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The economics of climate change in agriculture 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Zilberman David Liu Xuemei Roland-Holst David Sunding David 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2004,9(4):365-382
This paper presents a conceptual frameworkof the impact of climate change onagriculture. It assumes that climatechange will result in a fertilizationeffect and a shift of agro-ecologicalconditions away from the Equator towardsthe Poles. The agro-ecological shift islikely to reduce yield because of reducedacreage and the fertilization effect willincrease yield. The aggregate effectdepends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may beless significant than its distributionaleffects and the results are consistentwith previous empirical studies. Theimpact of climate change depends on itspace. Faster changes in climate willresult in higher cost. The assessment ofthe cost has to consider that climatechange is a dynamic phenomenon that mayrequire continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizesconservation may increase cost ofadjustment and environmental policiesshould emphasize adaptation andflexibility. 相似文献
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Iigo Loureiro M. Concepcin Escorial Jos María García-Baudin M. Cristina Chueca 《Agriculture, ecosystems & environment》2007,120(2-4):384-390
Hybridization between Aegilops geniculata, A. biuncialis and bread wheat Triticum aestivum has been evaluated during two seasons under simulated field conditions to estimate the field hybridization rate under Central Spain conditions. The mean frequencies of hybridization between A. biuncialis and A. geniculata with wheat were 0.34% and 0.31%, respectively. Data from 10 hybrid plants for each combination showed that hybrids can be partially fertile by backcrossing with wheat parent, with percent averages of 3.17 grains/spikelets for A. biuncialis × wheat hybrids and 2.87 grains/spikelets for A. geniculata × wheat hybrids. Self-pollination, although at very low rates, was also possible in hybrids. The potential risks associated with natural hybridization in the context of transgenic wheat cultivation are discussed. 相似文献
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Jan Gustafsson Göran Annerén Ulla-Britt Ericsson Lars Svanberg Sten A. Ivarsson 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(5):451-454
The observation that thyroid disease is frequent in mothers of children with Down syndrome (DS) has suggested that maternal thyroid antibodies could be a factor predisposing to trisomy 21 in their offspring. In this study, the incidences of thyroglobulin (Tg) and thyroid peroxidase (TPO) antibodies were analysed with a sensitive solid-phase immunosorbent radioassay in sera from 29 mothers giving birth to children with trisomy 21 and 87 control mothers. The serum samples were collected at delivery. There was no statistical difference regarding the proportion of thyroid antibodies (against Tg and/or TPO) in the two groups. Thyroid antibodies were detected in 6/29 (20.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and in 23/87 (26.4 per cent) of the control mothers. Among the women with thyroid antibodies, 4/6 (66.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and 12/23 (52 per cent) of the control mothers had antibodies against both Tg and TPO. There was no increase in the relative risk of having a child with DS if the titre of either Tg or TPO antibodies or both were positive, i.e. ≥ 1/5. The results indicate that the presence of thyroid antibodies in the serum of a pregnant woman has no prognostic value for the birth of an infant with DS. 相似文献
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Linda?Anderson-BerryEmail author David?King 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(3):367-392
Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and
complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets
on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies.
Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed
as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability
to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving
and ongoing. 相似文献
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Maguelone G. Forest Hervé Bétuel Philippe Couillin André Boué Michel David Daniel Floret René Francois Pierre Guibaud Henri Plauchu Raphaël Rappaport 《黑龙江环境通报》1981,1(3):197-207
Amniotic fluid (AF) levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) and testosterone (T) were determined at 16–17 weeks in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH and results compared to 75 normal controls. The fetus was predicted to be unaffected in 12 cases on the findings of normal AF levels of both 17OHP and T and the latter allowed a correct prediction of fetal sex in all instances. HLA typing confirmed normality in 12 cases revealing 5 carriers, 5 homozygous normal and 2 indeterminate. Steroid levels of the 2 groups were similar. Three fetuses were predicted to be CAH affected on unambiguously high levels of 17OHP and T (in female only). HLA typing was in agreement, and the diagnosis was confirmed in 2 abortuses and a female newborn by physical and hormonal studies. In the last 2 cases AF levels of OHP and T were normal but HLA (A/B/C) genotypes were identical to the CAH affected siblings. Normal physical and hormonal findings in the 2 aborted fetuses would exclude the possibility of an in utero virilizing form of CAH. The discrepancy could be explained on the basis that the fetuses had an allelic form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency or on the basis of recombination (not fully tested). It is concluded that a fully informative prenatal diagnosis of CAH should not rely entirely on HLA typing but on hormonal studies. 相似文献
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Masera Omar R. Cerón Alma Delia Ordóñez Antonio 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2001,6(3-4):291-312
We examine carbon (C) reference and mitigation scenarios for the Mexicanforest sector between the year 2000 and 2030. Estimates are presentedseparately for the period 2008–2012.Future C emissions and capture are estimated using a simulation modelthat: a) allocates the country land use/land cover classes among differentfuture uses and categories using demand-based scenarios for forestryproducts; b) estimates the total C densities associated to each land usecategory, and c) determines the net carbon implications of the process ofland use/cover change according to the different scenarios.The options analyzed include both afforestation/reforestation, such ascommercial, bionenergy and restoration plantations, and agroforestrysystems, and forest conservation, through the sustainable management ofnative forests and forest protection.The total mitigation potential, estimated as the difference between the totallong-term carbon stock in the reference and the mitigation scenario reaches300 × 106 Mg C in the year 2012 and increases to 1,382 × 106 Mg C in 2030. The average net sequestration in the 30 year period is 46 × 106 Mg C yr-1, or 12.5 × 106 Mg C yr-1 within the period 2008 to 2012. The costs of selected mitigation options range from 0.7–3.5 Mg C-1 to 35 Mg C-1. Some options are cost effective. 相似文献
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