Predicting the Risk of Extinction through Hybridization

Abstract: Natural hybridization threatens a substantial number of plant and animal species with extinction, but extinction risk has been difficult to evaluate in the absence of a quantitative assessment of risk factors. We investigated a number of ecological parameters likely to affect extinction risk, through an individual-based model simulating the life cycle of two hybridizing annual plant species. All parameters tested, ranging from population size to variance in pollen-tube growth rates, affected extinction risk. The sensitivity of each parameter varied dramatically across parameter sets, but, overall, the competitive ability, initial frequency, and selfing rate of the native taxon had the strongest effect on extinction. In addition, prezygotic reproductive barriers had a stronger influence on extinction rates than did postzygotic barriers. A stable hybrid zone was possible only when habitat differentiation was included in the model. When there was no habitat differentiation, either one of the parental species or the hybrids eventually displaced the other two taxa. The simulations demonstrated that hybridization is perhaps the most rapidly acting genetic threat to endangered species, with extinction often taking place in less than five generations. The simulation model was also applied to naturally hybridizing species pairs for which considerable genetic and ecological information is available. The predictions from these "worked examples" are in close agreement with observed outcomes and further suggest that an endemic cordgrass species is threatened by hybridization. These simulations provide guidance concerning the kinds of data required to evaluate extinction risk and possible conservation strategies.     

Extended alloparental care in the almost solitary bee Exoneurella eremophila (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

The possibility of extending brood care via the overlapping presence of relatively short lived adults could generate advantages that may have been among the selective forces at the origin of eusociality. In this paper we provide evidence for extended brood care through sib-rearing in the arid-zone allodapine bee, Exoneurella eremophila. Solitary females of the overwintered generation generally die before all their offspring have become independent. In a relatively high proportion of nests, a newly eclosed female invests in her siblings while producing her own offspring in the maternal nest. The sex ratio of the first offspring produced by the overwintered female is highly female biased, but the overall sex ratio of the brood is unbiased. This finding supports the prediction of Bull's 'insurance by protogyny' model of a female bias in the first-produced offspring as a strategy by the mother to ensure extended brood care.     

The role of periodic boundary forcing in plankton pattern formation

We consider one and two-dimensional minimal models in plankton dynamics. The influence of oscillating boundary forcing functions as agents for triggering pattern formation is discussed. In particular it is found that in these conditions population waves arise for one dimensional models, while for two dimensional models, different amplitudes and frequencies in the boundary forcing generate definite patterns, mimicking the boundary term. This happens even though the model we investigate is very simple. The emergence of these features is an interesting metaphor for the fundamental biological problem of how pattern formation processes may be inevitable in natural heterogeneous ecosystems.