Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Spatial heterogeneity influences native and nonnative plant species richness

Spatial heterogeneity may have differential effects on the distribution of native and nonnative plant species richness. We examined the effects of spatial heterogeneity on native and nonnative plant species richness distributions in the central part of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Spatial heterogeneity around vegetation plots was characterized using landscape metrics, environmental/topographic variables (slope, aspect, elevation, and distance from stream or river), and soil variables (nitrogen, clay, and sand). The landscape metrics represented five components of landscape heterogeneity and were measured at four spatial extents (within varying radii of 120, 240, 480, and 960 m) using the FRAGSTATS landscape pattern analysis program. Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size (AICc) was used to select the best models from a set of multiple linear regression models developed for native and nonnative plant species richness at four spatial extents and three levels of ecological hierarchy (i.e., landscape, land cover, and community). Both native and nonnative plant species richness were positively correlated with edge density, Simpson's diversity index and interspersion/juxtaposition index, and were negatively correlated with mean patch size. The amount of variation explained at four spatial extents and three hierarchical levels ranged from 30% to 70%. At the landscape level, the best models explained 43% of the variation in native plant species richness and 70% of the variation in nonnative plant species richness (240-m extent). In general, the amount of variation explained was always higher for nonnative plant species richness, and the inclusion of landscape metrics always significantly improved the models. The best models explained 66% of the variation in nonnative plant species richness for both the conifer land cover type and lodgepole pine community. The relative influence of the components of spatial heterogeneity differed for native and nonnative plant species richness and varied with the spatial extent of analysis and levels of ecological hierarchy. The study offers an approach to quantify spatial heterogeneity to improve models of plant biodiversity. The results demonstrate that ecologists must recognize the importance of spatial heterogeneity in managing native and nonnative plant species.     

Attributes of reliable long-term landscape-scale studies: Malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists

Monitoring long-term change in forested landscapes is an intimidating challenge with considerable practical, methodological, and theoretical limitations. Current field approaches used to assess vegetation change at the plot-to-stand scales and nationwide forest monitoring programs may not be appropriate at landscape scales. We emphasize that few vegetation monitoring programs (and, thus, study design models) are designed to detect spatial and temporal trends at landscape scales. Based primarily on advice from many sources, and trial and error, we identify 14 attributes of a reliable long-term landscape monitoring program: malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists. The attributes are to: secure long-term funding and commitment; develop flexible goals; refine objectives; pay adequate attention to information management; take an experimental approach to sampling design; obtain peer-review and statistical review of research proposals and publications; avoid bias in selection of long-term plot locations; insure adequate spatial replication; insure adequate temporal replication; synthesize retrospective, experimental, and related studies; blend theoretical and empirical models with the means to validate both; obtain periodic research program evaluation; integrate and synthesize with larger and smaller scale research, inventory, and monitoring programs; and develop an extensive outreach program. Using these 14 attributes as a guide, we describe one approach to assess the potential effect of global change on the vegetation of the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. This self-evaluation helps identify strengthes and weaknesses in our program, and may serve the same role for other landscape ecologists in other programs.     

Endocrine disruption of water and sediment extracts in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay using isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout

Goal, Scope and Background In order to evaluate the estrogenic activity of sediments and XAD water extracts of selected sites of the catchment area of the River Neckar, a river system in Southern Germany, an integrative assessment approach was used to assess the ecological hazard potential of endocrine-disrupting compounds in sediment and water. Methods The approach is based on estrogen receptor-mediated vitellogenin synthesis induced in isolated hepatocytes of rainbow trout and quantified in a non-radioactive dot blot/RNAse protection-assay in parallel to comprehensive chemical analyses of estrogenic substances. Results and Discussion Numerous investigated extracts revealed an estrogen activity comparable to that of the positive control (1 nM 17?-estradiol corresponding to 270 ng/L in the test medium). Based on a concentration factor of 30 in the extracts and a recovery of XAD resins of approximately 80 %, 17?-estradiol equivalent concentrations between 20 and 26.7 ng/L could be calculated downstream of a sewage treatment plant (< 0.1 ng/L for a reference site). A comparison of the bioassay-derived Bio-TEQs (toxicity equivalents) and the Chem-TEQs revealed a high correlation with a Pearson coefficient of 0.85, indicating that the same ranking of the samples could be obtained with respect to the endocrine disrupting potential with both chemical and bioanalytical analysis. However, the TEQ concentrations computed from chemical analyses were significantly lower than the bioassay-derived TEQ concentrations. In fact, in none of the samples, more than 14 % of the vitellogenin-inducing potency could be attributed to the substances (steroids, alkylphenols, bisphenol A, diethylstilbestrol) analyzed. A comparison of the endocrine disrupting potential of sediments extracted by the solvents acetone and methanol revealed lower biological effects for acetone-extracted samples. Possible reasons may be a masking of endocrine effects in acetone extracts by cytotoxicity, a low extraction efficiency of the solvent acetone, or anti-estrogen potencies of some extracted sediment compounds. Using a mass balance approach, the contribution of the compounds analyzed chemically (Chem-TEQs) to the total endocrine activity (Bio-TEQs) was calculated. Based on the very low detection limits, particularly of the steroids with their high TEF factors, results revealed that a calculation of the Chem-TEQs is associated with considerable scale inaccuracy: Whereas only 7-15 % of the biological effectiveness (Bio-TEQs) could be explained by endocrine substances identified above the detection limits, the assumption of concentrations slightly below the given detection limits would result in a significant over estimation (137-197 %) of the Bio-TEQs. Even the interassay variation of the dot blot assay with different fish donors for primary hepatocyte (factor 2 - 2.5) is relatively low, when compared to the large range of the Chem-TEQ concentrations (factor 20) obtained when applying different modes of calculation. Conclusions and Outlook Overall, only a minor portion of the endocrine activity detected by bioassays could be linked to compounds identified by chemical analysis. In vitro assays for assessment of endocrine activities are useful as sensitive integrating methods that provide quantitative estimates of the total activity of particular receptor-mediated responses. Although discrepancies may also result from different bioanalytical approaches, it is overall likely that bioanalytical and not chemical analytical approaches give the correct estimate of endocrine disrupting potencies in environmental samples. As a conclusion, assessment of endocrine disruption based on chemical analysis alone does not appear sufficient and further research into the spectrum of substances with potential endocrine activity as well as into additive or even synergistic effects in complex environmental samples is urgently needed.     

Cadmium in naturally-occurring water hyacinths

Water hyacinth [$\text{Eichhornia}$$\text{crassipes}$ (Mart.) Solms] is an effective fertillizer, mulch, soil amendment and fodder for cattle and sheep. The consequences of the ability of the plant to accumulate heavy metals needs consideration. Small and large water hyacinth ecotypes collected from two “rural” rivers in Florida, the Peace and Withalachoochee respectively, were examined for an accumulation of cadmium from the natural environment. Less than trace amounts (below limits of detection, 2.5ppb) were present. Water hyacinths tested for cadmium accumulation under laboratory conditions exhibited a pronounced ability to absorb and accumulate the metal. The roots contained 0.982 mg of the 2.0 mg cadmium presented to the plant. The distribution of the metal within the plant was 76.7% in the roots, 22.4% in the stems with the remainder in the leaves. Of the total cadmium presented to the plant, 80.8 ± 3.0% was recovered by the plant after 7 days, the mean generation time of the plant. With increasing urbanization, accumulation of cadmium by water hyacinths exists. It is either an asset or a potential hazard and needs to be appreciated.     

Flooding patterns of the Okavango Wetland in Botswana between 1972 and 2000

The inundated area of the Okavango Delta changes annually and interannually. The variability relates to regional precipitation over the catchment area in the Angolan highlands, and to local rainfall. The patterns of the wetland were captured using more than 3000 satellite images for the period 1972 to 2000, near daily NOAA AVHRR data for 1985-2000, and less frequent images of the Landsat sensors from 1972 onwards. One AVHRR image for every 10-day period was classified into land and water using an unsupervised classification method. Evaluation against Landsat TM and ERS2-ATSR data indicate an agreement of 89% for the size of estimated inundation area. Results show that the wetland area has varied between approximately 2450 km2 and 11400 km2 during the last 30 years.     

Exaggerated orientation scatter of nocturnal passerine migrants close to breeding grounds: comparisons between seasons and latitudes

Using tracking radars, we investigated the variability of flight directions of long-distance nocturnal passerine migrants across seasons (spring versus autumn migration) and sites at the southern (56° N) and northern (68° N) ends of the Scandinavian Peninsula (Lund versus Abisko). Whilst most migrants at Lund are on passage to and from breeding sites in Fennoscandia, the majority of the migrants at Abisko are close to their breeding sites, and migration at Abisko thus to a large degree reflects initial departure from breeding sites (autumn) or final approach to breeding destinations (spring). The radar data were used to test predictions about differences in orientation and wind drift effects between adult and juvenile birds (a large proportion of autumn migrants consists of juvenile birds on their first journey), between situations far away from or near the goals and between different phases of migration (initial departure, en route passage, final approach to goal). The concentrations (both total and within-night concentrations) of flight directions differed significantly between seasons as well as sites, with the highest concentration at Lund in spring (mean vector length of track directions, r = 0.79) and lowest at Abisko during spring (r = 0.35). Partial wind drift and partial compensation were recorded at Lund, with a similar effect size in spring and autumn, whilst possible wind drift effects at Abisko were obscured by the large directional scatter at this site. The results from Lund support the prediction that the high proportion of juveniles in autumn contributes to increase the directional scatter during this season, whilst there was no support for predictions of differential wind drift effects between seasons and situations with different goal distances. The most striking and surprising result was the exceedingly large scatter of flight directions at Abisko, particularly in spring. We suggest that such an exaggerated scatter may be associated with final approach orientation, where migrants reach their specific goals from all various directions by final navigation within a more wide-ranging goal region. The larger scatter of autumn flight directions at Abisko compared to Lund may be due to exploratory flights in variable directions being more common at initial departure from breeding sites than later during migratory passage. These surprising results highlight the importance of studying and analysing orientation during final approach to (and initial departure from) migratory goals for understanding the orientation systems of migratory birds.     

The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.