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101.
102.
Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Tony Prato 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(1):47-60
Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem
to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and
the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate
change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker
can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy
sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies.
The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies
for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred
across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing
a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined
using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur
across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered. 相似文献
103.
104.
Robert C. Borden Walter J. Beckwith M. Tony Lieberman Naji Akladiss Steve R. Hill 《补救:环境净化治理成本、技术与工艺杂志》2007,17(3):5-19
EOS, or emulsified oil substrate, was used to stimulate anaerobic biodegradation of trichloroethene (TCE) and tetrachloroethene (PCE) at a former Army‐owned manufacturing facility located in the Piedmont area of North Carolina. Previous use of chlorinated solvents at the facility resulted in soil and groundwater impacts. Ten years of active remediation utilizing soil vacuum extraction and air sparging (SVE/AS) were largely ineffective in reducing the TCE/PCE plume. In 2002, the Army authorized preparation of an amended Remedial Action Plan (RAP) to evaluate in situ bioremediation methods to remediate TCE in groundwater. The RAP evaluated eight groundwater remediation technologies and recommended EOS as the preferred bioremediation alternative for the site. Eight wells were drilled within the 100 × 100 feet area believed to be the primary source area for the TCE plume. In a first injection phase, dilute EOS emulsion was injected into half of the wells. Distribution of the carbon substrate through the treatment zone was enhanced by pumping the four wells that were not injected and recirculating the extracted water through the injection wells. The process was repeated in a second phase that reversed the injection/extraction well pairs. Overall, 18,480 pounds of EOS were injected and 163,000 gallons of water were recirculated through the source area. Anaerobic groundwater conditions were observed shortly after injection with a corresponding decrease in both PCE and TCE concentrations. Dissolved oxygen, oxidation‐reduction potential, and sulfate concentrations also decreased after injection, while TCE‐degradation products, ferrous iron, and methane concentrations increased. The reduction in TCE allowed the Army to meet the groundwater remediation goals for the site. Approximately 18 months after injection, eight wells were innoculated with a commercially prepared dechlorinating culture (KB‐1) in an attempt to address lingering cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene (cis‐DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) that continued to be observed in some wells. Dehalococcoides populations increased slightly post‐bioaugmentation. Both cis‐DCE and VC continue to slowly decrease. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献
105.
In selecting six keywords from the environmental discourse the authors argue that language's 'double motivation' reveals a dialectical structure through which it simultaneously expresses both a utopian narrative and an ideologically driven myth of totality and consensus. The ambiguity of these keywords is of critical significance to all those involved in the environmental discourse, for without agreement on the meaning of commonly used concepts effective policy development is potentially disabled. The keywords we explore are 'community', 'sustainability', 'globalisation', 'diversity', 'democracy' and 'environment' itself. 相似文献
106.
Under the United States Oil Pollution Act of 1990, natural resource trustees are charged with assessing natural resource impacts
due to an oil spill and determining the type and amount of natural resource restoration that will compensate the public for
the impacts. Habitat equivalency analysis is a technique through which the impacts due to the spill and the benefits of restoration
are quantified; both are quantified as habitat resources and associated ecological services. The goal of the analysis is to
determine the amount of restoration such that the services lost are offset by services provided by restoration.
In this paper, we first describe the habitat equivalency analysis framework. We then present an oil spill case from coastal
Louisiana, USA, where the framework was applied to quantify resource impacts and determine the scale of restoration. In the
Louisiana case, the trustees assessed impacts for oiled salt marsh and direct mortality to finfish, shellfish, and birds.
The restoration project required planting salt-marsh vegetation in dredge material that was deposited on a barrier island.
Using the habitat equivalency analysis framework, it was determined that 7.5 ha of the dredge platform should be planted as
salt marsh. The planted hectares will benefit another 15.9 ha through vegetative spreading resulting in a total of 23.4 ha
that will be enhanced or restored as compensation for the natural resource impacts. 相似文献
107.
Costs and benefits of brood desertion in female kentish plovers,Charadrius alexandrinus 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Female kentish plovers Charadrius alexandrinus typically desert their broods after the chicks hatch, i.e. 1–4 weeks before the chicks fledge or become independent. In this paper we investigate the costs and benefits of desertion for females. Desertion incurs a cost for females: following desertion chick survival in broods is lower (0.95 +- 0.02 day–1) than before the female deserts (0.98 +- 0.01 day–1). We investigated several possible causes for reduced brood survival by comparing characteristics of broods before and after desertion (controlling for differences in brood age). After desertion males increased the time they spent foraging and they tended to reduce time spent brooding chicks. Increased mortality of chicks may occur in deserted broods because following desertion (1) males spend less time alert in vigilance behaviour than before desertion, (2) they attend the chicks from greater distances, and (3) they show greater distraction display distances (in response to human intruders). Growth or development of chicks, measured by weight gain and tarsus length, was not different before and after desertion. Females gain two potential benefits from desertion: (1) they may remate and produce a second brood within the same breeding season or (2) they may enhance their probability of surviving to breed in a subsequent season. At least 27% of female kentish plovers that deserted remated and renested in the same season in this study. In contrast, we found no evidence that brood desertion increased the survival of females: there was no difference in local survival rate (return rate) for females deserting before or after 6 days brood age. These results clearly demonstrate that female kentish plovers that desert their offspring prior to fledging incur costs, but we suggest that there is a trade-off with the potential benefits gained by remating and making a second breeding attempt in the same season. 相似文献
108.
In recent years, the so-called ‘resource curse’ syndrome has gained increasing currency. Growing evidence suggests that many African countries with significant natural wealth have actually reaped limited rewards, instead experiencing underdevelopment, corruption, political instability, and in some cases, violent conflict. In the small West African state of Sierra Leone, it has been suggested that diamonds played a key role in fuelling a brutal civil war during the 1990s, an issue that has given rise to a burgeoning literature on ‘blood diamonds’. However, as Sierra Leone emerges from a decade of destruction, other research suggests that diamonds could actually provide the impetus for post-war reconstruction. This paper explores the role of alluvial diamond mining in post-conflict Sierra Leone, focusing on two communities in the Eastern Province that were badly affected by the war. Drawing on field-based research conducted between 2002 and 2007, the paper considers the diamond mining situation in the context of broader development strategies in post-conflict reconstruction. It is argued that sustainable development can only be achieved if future policies are based on a detailed understanding of relationships between diamond mining and rural development at local, regional and national levels. 相似文献
109.
The evaluation of microbial responses to three in situ source removal remedial technologies—permanganate‐based in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), six‐phase heating (SPH), and steam injection (SI)—was performed at Cape Canaveral Air Station in Florida. The investigation stemmed from concerns that treatment processes could have a variety of effects on the indigenous biological activity, including reduced biodegradation rates and a long‐term disruption of community structure with respect to the stimulation of TCE (trichloroethylene) degraders. The investigation focused on the quantity of phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and its distribution to determine the immediate effect of each remedial technology on microbial abundance and community structure, and to establish how rapidly the microbial communities recovered. Comprehensive spatial and temporal PLFA screening data suggested that the technology applications did not significantly alter the site's microbial community structure. The ISCO was the only technology found to stimulate microbial abundance; however, the biomass returned to predemonstration values shortly after treatment ended. In general, no significant change in the microbial community composition was observed in the SPH or SI treatment areas, and even small changes returned to near initial conditions after the demonstrations. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献
110.
In selecting six keywords from the environmental discourse the authors argue that language's 'double motivation' reveals a dialectical structure through which it simultaneously expresses both a utopian narrative and an ideologically driven myth of totality and consensus. The ambiguity of these keywords is of critical significance to all those involved in the environmental discourse, for without agreement on the meaning of commonly used concepts effective policy development is potentially disabled. The keywords we explore are 'community', 'sustainability', 'globalisation', 'diversity', 'democracy' and 'environment' itself. 相似文献