Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.     

The Effect of Altered Habitat on Nitrogen Metabolism in Some Free-Living and Symbiotic Relationships Involving Nitrogen Fixing Organisms

Citrulline, one of the forms in which fixed nitrogen is assimilated in free-living blue-green algae and additionally in the blue-green algae/cycad symbiosis in Macrozamia, is similarly assimilated in the nitrogen fixing root nodules of Alnus glutinosa. By investigating the localisation of ornithine carbamoyl transferase in both cases it has been shown that in these symbiotic systems the ornithine carbamoyl transferase is only active in host tissue. This suggests that the host exerts an influence on the assimilation of fixed nitrogen in the microsymbiont resulting in the blocking of the enzyme trans-carbamylase with the subsequent excretion of the fixed nitrogen as ammonia to the host for further assimilation. This is discussed in the light of work on nitrogen metabolism in other symbiotic relationships involving nitrogen fixing organisms, where the effect of altering the habitat of the micro-organism has in fact resulted in a change in its metabolism.     

Uptake of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in salt marsh plants Spartina alterniflora grown in contaminated sediments

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations were measured in Spartina alterniflora plants grown in pots of contaminated sediment, plants grown in native sediment at a marsh contaminated with up to 900 microg/g total PAHs, and from plants grown in uncontaminated control sediment. The roots and leaves of the plants were separated, cleaned, and analyzed for PAHs. PAH compounds were detected at up to 43 microg/g dry weight in the root tissue of plants grown in pots of contaminated soil. PAH compounds were detected at up to 0.2 microg/g in the leaves of plants grown in pots of contaminated soil. Concentrations less than 0.004 microg/g were detected in the leaves of plants grown at a reference site. Root concentration factor (RCF) values ranged from 0.009 to 0.97 in the potted plants, and from 0.004 to 0.31 at the contaminated marsh site. Stem concentration factor (SCF) values ranged from 0.00004 to 0.03 in the potted plants and 0.0002 to 0.04 at the contaminated marsh. No correlation was found between the RCF value and PAH compound or chemical properties such as logKOW. SCF values were higher for the lighter PAHs in the potted plants, but not in the plants collected from the contaminated marsh. PAH concentrations in the roots of the potted plants are strongly correlated with soil concentrations, but there is less correlation for the roots grown in natural sediments. Additional plants were grown directly in PAH-contaminated water and analyzed for alkylated PAH homologs. No difference was found in leaf PAH concentrations between plants grown in contaminated water and control plants.     

Uptake and metabolism of two amino acids by anaerobic microorganisms in four diverse salt-marsh soils

The anaerobic microbial uptake of alanine and aspartic acid was determined in 4 diverse salt-marsh soils (tall and short Spartina alterniflora, creek bank, and mud flat). Uptake in soil slurries was determined by the radioisotopic tracer technique at one substrate concentration (<250 pmoles cm^-3). Dissolved free alanine and aspartic acid concentrations in the interstitial nutrient pool ranged from approximately 1 to 500 pmoles cm^-3. In the short S. alterniflora soil, maximum microbial uptake of alanine was found at a depth of 10 cm (8.32 pmoles cm^-3 h^-1); in the tall S. alterniflora soil maximum uptake was at 20 cm (23.4 pmoles cm^-3 h^-1). The utilization of aspartic acid appeared constant over the depth interval investigated (0 to 60 cm). The turnover times of alanine and aspartic acid in the tall and short S. alterniflora soils ranged from 5 to 25 h and 40 to 100 h, respectively. The percent of the labeled alanine and aspartic acid taken up that was mineralized by tall and short s. alterniflora microbenthos ranged from 20 to 50% and 5 to 20%, respectively.     

Relationships between runoff and land degradation on non-cultivated land in the Middle Hills of Nepal

SUMMARY

Rainfall-surface water runoff relationships have been examined for 912 rainfall events during the 1992 and 1993 monsoon seasons on 15 erosion plots on a variety of non-cultivated land uses in the Middle Hills, Nepal. Vegetation cover and type examined ranged from grassland and relatively undisturbed mixed broadleaf forest to subtropical Sal forest, in various states of degradation, and bare ground. Runoff was frequently generated on most plots and often by relatively small rainfall amounts (less than 5 mm) and low rainfall intensities (3 mm/h). Ground cover and canopy cover were significant factors in determining amounts of runoff. Runoff coefficients ranged from 1–2% under grassland and mixed broadleaf forest to 57–64% on the bare sites. Coefficients for Sal forest were between these two extremes; specific values depended on the level of degradation induced by human activity. The most degraded forest sites experienced runoff coefficients of 33%. Ground cover beneath the trees, especially leaf litter, was more effective in reducing runoff than the amount of canopy cover. Canopy cover was more effective during the less intense storms but was ineffective when the rainfall intensity was high. The results suggest that a minimum ground cover of 60% will keep runoff to within 10% of total rainfall amounts for most normal monsoons in the Middle Hills. This will also reduce the risk of gullying and surface soil erosion. It is the nature of the forest that is important and not its total area. In the study area, although the total area under forest had not changed, some of the forest had become more degraded with a corresponding increase in mean runoff rates. Increased runoff can occur even if the area under forest increases. Estimates of levels of degradation based solely on changing forest areas are likely to be inaccurate.     

Comparative aspects of mountain land resources management and sustainability: Case studies from India and Canada

India and Canada share a common heritage in natural resources management. Both have a colonial background, settlers and indigenous peoples; there is a history of management agencies with utilitarian attitudes, and a history of treating public lands as commodities for commerce rather than as resources for local livelihoods. This historical context guided the overall goal of this study, which was policy development for the sustainable use of mountain environments. Interviews, workshops and seminars were held with local people and resource management professionals in a comparative case study in two regions; the Kullu area in Himachal Pradesh, India and the Arrow Lakes area in British Columbia, Canada. The paper is organized around two main objectives of the work relating to the successes and failures of mountain environment resource management policies and the development of criteria for assessing and monitoring sustainability in mountain environments, in particular, criteria for examining relevant crosscultural dimensions of sustainable development in these environments. By way of conclusion the paper considers further ways in which traditional resource policy development and implementation is being challenged by changing values and priorities; ecosystems management with people; and co-management and public participation.