Modeling carbon sequestration under zero tillage at the regional scale. I. The effect of soil erosion

Zero tillage is recognized as a potential measure to sequester carbon dioxide in soils and to reduce CO₂ emissions from arable lands. An up-scaling approach of the output of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model with the information system SLISYS-BW has been used to estimate the CO₂-mitigation potential in the state of Baden-Württemberg (SW-Germany). The state territory of 35,742 km² is subdivided into eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ), which have been further subdivided into a total of 3976 spatial response units. Annual CO₂-mitigation rates where estimated from the changes in soil organic carbon content comparing 30 years simulations under conventional and zero tillage. Special attention was given to the influence of tillage practices on the losses of organic carbon through soil erosion, and consequently on the calculation of CO₂-mitigation rates. Under conventional tillage, mean carbon losses through erosion in the AEZ were estimated to be up to 0.45 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. The apparent CO₂-mitigation rate for the conversion from conventional to zero tillage ranges from 0.08 to 1.82 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ in the eight AEZ, if the carbon losses through soil erosion are included in the calculations. However, the higher carbon losses under conventional tillage compared to zero tillage are composed of both, losses through enhanced CO₂ emissions, and losses through intensified soil erosion. The adjusted net CO₂-mitigation rates of zero tillage, subtracting the reduced carbon losses through soil erosion, are between 0.07 and 1.27 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ and the estimated net mitigation rate for the entire state amounts to 285 Gg C a⁻¹. This equals to 1045 Gg CO₂-equivalents per year with the cropping patterns in the reference year 2000. The results call attention to the necessity to revise those estimation methods for CO₂-mitigation which are exclusively or predominantly based on the measurements of differential changes in total soil organic carbon without taking into account the tillage effects on carbon losses through soil erosion.     

Influences of divergent behavioral strategies upon risk allocation in juvenile flatfishes

Animals balance feeding and anti-predator behaviors at various temporal scales. When risk is infrequent or brief, prey can postpone feeding in the short term and temporally allocate feeding behavior to less risky periods. If risk is frequent or lengthy, however, prey must eventually resume feeding to avoid fitness consequences. Species may exhibit different behavioral strategies, depending on the fitness tradeoffs that exist in their environment or across their life histories. North Pacific flatfishes that share juvenile rearing habitat exhibit a variety of responses to predation risk, but their response to risk frequency has not been examined. We observed the feeding and anti-predator behaviors of young-of-the-year English sole (Parophrys vetulus), northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra), and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis)—three species that exhibit divergent anti-predator strategies—following exposure to three levels of predation risk: no risk, infrequent (two exposures/day), and frequent (five exposures/day). The English sole responded to the frequent risk treatment with higher feeding rates than during infrequent risk, following a pattern of behavioral response that is predicted by the risk allocation hypothesis; rock sole and halibut did not follow the predicted pattern, but this may be due to the limited range of treatments. Our observations of unique anti-predator strategies, along with differences in foraging and species-specific ecologies, suggest divergent trajectories of risk allocation for the three species.     

Ten years of varying lake level and selection on size-at-maturity in sockeye salmon

Despite the ubiquity of studies quantifying the strength and form of selection in nature, rarely is the ecological context for contemporary selection understood. Here we report a case where lake level is a selective factor acting on sockeye salmon body size-at-maturity because low lake levels cause large salmon to strand and die rather than reach the breeding grounds. As a result of a semelparous life history, death for salmon at this stage results in a lifetime fitness of zero. We combined information on the level of Lake Aleknagik (southwestern Alaska, USA) from 1952 through 2006 with a detailed comparison of the body size of mature salmon that died at the mouth of Hansen Creek vs. individuals that successfully ascended to the spawning grounds over 10 breeding seasons (1997-2006). The percentage of salmon stranding at the mouth varied among years: 2-42% in males and < 1-26% in females. Formal selection analyses indicated that the largest individuals were most susceptible to stranding mortality, especially in years when many salmon stranded, and these were years with low lake levels. Taken together, these results suggest that lake level was a strong and consistent selective force acting on this salmon population, acting synergistically with size-selective predation by bears. Salmon breeding in Hansen Creek tend to be smaller, younger, and more streamlined than conspecifics from neighboring populations, suggesting that selection against large individuals could be driving these patterns.     

Effect of prior disturbances on the extent and severity of wildfire in Colorado subalpine forests

Disturbances are important in creating spatial heterogeneity of vegetation patterns that in turn may affect the spread and severity of subsequent disturbances. Between 1997 and 2002 extensive areas of subalpine forests in northwestern Colorado were affected by a blowdown of trees, bark beetle outbreaks, and salvage logging. Some of these stands were also affected by severe fires in the late 19th century. During a severe drought in 2002, fires affected extensive areas of these subalpine forests. We evaluated and modeled the extent and severity of the 2002 fires in relation to these disturbances that occurred over the five years prior to the fires and in relation to late 19th century stand-replacing fires. Occurrence of disturbances prior to 2002 was reconstructed using a combination of tree-ring methods, aerial photograph interpretation, field surveys, and geographic information systems (GIS). The extent and severity of the 2002 fires were based on the normalized difference burn ratio (NDBR) derived from satellite imagery. GIS and classification trees were used to analyze the effects of prefire conditions on the 2002 fires. Previous disturbance history had a significant influence on the severity of the 2002 fires. Stands that were severely blown down (> 66% trees down) in 1997 burned more severely than other stands, and young (approximately 120 year old) postfire stands burned less severely than older stands. In contrast, prefire disturbances were poor predictors of fire extent, except that young (approximately 120 years old) postfire stands were less extensively burned than older stands. Salvage logging and bark beetle outbreaks that followed the 1997 blowdown (within the blowdown as well as in adjacent forest that was not blown down) did not appear to affect fire extent or severity. Conclusions regarding the influence of the beetle outbreaks on fire extent and severity are limited, however, by spatial and temporal limitations associated with aerial detection surveys of beetle activity. Thus, fire extent in these forests is largely independent of prefire disturbance history and vegetation conditions. In contrast, fire severity, even during extreme fire weather and in conjunction with a multiyear drought, is influenced by prefire stand conditions, including the history of previous disturbances.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.     

Ökotoxikologische Charakterisierung von Nonylphenol Isomeren

Background, Aim and Scope

Acute toxicity and estrogenic potency of six nonylphenol isomers, with nearly the same chemical structure and the same physico-chemical properties, were investigated in this study. Thes datasets give some insight into how far structure activity relationships can be used for these modes of action.

Methods

The toxicity of the isomers was investigated by the daphnia immobilisation test as well as the duckweed growth inhibition test. The estrogenic potency of the p-NP isomers was analyzed by MVLN-Reportergen-Assay.

Results

No differences between the isomers were found for baseline toxicity, neither in the daphnia immobilisation test nor in the duckweed growth inhibition test. Estrogenic potency of the isomers in the MVLN reportergen assay was markedly different for the tested isomers. The highest estrogenic potency was found for p353-NP, whereas p262-NP and p22-NP exhibited no estrogenic, but partial antagonistic potency in this assay.

Discussion

The results from this study clearly indicate how far simplification and structure activity relationships can be used in risk analysis. For bioconcentration and baseline toxicity structure activity relationships are possible and will allow simplification of the risk analysis. For special modes of action simple structure activity relationships are per se impossible. This was shown especially for the estrogen receptor interactions, where only small structural differences can lead to different modes of action.

Conclusions

It seems possible to reduce the effort for risk analysis, using combinations of measured data and predictive models. At the moment it seems unlikely that predictive models alone will and can be used for risk analysis.     

绿矾处理垃圾焚烧灰渣过程中重金属的同时稳定化研究

采用绿矾稳定垃圾焚烧灰渣(包括飞灰及底排渣)中的重金属,将绿矾溶液与灰渣混合然后实施氧化过程．以Pb,Hg,Cd,As和Cr为代表,研究各类重金属同时稳定化的反应条件,着重研究了铬的稳定条件研究结果表明重金属Pb在各种条件下的稳定效果良好;As和Cd的稳定化效果随绿矾用量的增加而增强,其中Cd还受过程pH值的影响．厌氧阶段的设置、CO2的辅助处理、提高绿矾的用量都有助于Cr的稳定化;同时使用CO2辅助处理也有助于As的稳定化,但CO2只适用于强碱性、高酸中和能力的灰渣．反应温度在常温至90℃变化只影响氧化速度．研究还表明飞灰与底排渣可作为一股废物流同时处理．对Hg,应从研究其物质形态出发来研究它的稳定．     

Empirical models based on the universal soil loss equation fail to predict sediment discharges from Chesapeake Bay catchments

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its derivatives are widely used for identifying watersheds with a high potential for degrading stream water quality. We compared sediment yields estimated from regional application of the USLE, the automated revised RUSLE2, and five sediment delivery ratio algorithms to measured annual average sediment delivery in 78 catchments of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We did the same comparisons for another 23 catchments monitored by the USGS. Predictions exceeded observed sediment yields by more than 100% and were highly correlated with USLE erosion predictions (Pearson r range, 0.73-0.92; p < 0.001). RUSLE2-erosion estimates were highly correlated with USLE estimates (r = 0.87; p < 001), so the method of implementing the USLE model did not change the results. In ranked comparisons between observed and predicted sediment yields, the models failed to identify catchments with higher yields (r range, -0.28-0.00; p > 0.14). In a multiple regression analysis, soil erodibility, log (stream flow), basin shape (topographic relief ratio), the square-root transformed proportion of forest, and occurrence in the Appalachian Plateau province explained 55% of the observed variance in measured suspended sediment loads, but the model performed poorly (r(2) = 0.06) at predicting loads in the 23 USGS watersheds not used in fitting the model. The use of USLE or multiple regression models to predict sediment yields is not advisable despite their present widespread application. Integrated watershed models based on the USLE may also be unsuitable for making management decisions.     

Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.     

Effects of Riparian Vegetation and Watershed Urbanization on Fishes in Streams of the Mid‐Atlantic Piedmont (USA)1

Abstract: The joint influences of riparian vegetation and urbanization on fish assemblages were analyzed by depletion sampling in paired forested and nonforested reaches of 25 small streams along an urbanization gradient. Nonforested reaches were narrower than their forested counterparts, so densities based on surface area differ from linear densities (based on reach length). Linear densities (based on number or biomass of fish) of American eel, white sucker and tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of benthic invertivores were significantly higher in nonforested reaches, while linear densities of margined madtom and the number of pool species were significantly higher in forested reaches. Observed riparian effects may reflect differences in habitat and algal productivity between forested and nonforested reaches. These results suggest that relatively small‐scale riparian restoration projects can affect local geomorphology and the abundance of fish. Dense vegetative cover in riparian zones and similar or analogous habitats in both forested and nonforested reaches, the relatively small scale of the nonforested reaches, and the low statistical power to detect differences in abundance of rare species may have limited the observed differences between forested and nonforested reaches. There was a strong urbanization gradient, with reductions of intolerant species and increases of tolerant species and omnivores with increasing urbanization. Interactions between riparian vegetation type and urbanization were found for blacknose dace, creek chub, tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of lithophilic spawners. The study did not provide consistent support for the hypotheses that responses of fish to riparian vegetation would be overwhelmed by urban degradation or insignificant at low urbanization.