A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

The influence of irradiance on the biochemical composition of three phytoplankton species and their nutritional value for larvae of the Pacific Oyster (Crassostrea gigas)

Three species of phytoplankton grown at high (HL) or low light (LL) were fed as saturating rations to laboratory-reared larval Crassostrea gigas. Larval C. gigas fed diets of HL grown Chaetoceros gracilis and HL grown Isochrysis aff. galbana grew faster than those fed LL grown cells of the same phytoplankton species. Faster growth of C. gigas larvae was consistently associated with increases in the percent composition of short chain saturated fatty acids (FA) 14:0+16:0 in the HL grown cells. There were no consistent and significant differences between HL and LL grown phytoplankton cells in their content of carbon, nitrogen, protein, lipid or carbohydrate. Intraspecific increases in percent composition of essential fatty acids (EFAs), 20:53 and 22:63, in the phytoplankton were not associated with improvements in the growth or survival of the oyster larvae. Oyster larvae fed diets of Phaeodactylum tricornutum with a relatively high proportion of EFAs grew more slowly than those fed C. gracilis. In this experiment the proportion of dietary EFA 20:53 was negatively correlated with oyster growth rates. The faster growing oyster larvae contained relatively more of the FAs 14:0+16:0 which may be useful as measures of larval oyster condition. After a diet of one phytoplankton species for ca. 10 d, oyster larvae acquired distinctive FA profiles resembling that of their phytoplankton prey.     

Book reviews

The Economics of Art and Culture: An American Perspective

James Heilbrun & Charles M. Gray

New York, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 378 pp., £14.95 pb

Building Cities that Work

Edmund Fowler

Montreal & Kingston, McGill‐Queen's University Press, 1992, 315 pp.

Interactive Decision Making: The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

Liping Fang, Keith W. Hipel & D. Marc Kilgour

New York, Wiley, 1993, 221 pp., £49.50

The Politics of Nature: Explorations in Green Political Theory

Andrew Dobson & Paul Lucardie (Eds)

London, Routledge, 1993, 240 pp. + xv, £37.50

Urban Transport in Asia: An Operational Agenda for the 1990s, World Bank

Technical Paper No. 224

Peter Midgley

Washington, DC, The World Bank, 1994, 98 pp.

Landscape Ecology: Theory and Application, 2nd edition

Zev Naveh & Arthur Lieberman

New York, Springer‐Verlag, £34.50     

A decade of recreation ratings for six silviculture treatments in Western Oregon

Managed forests are increasingly being used for recreation. As a result, foresters may be expected to tailor silvicultural treatments to accommodate specific recreation preferences. To better understand changes in hiking and camping quality in the years following a harvest, six sites on the Oregon State University's research forest were evaluated annually for 11 years. Multiple comparison and regression analyses were used to describe the data. Results show that recreation ratings generally improved over time; recreation ratings were related to but different from scenic ratings; and there were differences among recreation activities. Although several studies have previously examined recreation quality after harvest, we know of no other study that has tracked the ratings of individual harvest units through the early stages of stand regeneration.     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.     

Heavy metals in Jamaican surface soils

A regional survey of Jamaican surface soils has been conducted in which more than 200 samples were collected at a sample density of 1 per 64 km² across the island and analysed for total concentrations of 31 elements by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) analysis and atomic absorption spectrophotometry (AAS). The aim of the survey was to begin the construction of a high-precision geochemical database to provide information on elemental levels in soils for application to environmental studies, agriculture, and human and animal health. Results on the regional scale are presented for As, Cd, Cu, Hg and Pb. Although Jamaican surface soils are enriched in several heavy metals compared with world soil means and crustal abundances, lead is of particular importance at this stage because of its occurrence in residential areas. Except for Cu, the distribution maps of these elements are highly correlated with bauxite which in Jamaica is associated with white limestone geology and residualterra rossa soils.     

Soil microbial and faunal community responses to bt maize and insecticide in two soils

The effects of maize (Zea mays L.), genetically modified to express the Cry1Ab protein (Bt), and an insecticide on soil microbial and faunal communities were assessed in a glasshouse experiment. Soil for the experiment was taken from field sites where the same maize cultivars were grown to allow comparison between results under glasshouse conditions with those from field trials. Plants were grown in contrasting sandy loam and clay loam soils, half were sprayed with a pyrethroid insecticide (deltamethrin) and soil samples taken at the five-leaf stage, flowering, and maturity. The main effect on all measured parameters was that of soil type and there were no effects of Bt trait or insecticide on plant growth. The Bt trait resulted in more soil nematodes and protozoa (amoebae), whereas insecticide application increased plant Bt concentration and altered nematode community structure. The only significant effects on soil microbial community structure, microarthropods, and larvae of a nontarget root-feeding Dipteran, were due to soil type and plant growth stage. The results indicate that, although there were statistically significant effects of the Bt trait on soil populations, they were small. The relative magnitude of the effect could best be judged by comparison with the insecticide treatment, which was representative of current best practice. The Bt trait had no greater effect than the insecticide treatment. Results from this glasshouse experiment were in broad agreement with conclusions from field experiments using the same plant material grown in the same soils.     

The development of cryoprobe nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy for the rapid detection of organic contaminants in potable water

The detection of trace levels of a range of organic contaminants (including pesticides, toxins and an explosive) in potable water, using cryoprobe NMR spectroscopy with limited sample preparation and rapid acquisition times, is described. Emphasis is placed on the applicability of NMR spectroscopy for use in emergency scenarios as the unbiased nature of the technique facilitates the detection and characterization of unknown compounds at levels as low as 50 microg L(-1).     

Interaction of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with a monolayer of oleic acid at the air–water interface – A simple proxy for atmospheric aerosol

The reactions between atmospheric oxidants and organic amphiphiles at the air–water interface of an aerosol droplet may affect the size and critical supersaturation required for cloud droplet formation. We demonstrate that no reaction occurs between gaseous nitrogen dioxide (1000 ppm in air) and a monolayer of an insoluble amphiphile, oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid), at the air–water interface which removes material from the air–water interface. We present evidence that the NO₂ isomerises the cis-9-octadecenoic (oleic) acid to trans-9-octadecenoic (elaidic) acid. The study presented here is important for future and previous studies of (1) the reaction between the nitrate radical, NO₃, and thin organic films as NO₂ is usually present in high concentrations in these experimental systems and (2) the effect of NO₂ air pollution on the unsaturated fatty acids and lipids found at the air–liquid surface of human lung lining fluid.     

Benthic macrofaunal assemblages of the San Francisco Estuary and Delta, USA

The spatial and temporal distribution of macrobenthic assemblages in the San Francisco Estuary and Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis of 501 samples collected between 1994 and 2008. Five benthic assemblages were identified that were distributed primarily along the salinity gradient: (1) a polyhaline assemblage that inhabits the Central Bay, (2) a mesohaline assemblage that inhabits South Bay and San Pablo Bay, (3) a low-diversity oligohaline assemblage primarily in Suisun Bay, (4) a low-diversity sand assemblage that occurs at various locations throughout the Estuary, and (5) a tidal freshwater assemblage in the Delta. Most sites were classified within the same assemblage in different seasons and years, but a few sites switched assemblage designations in response to seasonal changes in salinity from freshwater inflows.