Simulation of vegetation dynamics and management strategies on south Texas, semi-arid rangeland

In this paper, we describe a model designed to simulate seasonal dynamics of warm and cool season grasses and forbs, as well as the dynamics of woody plant succession through five seral stages, in each of nine different plant communities on the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge. The Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR) is located in the Gulf Coastal Prairies and Marshes ecoregion of Texas. The model utilizes and integrates data from a wide array of research projects that have occurred in south Texas and WWR. It is designed to investigate the effects of alternative livestock grazing programs and brush control practices, with particular emphasis on prescribed burning, the preferred treatment for brush on the WWR. We evaluated the model by simulating changes in the plant communities under historical (1974-2000) temperature, rainfall, livestock grazing rotation, and brush control regimes, and comparing simulation results to field data on herbaceous biomass and brush canopy cover collected on the WWR over the same period. We then used the model to simulate the effects of 13 alternative management schemes, under each of four weather regimes, over the next 25 years. We found that over the simulation period, years 1974-2000, the model does well in simulating the magnitude and seasonality of herbaceous biomass production and changes in percent brush canopy cover on the WWR. It also does well in simulating the effects of variations in cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control regimes on plant communities, thus providing insight into the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control on the overall productivity and state of woody plant succession on the WWR. Simulation of alternative management schemes suggests that brush canopy removal differs little between summer and winter prescribed burn treatments when precipitation remains near the long-term average, but during periods of low precipitation canopy removal is greater under winter prescribed burning. The model provides a useful tool to assist refuge personnel with developing long-term brush management and livestock grazing strategies.     

我国流域水生态完整性评价方法构建

流域水生态完整性评价是指通过对水生态系统中不同水生态指标(生物和非生物)的监测以及由数学方法综合形成的综合评价指数,来反映水生态系统完整性状况。近年来,世界各国水环境管理政策发生了变化,开始强调生态保护,重视水体的生态质量。中国现行的常规理化监测指标(如COD、氨氮、BOD5)很难满足水环境管理的需求,难以全面准确地反映水环境质量变化的趋势。因此,在借鉴欧美发达国家流域水生态完整性评价方法的基础上,结合中国目前监测现状以及流域水环境管理需求,构建了包括物理生境指标、理化指标、水生生物指标在内的流域水生态完整性监测与评价方法,以期为中国流域水质目标管理技术体系的业务化运行提供可资借鉴的技术支撑,实现从单一的化学指标监测转向综合的水生态系统监测,实现流域水生态完整性的监测与评价。     

升温速率对医疗垃圾热解机理的影响

用TGA-DTA差热失重联用分析仪研究升温速率对输液瓶、一次性医用手套、敷料内心和白鼠肌肉4种典型医疗垃圾热解过程的影响规律.结果表明:在其他试验条件都相同的情况下,随着升温速率的提高,热解反应起始温度、终止温度、峰温升高,反应区间ΔT变宽,发生最大热失重速率的温度也升高,热失重峰的峰高也随之增加;升温速率对热失重率的影响随医疗垃圾种类而不同,对较难分解的医疗垃圾（如敷料内心和白鼠肌肉等）影响大,对容易分解的医疗垃圾（如输液瓶和一次性医用手套等）影响较小.      

斜发沸石在废水处理中的应用研究进展

天然斜发沸石是一种廉价矿物,经改性后可有效去除废水中氨氮、有机物、重金属离子、砷及放射性物质,并可用作杀菌剂。文章简述了天然斜发沸石的主要改性技术,并着重论述了近年来天然斜发沸石及各种改性斜发沸石在废水处理中的应用研究动态。同时,展望了其应用前景,探讨了目前应用斜发沸石处理废水时仍亟待解决的一些问题。     

不同磷源及浓度对利玛原甲藻生长和产毒的影响研究

探讨了不同磷源条件下利玛原甲藻的生长情况,分析了碱性磷酸酶在营养盐利用方面的作用,对不同营养盐条件下腹泻性贝毒(diarrhetic shellfish poison,DSP)的合成情况进行了比较和分析.结果显示,以NaH2 PO4、β-甘油磷酸钠和ATP分别作为唯一磷源时,NaH2PO4组和ATP组最大生长速率(βms)差异不大,β-甘油磷酸钠组稍低;ATP组最大生物量(X)明显高于NaH2PO4组和β-甘油磷酸钠组.实验浓度范围内,β-甘油磷酸钠组碱性磷酸酶活性均比较低,而ATP组活性较高.NaH2PO4组因其浓度的变化而有较大的差异.浓度>2μmol/L时,活性比较低,<2 μmol/L时,活性明显增高.μ-甘油磷酸钠组大田软海绵酸(okadaic acid,OA)总含量和单位藻细胞OA含量最高,NaH2O4组次之,ATP组最低.这些结果表明,利玛原甲藻町吸收利用无机磷NaH2PO4和有机磷β-甘油磷酸钠及ATP.其中,NaH2PO4和ATP的营养价值基本等效,而β-甘油磷酸钠的营养价值较低.ATP较NaH2PO4和β-甘油磷酸钠更有利于维持利玛原甲藻的生长.利玛原甲藻可以直接利用β-甘油磷酸钠;而ATP则需要碱性磷酸酶水解后才能利用.利玛原甲藻毒素的合成与营养盐的形态有关,不同营养盐条件下DSP的合成不同.β-甘油磷酸钠为磷源时,DSP合成量最多.磷盐对DSP合成的影响与该磷盐条件下利玛原甲藻的生理状态有关.     

南黄海2007—2017年浮游植物群落结构及多样性变化

在2007-2017年秋季,利用专业海洋调查船对整个南黄海海域开展了5个航次的浮游植物调查。结果发现：调查海域共有浮游植物371种,隶属4门108属。其中硅藻门有56属237种,甲藻门有24属98种,硅藻和甲藻是组成南黄海海域浮游植物最主要的两大类群。主要优势种有裸甲藻（Gymnodinium sp.）、柔弱拟菱形藻（Nitz.delicatissima）、蓝隐藻（Chroomonas sp.）、菱形海线藻（Thalassionema nitzschioides）、锥状施克里普藻（Scrippsiella trochoidea）和环沟藻（Gyrodinium spp.）等。2007年以来,南黄海浮游植物种类数呈明显上升趋势。浮游植物细胞密度平均为1.96×10⁴个/L,年际变化较大。将调查结果与众多文献比对,共发现9种藻类为中国新记录藻种,其中有4种硅藻和5种甲藻。     

Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

兰州冬季大气污染来源分析

利用WRF(天气研究与预报模式)输出的高分辨率气象数据驱动HYSPLIT_4.9(混合单粒子拉格朗日轨迹模式),结合PSCF(潜在源贡献因子)和CWT(权重浓度轨迹分析)模拟研究复杂地形下兰州城市尺度大气污染物局地输送特征、潜在源区及其对空气质量的影响. 结果表明:2002—2008年影响兰州城区冬季12月空气质量的轨迹可分为5类,输送类型可分为城区内输送和城区外输送. 第1、3类轨迹出现频率均大于20%且污染轨迹出现频率均大于38%,是污染物的主要输送路径,对应潜在源区为兰州城关区东北部和榆中县东部,这2个源区对ρ(PM₁₀)的影响最大,对ρ(SO₂)的影响最小,对ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(SO₂)和ρ(NO₂)的贡献分别超过200、80和60 μg/m3. 来自榆中县的第4类轨迹和兰州西固区的第5类轨迹易造成大气重污染,而来自皋兰县的第2类轨迹属于清洁轨迹. 兰州冬季污染既受局地输送的影响,也与地面天气形势密切相关.      

我国县级地区生活垃圾焚烧设施环境社会风险分析及应对策略研究——基于31省份设施负荷率与网络舆情的分析

在政策支持和实际需求的驱动下,可能会导致县级地区垃圾焚烧项目迅速增多,且带来潜在的环境监管压力和环境社会风险,需要给予持续的特别关注,并对地方做好环境监管和风险管控的指导。本文基于全国精细化的生活垃圾焚烧处理设施、生活垃圾产生量、网络舆情等数据,通过构建泰森多边形等空间分析方法进行了焚烧处理设施的服务范围识别及负荷率计算,通过自然语言处理技术进行了关于生活垃圾焚烧处理设施的情感分析。在此基础上,基于焚烧处理设施的负荷率和负面舆情比例,对31个省份环境社会风险进行定量的评估分析并提出对策建议,一是平衡解决“缺口大”和“吃不饱”问题,合理规划布局县级地区生活垃圾焚烧处理设施;二是聚焦负面舆情高发领域、区域,积极防范县级地区生活垃圾焚烧处理设施环境社会风险。