Modeling future land cover and water quality change in Minneapolis,MN, USA to support drinking water source protection decisions

Continued alteration of the nitrogen cycle exposes receiving waters to elevated nitrogen concentrations and forces drinking water treatment services to plan for such increases in the future. We developed four 2011–2050 land cover change scenarios and modeled the impact of projected land cover change on influent water quality to support long-term planning for the Minneapolis Water Treatment Distribution Service (MWTDS) using Soil Water and Assessment Tool. Projected land cover changes based on relatively unconstrained economic growth led to substantial increases in total nitrogen (TN) loads and modest increases in total phosphorus (TP) loads in spring. Changes in sediment, TN, and TP under two “constrained” growth scenarios were near zero or declined modestly. Longitudinal analysis suggested that the extant vegetation along the Mississippi River corridor upstream of the MWTDS may be a sediment (and phosphorus) trap. Autoregressive analysis of current (2008–2017) chemical treatment application rates (mass per water volume processed) and extant (2001–2011) land cover change revealed that statistically significant increases in chemical treatment rates were temporally congruent with urbanization and conversion of pasture to cropland. Using the current trend in chemical treatment application rates and their inferred relationship to extant land cover change as a bellwether, the unconstrained growth scenarios suggest that future land cover may present challenges to the production of potable water for MWTDS.     

A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin,Western Australia

Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions.     

Snapping Turtles (Chelydra serpentina) As Monitors for Mercury Contamination of Aquatic Environments

We assessed the distribution of mercury in snapping turtles(Chelydra serpentina) by analyzing front shoulder muscle,back leg muscle, tail muscle, blood, liver, and marginalcarapacial scute (shell) of 26 adult turtles from five smalllakes. Total mercury concentration in muscle ranged from 50 to500 ng g^–1 wet weight and was highly correlated among the threetissue locations. There was no relationship between musclemercury concentration and body size. Mercury concentration inblood was similar to muscle; the correlation with muscle mercuryconcentration was significant but there was some variability. Mercury concentration in shell was much higher than in muscle orblood, ranging from 500 to 3300 ng g^–1, and was highly correlatedwith muscle mercury concentration. Liver mercury concentrationwas similar to shell, but was highly variable and uncorrelatedwith any other tissue. We conclude that snapping turtlesaccumulate mercury from their environment and may be usefulmonitors of mercury contamination.     

The plutonium isotopic composition of marine biota on Enewetak Atoll: a preliminary assessment

We have determined the level and distribution of gamma-emitting radionuclides, plutonium activity concentrations, and 240Pu/239Pu atom ratios in tissue samples of giant clam (Tridacna gigas and Hippopus hippopus), a top snail (Trochus nilaticas) and sea cucumber (Holothuria atra) collected from different locations around Enewetak Atoll. The plutonium isotopic measurements were performed using ultra-high sensitivity accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Elevated levels of plutonium were observed in the stomachs (includes the stomach lining) of Tridacna clam (0.62 to 2.98 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.), in the soft parts (edible portion) of top snails (0.25 to 1.7 Bq kg(-1)), wet wt.) and, to a lesser extent, in sea cucumber (0.015 to 0.22 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.) relative to muscle tissue concentrations in clam (0.006 to 0.021 Bq kg(-1), wet wt.) and in comparison with previous measurements of plutonium in fish. These data and information provide a basis for re-evaluating the relative significance of dietary intakes of plutonium from marine foods on Enewetak Atoll and, perhaps most importantly, demonstrate that discrete 240Pu239Pu isotope signatures might well provide a useful investigative tool to monitor source-term attribution and consequences on Enewetak Atoll. One potential application of immediate interest is to monitor and assess the health and ecological impacts of leakage of plutonium (as well as other radionuclides) from a low-level radioactive waste repository on Runit Island relative to background levels of fallout contamination in Enewetak Atoll lagoon.     

Temperature-associated dynamics of songbird winter distributions and abundances

Using Christmas Bird Count data, we analyze the annual spatio-temporal abundances of six passerine species in the upper Great Plains, US (1960-1990). This study provides new insight into how global warming could cause separation of species within present-day communities. We find that winter relative abundances of similarly-sized songbirds are differentially affected by ambient winter temperature. As such, average annual winter temperature fluctuations (i.e., severity of winter) are significantly (P < 0.05) correlated with the relative abundances of three species while the other three are not. Our conditional probability-of-occurrence analysis indicates that the abundances of the three temperature-associated species declined markedly below -4 degrees C while the abundances of the other three species fluctuated little from 8 degrees C to -16 degrees C. We conclude that even in colder climates i) the winter distributions of some, but not all, songbirds are directly or indirectly limited by temperature; and ii) these birds have dynamic abundances that can quickly respond to temperature changes.     

Cyanidation of mercury-rich tailings in artisanal and small-scale gold mining: identifying strategies to manage environmental risks in Southern Ecuador

In many countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Venezuela and Zimbabwe, amalgamated tailings are leached with cyanide to recover remaining gold. This paper describes a recently completed study conducted at seven gold processing centers in Portovelo-Zaruma, Southern Ecuador, which involved consultation with local miners. The objective of the study was to understand the behaviour of mercury (with a focus on mercury loss) in artisanal gold mining operations through the evaluation of two cyanidation processes (Merrill-Crowe and Carbon-in-pulp), using a participatory approach. In order to assess the kinetics of mercury dissolution in cyanide, a bottle roll test was conducted in the laboratory. In the Merrill-Crowe cyanidation process, an average of 24.2% of metallic mercury was determined to be trapped at the bottom of the agitation tanks; 33.1% of mercury is lost in association with solid material and 11.7% is lost in solution. Approximately 31.0% of mercury in solution is sent to the zinc precipitation cells from which 27.8% is precipitated on the zinc shavings, with 3.23% remaining in solution. The mercury precipitated on to the zinc is lost to the atmosphere when the shavings are burned at 900 °C. In the Carbon-in-pulp (CIP) leaching system, 11.2% of the mercury is lost with the solid tailings; 31.6% of the mercury is associated with fine particles in suspension and 50.8% is likely dissolved. About 2.68% is trapped at the bottom of the tank and 3.72% is absorbed by the activated carbon. The bottle roll test revealed that mercury dissolution is directly proportional to cyanide concentration. At 10 g/ton of cyanide, approximately 42% of mercury was leached, whereas all gold was solubilized. During this study, miners recognized the risk associated with the cyanidation of mercury-rich tailings, and were aware of how much mercury is discharged to local streams and to the atmosphere. The active participation of miners in this study has led to the strengthening of their knowledge and awareness of mercury contamination, and has enhanced their understanding of the nature of the problem, as well as the weaknesses and strengths of the system they operate.     

Improving food security in Swaziland: The transition from subsistence to communally managed cash cropping

The Komati Downstream Development Project (KDDP), based upon the Maguga Dam has enabled 6,000 hectares of semi‐arid lowveld, in a region with low and highly variable rainfall to be converted from subsistence to irrigated commercial farming, mainly of sugar cane. This has transformed the Swazi sugar industry from one dominated by a small number of large‐scale commercial estates to one where more than 1,500 previously impoverished small‐scale Swazi farmers have been able to enter the industry by joining farmers’ associations and creating communally managed farms. Recent changes to the EU's Sugar Protocol have undermined the financial viability of the KDDP farms and undermined food security, especially for the poorest, due to the cut in sugar prices. However, some farmers’ associations have opted to keep some of their land as irrigated home gardens, rather than convert all their land to sugar cane. This model has improved food security at a time of low sugar prices and points to a more sustainable way of using water from large scale dams than the conventional model. It is argued that the EU should target support to members of the KDDP who have taken out large‐scale loans to pay for the in‐field infrastructure and encourage all farmers’ associations to adopt the food garden model. This would enable them to continue to benefit from the irrigation through improved production of subsistence crops, whilst they diversify their commercial production into novel markets.     

Movement of diuron and hexazinone in clay soil and infiltrated pond water

Pre-emergence herbicide residues were detected in domestic wells sampled near Tracy, CA. This study sought to determine the source of contamination by comparing soil distribution of diuron [N'-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-N,N-dimethylurea] and hexazinone [3-cyclohexyl-6-(dimethylamino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H,3H)-dione] in an agricultural field where the soil was a cracking clay to infiltration of residues in water captured by an adjacent holding pond. Diuron and hexazinone were applied in December to a 3-yr-old alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) crop. Water content of soil taken after major rainfall but before irrigation at 106 d after application was elevated at the lowest depth sampled centered at 953 mm, indicating water was available for percolation. Herbicide residues (reporting limit 8 microg kg(-1)) were confined above the 152 mm soil depth, even after subsequent application of two border-check surface irrigations. The pattern of distribution and concentration of residues in the soil were similar to results obtained from the LEACHM model, suggesting that macropore flow was limited to a shallow depth of soil. Herbicide residues were measured in runoff water at the first irrigation at 20 microg L(-1) for diuron and 1 microg L(-1) for hexazinone. Runoff water captured in the pond rapidly infiltrated into the subsurface soil, causing a concomitant rise in ground water elevation near the pond. Herbicide residues were also detected in the sampled ground water. We concluded that the pond was the predominant source for movement to ground water. Since addition of a surfactant to the spray mixture did not reduce concentrations in runoff water, mitigation methods will focus on minimizing infiltration of water from the pond.