USE OF THE DELPHI METHOD IN RESOLVING COMPLEX WATER RESOURCES ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: The tri‐state river basins, shared by Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, are being modeled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help facilitate agreement in an acrimonious water dispute among these different state governments. Modeling of such basin reservoir operations requires parallel understanding of several river system components: hydropower production, flood control, municipal and industrial water use, navigation, and reservoir fisheries requirements. The Delphi method, using repetitive surveying of experts, was applied to determine fisheries' water and lake‐level requirements on 25 reservoirs in these interstate basins. The Delphi technique allowed the needs and requirements of fish populations to be brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with other water supply and demand components. When the subject matter is concisely defined and limited, this technique can rapidly assess expert opinion on any natural resource issue, and even move expert opinion toward greater agreement.     

Rapid adaptation to crisis events: Insights from the bait crisis in the Maine lobster fishery

Climate change, overfishing, and other anthropogenic drivers are forcing marine resource users and decision makers to adapt—often rapidly. In this article we introduce the concept of pathways to rapid adaptation to crisis events to bring attention to the double-edged role that institutions play in simultaneously enabling and constraining swift responses to emerging crises. To develop this concept, we draw on empirical evidence from a case study of the iconic Maine lobster (Homarus americanus) industry. In the Gulf of Maine, the availability of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stock, a key source of bait in the Maine lobster industry, declined sharply. We investigate the patterns of bait use in the fishery over an 18-year period (2002–2019) and how the lobster industry was able to abruptly adapt to the decline of locally-sourced herring in 2019 that came to be called the bait crisis. We found that adaptation strategies to the crisis were diverse, largely uncoordinated, and imperfectly aligned, but ultimately led to a system-level shift towards a more diverse and globalized bait supply. This shift was enabled by existing institutions and hastened an evolution in the bait system that was already underway, as opposed to leading to system transformation. We suggest that further attention to raceways may be useful in understanding how and, in particular, why marine resource users and coastal communities adapt in particular ways in the face of shocks and crises.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01617-8.     

The Dakota Access Pipeline and the Breakdown of Participatory Processes in Environmental Decision-Making

This article employs a close reading of documents related to the permitting process for the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) and ensuing legal battle in order to argue that extant regulatory frameworks for environmental decision-making are insufficient to promote environmental justice outcomes. By analyzing the US Army Corps of Engineer's responses to comments made during the public comment phase of the NEPA evaluation of the DAPL, I argue that regulatory frameworks may exacerbate environmental justice concerns by incentivizing decision makers to prioritize justification for their decisions and avoiding legal battles over meaningfully engaging with communities. This finding leads me to call for more engagement with energy democracy's orientation toward community-led processes as a corrective to current regulatory systems. This article expands on extant work in environmental communication by more thoroughly investigating the flaws in extant regulatory frameworks and calling for a perspectival shift in environmental decision-making.     

Estimating damages from climate-related natural disasters for the Caribbean at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming above preindustrial levels

This paper examines historical and future changes in normalised damages resulting from climate-related natural disasters for the Caribbean. Annualised damages of USD824 million are shown to be non-stationary over the historical period 1964 to 2013. Perturbations of (i) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and (ii) the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) appear to be associated with historical damages. Both the TNA and AMO are known modulators of hurricane activity and rainfall amounts in the Caribbean. Indicative future damages are determined using (i) cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of perturbed climate states and (ii) an artificial neural network (ANN) model of damages using projected TNA values and the state of the AMO derived from an ensemble of five coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) run under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Estimates of future damages are determined when global mean surface temperatures (GMST) reach and exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Annual normalised damages may potentially increase to at least USD1395 million or close to double for 1.5 °C. At 2 °C, higher damages may occur; however, large uncertainty across all GCMs prohibits the identification of significant difference between 1.5 and 2 °C. Significant differences in damages do, however, exist for at least two of the GCMs for the two climate states. The robustness of the results is discussed in light of a number of issues, including limitations associated with the data.     

Planning routes around the world: International evidence for southern route preferences

Three studies test whether the southern route preference, which describes the tendency for route planners to disproportionately select south- rather than north-going routes, can be attributed to regional elevation patterns; specifically, we ask whether this effect replicates in three topographically disparate international regions, one of which is characterized by higher elevations to the north and lower to the south (Padua, Italy), and two characterized by higher elevations to the south and lower to the north (Enschede, Netherlands; Sofia, Bulgaria). In all cases, we found strong evidence that route planners disproportionately select south- rather than north-going routes at rates exceeding chance. We conclude that the southern route preference is driven by strong associations between canonical direction and perceived effort of route traversal; these effects are somewhat perplexing given that such associations are not founded in the reality of physical space.     

Phytoplankton production patterns in Massachusetts Bay and the absence of the 1998 winter–spring bloom

The seasonal productivity cycle and factors controlling annual variation in the timing and magnitude of the winter–spring bloom were examined for several locations (range: 42°20.35′–42°26.63′N; 70°44.19′–70°56.52′W) in Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay, USA, from 1995 to 1999, and compared with earlier published data (1992–1994). Primary productivity (mg C m⁻² day⁻¹) in Massachusetts Bay from 1995 to 1999 was generally characterized by a well-developed winter–spring bloom of several weeks duration, high but variable production during the summer, and a prominent fall bloom. The bulk of production (mg C m⁻³ day⁻¹) typically occurred in the upper 15 m of the water column. At a nearby Boston Harbor station a gradual pattern of increasing areal production from winter through summer was more typical, with the bulk of production restricted to the upper 5 m. Annual productivity in Massachusetts Bay and Boston Harbor ranged from a low of 160 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ to a high of 787 g C m⁻² year⁻¹ from 1992 to 1999. Mean annual productivity was higher (mean=525 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) and more variable near the harbor entrance than in western Massachusetts Bay. At the harbor station productivity varied more than 3.5-fold (CV=40%) over an 8 year sampling period. Average annual productivity (305–419 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) and variability around the means (CV=25–27%) were lower at both the outer nearfield and central nearfield regions of Massachusetts Bay. Annual productivity in 1998 was unusually low at all three sites (<220 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) due to the absence of a winter–spring phytoplankton bloom. Potential factors influencing the occurrence of a spring bloom were investigated. Incident irradiance during the winter–spring period was not significantly different (P > 0.05) among years (1995–1999). The mean photic depth during the bloom period was significantly deeper (P < 0.05) in 1998, signifying greater light availability with depth. Nutrients were also in abundance during the winter–spring of 1998 with stratified conditions not observed until May. In general, the magnitude of the winter–spring bloom in Massachusetts Bay from 1995 to 1999 was significantly correlated with winter water temperature (r ²=0.78) and zooplankton abundance (r ²=0.74) over the bloom period (typically February–April). The absence of the 1998 bloom was associated with higher than average water temperature and elevated levels of zooplankton abundance just prior to, and during, the peak winter–spring bloom period. Received: 3 July 2000 / Accepted: 6 December 2000     

Countryside Biogeography of Moths in a Fragmented Landscape: Biodiversity in Native and Agricultural Habitats

Abstract: Studies of fragmented landscapes, especially in the tropics, have traditionally focused on the native fragments themselves, ignoring species distributions in surrounding agricultural or other human-dominated areas. We sampled moth species richness within a 227-ha forest fragment and in four surrounding agricultural habitats (coffee, shade coffee, pasture, and mixed farms) in southern Costa Rica. We found no significant difference in moth species richness or abundance among agricultural habitats, but agricultural sites within 1 km of the forest fragment had significantly higher richness and abundance than sites farther than 3.5 km from the fragment. In addition, species composition differed significantly between distance classes ( but not among agricultural habitats), with near sites more similar to forest than far sites. These results suggest that (1) different agricultural production regimes in this region may offer similar habitat elements and thus may not differ substantially in their capacities to support native moth populations and (2) that the majority of moths may utilize both native and agricultural habitats and move frequently between them, forming "halos" of relatively high species richness and abundance around forest fragments. Correlations between species richness and the amount of nearby forest cover, measured over circles of various radii around the sites, suggest that halos extend approximately 1.0–1.4 km from the forest edge. The extent of these halos likely differs among taxa and may influence their ability to survive in fragmented landscapes.     

Review of Policies and Guidelines on Infant Feeding in Emergencies: Common Ground and Gaps

Recent crises in regions where exclusive breastfeeding is not the norm have highlighted the importance of effective policies and guidelines on infant feeding in emergencies. In 1993, UNICEF compiled a collection of policy and guideline documents relating to the feeding of infants in emergency situations. In June 2000 Save the Children, UK, UNICEF and the Institute of Child Health undertook a review of those documents, updating the list and identifying the common ground that exists among the different policies. The review also analysed the consistency of the policy framework, and highlighted important areas where guidelines are missing or unclear. This article is an attempt to share more widely the main issues arising from this review. The key conclusions were that, in general, there is consensus on what constitutes best practice in infant feeding, however, the lack of clarity in the respective responsibilities of key UN agencies (in particular UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP) over issues relating to co-ordination of activities which affect infant-feeding interventions constrains the implementation of systems to support best practice. Furthermore, the weak evidence base on effective and appropriate intervention strategies for supporting optimal infant feeding in emergencies means that there is poor understanding of the practical tasks needed to support mothers and minimise infant morbidity and mortality. We, therefore, have two key recommendations: first that the operational UN agencies, primarily UNICEF, examine the options for improving co-ordination on a range of activities to uphold best practice of infant feeding in emergencies; second, that urgent attention be given to developing and supporting operational research on the promotion of optimal infant-feeding interventions.     

Dose transfer of Bacillus thuringiensis from cabbage to the diamondback moth: A graphical simulator

Abstract

The application of agrichemicals is a highly inefficient process and one of the main causes of the environmental and health risks currently associated with pesticide usage. Efforts to mitigate this inefficiency have largely been unsuccessful, due principally to the poor understanding of the processes involved in the spray application of pesticides, from atomization to biological effect. A generalized model of the application system for pesticides from atomization to biological result is described in this overview. The model allows the investigation of the biological consequences of altering the application parameters for the bacterial insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis when used against the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella L.) with cabbage as the substrate. Parameters input into the model include the in‐flight droplet size frequency distribution of the spray cloud, spatial distribution of the deposit, spread and subsequent environmental degradation of the deposit, and behavioral and toxicological effects.

It is hoped that such a modelling approach can afford insights into the application process, and, through a better understanding of the inefficient but still highly effective hydraulic application systems used worldwide, reduce that inefficiency to tolerable levels.     

Air Pollution Research Needs: Herbaceous and Ornamental Plants and Agriculturally Generated Pollutants

Effects of various air pollutants on economically important crops and ornamentals have been studied since before the turn of the century.

Summaries of this research on the effects of air pollutants, that have appeared in criteria documents developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, should be reviewed with respect to differences in plant susceptibility found in various regions of the country. These susceptibility differences are associated with variations in both environmental conditions and distribution of pollutants. Research efforts on air pollution injury to vegetation have often been poorly coordinated leaving many gaps in our knowledge. A better assessment of the impact of air pollution on vegetation is required to attain realistic controls for pollutants affecting agriculture. Research areas of major concern include: baseline information on effects of pollutants on agricultural productivity; dose-response information to support predictive mathematical models for acute and chronic studies of growth, yield, and quality effects; effects of pollutants interacting with other pollutants and with insects and plant diseases; mechanisms of pollutant action; genetic changes related to pollutant effects; effects of environmental stresses on plant response to pollutants; evaluation of plants including soil microbes as pollutant sinks; development of techniques to minimize pollutant effects; and, the effects of agricultural chemicals as air pollutants. There is a need for studies that consider the whole plant in its natural environment. Conceptual models interrelating pollutant effects and their interactions and ultimately mathematical models will be needed to develop an intelligent approach to land management. The effects of agriculturally produced pollutants on plants and other receptors must be identified and quantified.