A flexible spatio-temporal model for air pollution with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates

The development of models that provide accurate spatio-temporal predictions of ambient air pollution at small spatial scales is of great importance for the assessment of potential health effects of air pollution. Here we present a spatio-temporal framework that predicts ambient air pollution by combining data from several different monitoring networks and deterministic air pollution model(s) with geographic information system covariates. The model presented in this paper has been implemented in an R package, SpatioTemporal, available on CRAN. The model is used by the EPA funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) to produce estimates of ambient air pollution; MESA Air uses the estimates to investigate the relationship between chronic exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In this paper we use the model to predict long-term average concentrations of \(\text {NO}_{x}\) in the Los Angeles area during a 10 year period. Predictions are based on measurements from the EPA Air Quality System, MESA Air specific monitoring, and output from a source dispersion model for traffic related air pollution (Caline3QHCR). Accuracy in predicting long-term average concentrations is evaluated using an elaborate cross-validation setup that accounts for a sparse spatio-temporal sampling pattern in the data, and adjusts for temporal effects. The predictive ability of the model is good with cross-validated \(R^2\) of approximately \(0.7\) at subject sites. Replacing four geographic covariate indicators of traffic density with the Caline3QHCR dispersion model output resulted in very similar prediction accuracy from a more parsimonious and more interpretable model. Adding traffic-related geographic covariates to the model that included Caline3QHCR did not further improve the prediction accuracy.     

Integrating Large Wood Jams into Hydraulic Models: Evaluating a Porous Plate Modeling Method

Large wood (LW) jams are key riverine habitat features that affect hydraulic processes and aquatic habitat. The hydraulic influence of LW jams is poorly understood due to the complexity of fluid dynamics around irregular, porous structures. Here we validated a method for two‐dimensional hydraulic modeling of porous LW jams using the open‐source modeling software Delft3D‐FLOW. We sampled 19 LW jams at three reaches across the Columbia River Basin in the United States. We used computer‐generated porous plates to represent LW jams in the modeling software and calibrated our modeling method by comparing model outputs to measured depths and velocities at validation points. We found that modeling outputs are error‐prone when LW jams are not represented. By representing LW jams as porous plates we reduced average velocity root mean square error (RMSE) values (i.e., improved model accuracy) by 42.8% and reduced average depth RMSE values by 5.2%. These differences impacted habitat suitability index modeling. We found a 15.1% increase in weighted useable area for juvenile steelhead at one test site when LW jams were simulated vs. when they were ignored. We investigated patterns in average RMSE improvements with varying jam size, bankfull obstruction, porosity, and structure type, and river complexity. We also identified research gaps related to field estimation of LW jam porosity and porous structure modeling methods.     

Development and Application of Urban High Temporal-Spatial Resolution Vehicle Emission Inventory Model and Decision Support System

This paper reports on the development and application of an urban high temporal-spatial resolution vehicle emission inventory model and decision support system based on the current situation in China and actual vehicle emission control requirements. The system incorporates a user-friendly modular architecture that integrates a vehicle emission model and a decision support platform and includes scenario analysis and visualisation capabilities. A bottom-up approach based on localised emission factors and actual on-road driving condition has been adopted to develop the system. As a case study of application and evaluation, an emission reduction effect analysis of the supposed low-emission zone (LEZ) policy in Beijing (2012) was conducted. According to the simulated results in the forms of tables, histograms and grid maps, the establishment of this LEZ had a definite effect on the emission reduction of various types of air pollutants, especially carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon. In the system, the simulation methodology for identifying environmental benefits brought by the LEZ policy could be used to assess other similar environmental policies. Through flexible modification of configuration values or input data variables, the efficacy of separate or joint policies could be quantifiably evaluated and graphically displayed.     

International Society for Prenatal Diagnosis 2022 DEBATE: There should be formal accreditation and ongoing quality assurance/review for units offering fetal therapy that includes public reporting of outcomes

The field of fetal therapy has so far escaped from formal accreditation and quality control. Despite that, current published evidence shows that outcomes of interventions in younger fetal therapy centers are similar to what is achieved in more experienced centers and outcomes of interventions have improved over time. The question however remains what is not being published and what should be the standard of care, given the lack of level 1 evidence from randomized controlled trials for many interventions. Formal collaborative networks such as NAFTnet and others allow for anonymized benchmarking of center outcomes, without publicly shaming (and financially punishing) underperforming centers. Large registries also allow for tracking of rare complications and may result in improved patient outcomes over time. Core outcome sets, which could serve as a basis for outcome reporting, are available for some conditions, but certainly not for all, resulting in communication difficulties between centers. Formal accreditation, quality control, and outcome reporting are hard to implement, expensive, and may result in decreasing access to care by pushing smaller centers out of the market. Despite the existing difficulties, international societies have committed to quality improvement, and fetal therapy programs are strongly recommended to participate in voluntary outcome tracking.     

Quantification of low levels of organochlorine pesticides using small volumes (<or=100 microl) of plasma of wild birds through gas chromatography negative chemical ionization mass spectrometry

A solid phase extraction and gas chromatography with negative chemical ionization mass spectrometry in scan mode (GC-NCI-MS) method was developed to identify and quantify for the first time low levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCs) in plasma samples of less than 100 microl from wild birds. The method detection limits ranged from 0.012 to 0.102 pg/microl and the method reporting limit from 0.036 to 0.307 pg/microl for alpha, gamma, beta and delta-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), heptachlor, aldrin, heptachlor epoxide, endosulfan I, 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (p,p'-DDE), dieldrin, endrin, endosulfan-II, endrin-aldehyde and endosulfan-sulfate. Pesticide levels in small serum samples from individual Falco sparverius, Sturnella neglecta, Mimus polyglottos and Columbina passerina were quantified. Concentrations ranged from not detected (n/d) to 204.9 pg/microl for some OC pesticides. All levels in the food web in and around cultivated areas showed the presence of pesticides notwithstanding the small areas for agriculture existing in the desert of Baja California peninsula.     

Bioaccumulation of trace elements in omnivorous amphibian larvae: implications for amphibian health and contaminant transport

Despite the influence that amphibians have on the flow of energy and nutrients in ecological systems, the role that amphibians play in transporting contaminants through food webs has received very little attention. This study was undertaken to investigate bioaccumulation of trace elements in amphibians relative to other small aquatic organisms in a contaminated wetland. We collected bullfrog larvae (Rana catesbeiana) along with three other species of small vertebrates and four species of invertebrates from a site contaminated with a wide array of trace elements and analyzed them for trace element concentrations and stable nitrogen and carbon isotope composition. We found that amphibian larvae accumulated the highest concentrations of most trace elements, possibly due to their feeding ecology. These results suggest that omnivorous amphibian larvae can serve as a critical link for trace element trophic transfer. Their propensity to accumulate trace elements may have important implications for amphibian health in contaminated environments and should be further investigated.