age discrimination in contrast to the dominant hunt for marine mammals. Little auks are ecological engineers in the sense that they transport vast amounts of nutrients from sea to land, where the nutrients are deposited as guano. Here, the fertilized vegetation provides important foraging opportunities for hares, geese, fox, reindeer, and the introduced muskox. We estimate that the relative muskox density is ten times higher within 1 km of little auk fertilized vegetation hotspots.     

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be “necessary but not sufficient” for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.