The Importance of Analysis Method for Breeding Bird Survey Population Trend Estimates

Population trends from the Breeding Bird Survey are widely used to focus conservation efforts on species thought to be in decline and to test preliminary hypotheses regarding the causes of these declines. A number of statistical methods have been used to estimate population trends, but there is no consensus as to which is the most reliable. We quantified differences in trend estimates or different analysis methods applied to the same subset of Breeding Bird Survey data. We estimated trends for 115 species in British Columbia using three analysis methods: U.S. National Biological Service route regression, Canadian Wildlife Service route regression, and nonparametric rank-trends analysis. Overall, the number of species estimated to be declining was similar among the three methods, but the number of statistically significant declines was not similar (15, 8, and 29 respectively). In addition, many differences existed among methods in the trend estimates assigned to individual species. Comparing the two route regression methods, Canadian Wildlife Service estimates had a greater absolute magnitude on average than those of the U.S. National Biological Service method. U.S. National Biological Service estimates were on average more positive than the Canadian Wildlife Service estimates when the respective agency's data selection criteria were applied separately. These results imply that our ability to detect population declines and to prioritize species of conservation concern depend strongly upon the analysis method used. This highlights the need for further research to determine how best to accurately estimate trends from the data. We suggest a method for evaluating the performance of the analysis methods by using simulated Breeding Bird Survey data.     

Process hazards review applied to the use of anhydrous ammonia in agriculture: an example of chemical process safety for small business

Process hazards review (PHR) techniques have generally been applied by large, sophisticated companies in the nuclear, aerospace, and chemical process industries. There remains, however, a large population of smaller distributors and consumers of hazardous materials which could benefit equally from the application of PHR. These consumers unfortunately are generally less sophisticated and individually lack the necessary resources required to apply such state-of-the-art safety techniques.

Where common processes can be identified, it is possible to conduct a more generic PHR that will provide a sound technical basis for recognizing and preventing the development of hazards wherever these processes are used. Some facility-specific issues will always need to be considered, but the existence of the generic PHR should make the conduct of a PHR by each facility considerably easier and less costly.

Researchers from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) contracted with DNV Technica Inc. to lead a hazard and operability study (HAZOP) of agricultural handling of anhydrous ammonia, from the receipt of ammonia at the retail distribution centre to the application of the ammonia by farmers to the fields. The multidisciplinary HAZOP team consisted of representatives from NIOSH, an agricultural chemical trade association, an ammonia producer, state ammonia facility inspectors, a retail distributor, and an equipment manufacturer. Several participants were part-time farmers with ammonia application experience.

Some specific aspects of applying the HAZOP technique in the context of this study, the findings obtained, and the plans to disseminate the important safety information developed during the course of the PHR are discussed. Finally, it is suggested that this approach could prove to be a useful addition to the product stewardship activities of chemical producers.     

GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF NORTH CAROLINA SANITARY LANDFILLS1

ABSTRACT: Ground and surface water quality monitoring data from 71 municipal sanitary landfills in North Carolina were analyzed to determine the nature and extent of current contamination problems and identify any common characteristics associated with this contamination. A total of 322 surface and 411 ground water quality records were analyzed using the SAS data system. Almost all the landfill records included inorganic and heavy metal analyses while approximately half of the records also included organic analyses by CC/MS. Our analysis indicates that landfills are having measurable impacts on ground and surface water quality, but these impacts may not be as severe as is commonly assumed. Statistically significant increases were detected in the average concentrations in ground water and downstream surface water samples when compared to upstream surface water samples. The largest percentage increases were observed for zinc, turbidity, total organic carbon, conductivity, total dissolved solids, and lead. Violations of ground water quality standards for heavy metals and hazardous organic compounds were detected at 53 percent of the landfills where adequate data existed. The moat common heavy metal violations were for lead (18 percent), chromium (18 percent), zinc (6 percent), cadmium (6 percent), and arsenic (6 percent) (percentage of landfills violating shown in parenthesis). The organic compounds that appear to pose the greatest threat to ground water are the chlorinated solvents (8 percent), petroleum derived hydrocarbons (8 percent), and pesticides (5 percent). A comparison of monitoring data from sanitary landfills and secondary wastewater treatment plants suggests that the concentrations of heavy metal and organic pollutants discharged to surface waters from these two sources are similar.     

Quantification of hydrochloric acid and particulate deposition resulting from space shuttle launches at John F. Kennedy space center,Florida, USA

Observations of damage to vegetation, acute reductions in surface water pH, and kills of small fish prompted the Biomedical Operations and Research Office at the John F. Kennedy Space Center to initiate intensive environmental evaluations of possible acute and long-term chronic impacts that may be produced by repeated launches of the space shuttle. An important step in this evaluation was the identification of deposition patterns and the quantification of ecosystem loading rates of exhaust constituents from the solid rocket motors (SRMs) in the area of the launch pad. These constituents are primarily aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃) and hydrochloric acid (HCl). During three launches of the space transportation system (STS-11, 13, and 14) up to 100 bulk deposition collectors, 83 mm in diameter containing 100 ml of deionized water, were deployed in a grid pattern covering 12.6 ha north of launch pad 39-A. Estimates of HCl and particulate deposition levels were made based on laboratory measurements of items entrained in the collectors. Captured particulates consisted of a variety of items including Al₂O₃, sand grains, sea shell fragments, paint chips, and other debris ablated from the launch pad surface by the initial thrust of the SRMs. Estimated ranges of HCl and particulate deposition in the study area were 0–127 g/m² and 0–246 g/m², respectively. Deposition patterns were highly influenced by wind speed and direction. These measurements indicate that, under certain meteorological conditions, up to 7.1 × 10³ kg of particulates and 3.4 × 10³ kg of HCl can be deposited to the near-field environment beyond the launch pad perimeter fence.     

Integrating forage,wildlife, water,and fish projections with timber projections at the regional level: A case study in southern United States

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion to planted pine.