Modelling habitat conversion in miombo woodlands: insights from Tanzania

Understanding the drivers of natural habitat conversion is a major challenge, yet predicting where future losses may occur is crucial to preventing them. Here, we used Bayesian analysis to model spatio-temporal patterns of land-use/cover change in two protected areas designations and unclassified land in Tanzania using time-series satellite images. We further investigated the costs and benefits of preserving fragmenting habitat joining the two ecosystems over the next two decades. We reveal that habitat conversion is driven by human population, existing land-use systems and the road network. We also reveal the probability of habitat conversion to be higher in the least protected area category. Preservation of habitat linking the two ecosystems saving 1640 ha of land from conversion could store between 21,320 and 49,200 t of carbon in the next 20 years, with the potential for generating between US$ 85,280 and 131,200 assuming a REDD+ project is implemented.     

Channel Evolution Models as Predictors of Sediment Yield

This paper recounts our predictions of channel evolution of the Black Vermillion River (BVR) and sediment yields associated with the evolutionary sequence. Channel design parameters allowed for the prediction of stable channel form and coincident sediment yields. Measured erosion rates and basin‐specific bank erosion curves aided in prediction of the stream channel succession time frame. This understanding is critical in determining how and when to mitigate a myriad of instability consequences. The BVR drains approximately 1,062 km² in the glaciated region of Northeast Kansas. Once tallgrass prairie, the basin has been modified extensively for agricultural production. As such, channelization has shortened the river by nearly 26 km from pre‐European dimensions; shortening combined with the construction of numerous flow‐through structures have produced dramatic impacts on discharge and sediment dynamics. Nine stream reaches were established within three main tributaries of the BVR in 2007. Reaches averaged 490 m in length, were surveyed, and assessed for channel stability, while resurveys were conducted annually through 2010 to monitor change. This work illustrates the association of current stream state, in‐channel sediment contributions, and prediction of future erosion rates based on stream evolution informed by multiple models. Our findings suggest greater and more rapid sedimentation of a federal reservoir than has been predicted using standard sediment prediction methods.     

Improving the Evaluation of Conservation Programs

Abstract: The evaluation of conservation programs is rare but increasingly important in improving their effectiveness. Regular evaluations of conservation programs and the implementation of recommendations resulting from such assessments are infrequent because of resistance by participants and lack of funding. Evaluations may be internal or external, depending on the purpose of the review and how broadly it is focused. We strongly recommend external peer review of long-term complex conservation programs every 5 years, supported by more frequent (annual) internal reviews. Criteria for success must encompass both biological and social measures and include learning and the application of new knowledge to management. Evaluations must also go beyond monitoring to assess the value of the program. We emphasize the need to include the organization and function of a conservation program (the process) in any evaluation in addition to substantive criteria for success, which usually involve biological measures (numbers). A dysfunctional program organization and process can as effectively cripple a conservation effort as can a major biological catastrophe. We provide examples of different types of conservation program evaluations, including moderated workshops and case-study analysis, and provide advice on the logistics and organization of the review, emphasizing the importance of the evaluation process itself to a successful outcome. One important aspect of an evaluation is having an individual with leadership ability and considerable expertise to organize the format and oversee the review process itself. Second, it is essential at the outset to ensure agreement among the program participants and the review committee on the goals and objectives of the conservation program, what is to be evaluated, and the criteria for defining success. Finally, the best evaluations are inclusive and involve all participants and stakeholders.     

Distribution and ecotoxicity of chlorotriazines in the Scheldt Estuary (B-Nl)

As part of the Endis-Risks project, the current study describes the occurrence of the chlorotriazine pesticides atrazine, simazine and terbutylazine in water, sediment and suspended matter in the Scheldt estuary (B-Nl) from 2002 to 2005 (3 samplings a year, 8 sampling points). Atrazine was found at the highest concentrations, varying from 10 to 736 ng/l in water and from 5 up to 10 ng/g in suspended matter. Simazine and terbutylazine were detected at lower concentrations. Traces of the targeted pesticides were also detected in sediments, but these were below the limit of quantification. As part of an ecotoxicological assessment, we studied the potential effect of atrazine on molting of Neomysis integer (Crustacea:Mysidacea), a resident invertebrate of the Scheldt Estuary and a proposed test organism for the evaluation of endocrine disruption. Following chronic exposure ( approximately 3 weeks), atrazine did not significantly affect mysid molting at environmentally relevant concentrations (up to 1 microg/l).     

Maintaining high-volume, low-pressure surface-coating regulatory compliance using the U.s. Environmental Protection Agency's data quality objectives process

To effectively reduce the environmental compliance costs associated with meeting specific requirements under the Aerospace Manufacturing and Rework Facility's National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants rule, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Data Quality Objective (DQO) process has been proposed as a suitable framework for developing a scientifically defensible surface compliance monitoring program. By estimating the variability associated with the air cap pressure of high- volume, low-pressure (HVLP) surface-coating spray equipment, the number of monitoring samples necessary for an affected facility to claim compliance with a desired statistical confidence level was established. Using data taken from the pilot test facility, the DQO process indicated that the mean of at least 21 HVLP air cap pressure samples taken over the compliance period must be < or = 10 pounds per square inch (psig) gauge for the facility to claim regulatory compliance with 99.99% statistical confidence. Fewer compliance samples could be taken, but that decision would lead to a commensurate reduction in the compliance confidence level. Implementation of the DQO-based compliance sampling plan eliminates the need for an affected facility to sample all regulated HVLP surface-coating processes while still maintaining a high level of compliance assurance.     

Book reviews

ENGLISH STRUCTURE PLANNING

Eds: D. T. Cross and M. R. Bristow

Pion Ltd., London, 1983. £16.00.

AN INTRODUCTION TO URBAN RENEWAL

Michael S. Gibson and Michael J. Longstaff

London: Hutchinson, 1982. 384 pp.

INTEGRATED URBAN MODELS

S. H. Putman

Pion Ltd., 1983, 332 pp.

EXPLANATION PREDICTION AND PLANNING: THE LOWRY MODEL

M. T. Webber

Pion Ltd., London, 1984, 214 pp.

THE GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF METROPOLITAN AREAS IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

Alan Norton

Institute of Local Government Studies, University of Birmingham, 1983, 57 pp.

THE MANAGEMENT OF SEMI‐NATURAL WOODLAND

County Planning Officers’ Society (available from Hampshire County Planning Dept., price £2.00).