The stochastic demography of two coexisting male morphs

Abstract. If genetically distinct morphs coexist under a range of natural conditions, they should have equal long-run fitnesses across a wide range of different stochastic environments. In other words, the sequence and frequency of good and bad environments should not substantially impact long-run growth rates. When different morphs have contrasting life histories that vary with environmental conditions, however, it seems improbable that growth rates can be equivalent across a range of stochastic environments without invoking a strong stabilizing mechanism to explain their persistence. As yet, there has been no research characterizing the long-run stochastic growth rate (lambdaS) of different morphs across a wide range of stochastic environments. Assuming density independence, we show that the two genetic male morphs in the bulb mite (Rhizoglyphus robini-fighters, which are able to kill other mites, and benign scramblers-have similar lambdas in different Markovian environments (different simulated random sequences of good and bad habitats). Elasticity analyses revealed that Xs was most sensitive to perturbation of adult survival rate. A slight (biologically and statistically realistic) increase in scrambler adult survival equalized scrambler and fighter X,. The fitness equivalence of the two morphs suggests that stabilizing mechanisms, such as density or frequency dependence, required to maintain their coexistence, are weak. We advocate that stochastic demography can offer a powerful approach to identify and understand the circumstances under which genetic polymorphisms can be maintained in stochastic environments.     

Monitoring fluvial water chemistry for trend detection: hydrological variability masks trends in datasets covering fewer than 12 years

This paper sub-samples four 35 year water quality time series to consider the potential influence of short-term hydrological variability on process inference derived from short-term monitoring data. The data comprise two time series for nitrate (NO(3)-N) and two for DOC (using water colour as a surrogate). The four catchments were selected not only because of their long records, but also because the four catchments are very different: upland and lowland, agricultural and non-agricultural. Multiple linear regression is used to identify the trend and effects of rainfall and hydrological 'memory effects' over the full 35 years, and then a moving-window technique is used to subsample the series, using window widths of between 6 and 20 years. The results suggest that analyses of periods between six and eleven years are more influenced by local hydrological variability and therefore provide misleading results about long-term trends, whereas periods of longer than twelve years tend to be more representative of underlying system behaviour. This is significant: if such methods for analysing monitoring data were used to validate changes in catchment management, a monitoring period of less than 12 years might be insufficient to demonstrate change in the underlying system.     

Additive effects of aboveground polyphagous herbivores and soil feedback in native and range-expanding exotic plants

Plant biomass and plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground natural enemies. However, little is known about how the aboveground and belowground enemy effects may add up. We exposed 15 plant species to aboveground polyphagous insect herbivores and feedback effects from the soil community alone, as well as in combination. We envisaged three possibilities: additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effects of the aboveground and belowground enemies on plant biomass. In our analysis, we included native and phylogenetically related range-expanding exotic plant species, because exotic plants on average are less sensitive to aboveground herbivores and soil feedback than related natives. Thus, we examined if lower sensitivity of exotic plant species to enemies also alters aboveground-belowground interactions. In a greenhouse experiment, we exposed six exotic and nine native plant species to feedback from their own soil communities, aboveground herbivory by polyphagous insects, or a combination of soil feedback and aboveground insects and compared shoot and root biomass to control plants without aboveground and belowground enemies. We observed that for both native and range-expanding exotic plant species effects of insect herbivory aboveground and soil feedback added up linearly, instead of enforcing or counteracting each other. However, there was no correlation between the strength of aboveground herbivory and soil feedback. We conclude that effects of polyphagous aboveground herbivorous insects and soil feedback add up both in the case of native and related range-expanding exotic plant species, but that aboveground herbivory effects may not necessarily predict the strengths of soil feedback effects.     

Surfactant-induced changes in gravity fingering of water through a light oil

Gravity-driven preferential flow (fingering) can greatly affect how one fluid displaces another in the subsurface. We have studied the internal properties of these preferential flow paths for water, with and without surfactants, infiltrating into oil saturated porous media using synchrotron X-rays, and miniature tensiometers to characterize fluid content and pressure relationships. We also used a light transmission technique to visualize overall flow pattern. Capillary pressure and water content decrease behind the front, similar to fingers in air-dry sand, with quantitative differences for five different surfactants with surface tensions ranging from 4–21 g/s². Using unstable flow theory, the finger widths, capillary pressure drops within the fingers, finger tip lengths, and finger splitting dynamics were scaled successfully with interfacial tension, fluid density, and the contact angle using the fingers in air–water systems as the reference.     

Malthusian overfishing and efforts to overcome it on Kenyan coral reefs

This study examined trends along a gradient of fishing intensity in an artisanal coral reef fishery over a 10-year period along 75 km of Kenya's most populated coastline. As predicted by Malthusian scenarios, catch per unit effort (CPUE), mean trophic level, the functional diversity of fished taxa, and the diversity of gear declined, while total annual catch and catch variability increased along the fishing pressure gradient. The fishery was able to sustain high (approximately 16 Mg x km(-2) x yr(-1)) but variable yields at high fishing pressure due to the dominance of a few productive herbivorous fish species in the catch. The effect of two separate management strategies to overcome this Malthusian pattern was investigated: fisheries area closure and elimination of the dominant and most "competitive" gear. We found that sites within 5 km of the enforced closure showed significantly lower total catch and CPUE, but increased yield stability and trophic level of catch than predicted by regression models normalized for fishing effort. Sites that had excluded illegal beach seine use through active gear management exhibited increased total catch and CPUE. There was a strong interaction between closure and gear management, which indicates that, for closures to be effective at increasing catch, there must be simultaneous efforts at gear management around the periphery of the closures. We propose that Malthusian effects are responsible for the variation in gear and catch and that active management through reduced effort and reductions in the most competitive gear have the greatest potential to increase the functional and trophic diversity and per-person productivity.     

Physical and chemical changes during composting of wood chip-bedded and straw-bedded beef cattle feedlot manure

In the 1990s, restrictions on incineration encouraged the forest industry in western Canada to develop new uses for their wood residuals by product. One such use was as a replacement for cereal straw bedding in southern Alberta's beef cattle (Bos taurus) feedlot industry. However, use of carbon (C)-rich bedding, such as wood chips, had implications for subsequent composting of the feedlot manure, a practice that was being increasingly adopted. In a 3-yr study, we compared composting of wood chip-bedded manure (WBM) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) straw-bedded manure (SBM). There were no significant differences in temperature regimes of SBM and WBM, indicating similar rates of successful composting. Of 17 physical and chemical parameters, five showed significant (P < 0.10) differences due to bedding at the outset of composting (Day 0), and 11 showed significant differences at final sampling (Day 124). During composting (10 sampling times), seven parameters showed significant bedding effects, 16 showed significant time effects, and four showed a Bedding x Time interaction. Significantly lower (P < 0.10) losses of nitrogen (N) occurred with WBM (19%) compared with SBM (34%), which has positive implications for air quality and use as a soil amendment. Other advantages of WBM compost included significantly higher total C (333 vs. 210 kg Mg(-1) for SBM) and inorganic N (1.3 vs. 1.0 kg Mg(-1) for SBM) and significantly lower total phosphorus (4.5 vs. 5.3 kg Mg(-1) for SBM). Our results showed that wood chip bedding should not be a problem for subsequent composting of the manure after pen cleaning. In combination with other benefits, our findings should encourage the adoption of wood chips over straw as a bedding choice for southern Alberta feedlots.     

Repeatability,Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analyses of the BANCS Model Developed to Predict Annual Streambank Erosion Rates

Accelerated streambank erosion caused by channel instability can be the leading cause of sediment impairment of streams. Obtaining accurate streambank erosion rates for sediment budgeting and prioritizing mitigation efforts can be difficult and costly. One approach to quantifying streambank erosion rates is through the development and implementation of an empirically derived “Bank Assessment for Non‐point Source Consequences of Sediment” (BANCS) model. This study aims to improve the BANCS model application by evaluating repeatability between users and identifying sensitive and/or uncertain model inputs. Statistical analysis of streambank evaluations conducted by 10 different individuals suggests the implementation of the BANCS model may not be repeatable. This finding may be due to sensitive model inputs, such as streambank height and near‐bank stress level prediction method selection, and/or uncertain model inputs, such as bank material identification and the associated adjustment of erosion potential. Furthermore, it was found assessing streambanks as a group by obtaining a measure of central tendency from individual evaluations, as well as obtaining a higher level of training, may improve model implementation precision. Application of these suggestions may result in improved prediction of streambank erosion rates utilizing the BANCS model methodology.     

Economics of Nassella Tussock (Nassella trichotoma) control in New Zealand

This paper questions whether current control of the pasture weed nassella tussock (Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack. ex Arech) is worthwhile, and how management can be improved. A computer model is developed to simulate nassella tussock population growth, and to provide a basis for calculating economic effects. The existing policy objective of eradication is shown to be inappropriate for economic and practical reasons. Cost-benefit analysis indicates that current government control programmes yield positive net benefits at a 10% discount rate, under realistic population growth-rate assumptions. An economic threshold model confirms that control should be undertaken at current levels of infestation. An optimization model suggests that greater net benefits would be obtained with less frequent control operations than currently practiced.     

Closely associated theropod trackways from the Jurassic of Zimbabwe

Eighty-eight tracks of large theropod dinosaurs were found in the mid-Jurassic of Zimbabwe. Among the tracks, at least five adjacent trackways are recorded. The adjacent tracks were probably made by animals traveling as a group, given that they are in relatively close succession; that there are three overlapping tracks (among just 23) suggesting reasonably close associations of the animals; that all the tracks are apparently of the same ichnotaxon; that the preservational types of the tracks are similar; and that the tracks are all of animals traveling in one general direction closely associated in time (there are no returning tracks of the same animals or of those of other species; presence of such tracks would be highly probable if the tracks were made over a period of time of even several hours). Nearby, recently discovered giant sauropod tracks, the first in sub-Saharan Africa, indicate a realistic potential of predator/prey interactions between the two groups of dinosaurs.     

Multiple mating in a lekking bird: why do peahens mate with more than one male and with the same male more than once?

Summary Approximately 50% of marked peahens (Pavo cristatus) mate more than once with lek males. Some females mate with more than one male, others copulate repeatedly with the same male. The frequency of courtship also shows marked variation. Some females repeatedly engage males in courtship interactions after they have succesfully copulated with them. The likelihood of mating with more than one male increases if a female first mates with a non-preferred (unsuccessful male). There is a non-significant tendency for females to copulate with a more successful male when remating. Peahens may mate with a non-preferred male first if they do not encounter a successful male during their initial period of choice, perhaps because the most successful male on a lek was courting another female and/or was defended by another female. There are more aggressive interactions between females in front of preferred males. Preferred males receive more repetitive courtship behaviour and repeated matings. Dominant females are more likely to engage in repetitive courtship and matings. The number of times a female initiates courtship on any one day increases with the number of other females actively courting males at a lek site on that day. We suggest that there is competition amongst females for access to preferred males and that dominant females try to monopolise these males by repeatedly engaging them in courtship interactions. We discuss the implications of these observations for the idea that female may gain directly from mate choice in a species where males contribute nothing but gametes to their offspring. Correspondence to: M. Petrie at the present address