GIS‐BASED HYIROLOGIC MODELING OF RIPARIAN AREAS: IMPLICATIONS FOR STREAM WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Riparian buffers have potential for reducing excess nutrient levels in surface water. Spatial variation in riparian buffer effectiveness is well recognized, yet researchers and managers still lack effective general tools for understanding the relevance of different hydrologic settings. We present several terrain‐based GIS models to predict spatial patterns of shallow, subsurface hydrologic flux and riparian hydrology. We then link predictions of riparian hydrology to patterns of nutrient export in order to demonstrate potential for augmenting the predictive power of land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps. Using predicted hydrology in addition to LUILC, we observed increases in the explained variation of nutrient exports from 290 sites across Lower Michigan. The results suggest that our hydrologic predictions relate more strongly to patterns of nutrient export than the presence or absence of wetland vegetation, and that in fact the influence of vegetative structure largely depends on its hydrologic context. Such GIS models are useful and complimentary tools for exploring the role of hydrologic routing in riparian ecosystem function and stream water quality. Modeling efforts that take a similar GIS approach to material transport might be used to further explore the causal implications of riparian buffers in heterogeneous watersheds.     

Thirty-year trends in suspended sediment in seven Lake Erie tributaries

Sediment is an important pollutant for Lake Erie and its tributaries as a carrier of other substances and as a pollutant in its own right. Environmental managers have called for major reductions in sediment loadings in Lake Erie tributaries. In this study, 30-yr (1975-2005) datasets with daily resolution are analyzed to identify and interpret trends in sediment concentrations and loads in major US tributaries to Lake Erie. The Maumee and Sandusky Rivers in agricultural northwest Ohio show continual decreases throughout this period, but the River Raisin shows increases, especially in the last decade. The urban and forested Cuyahoga River shows little trend before 2000 but shows increases since then. The mostly forested Grand River shows strong decreases before 1995, little change thereafter until the early 2000s, and then increases. In most cases, the greatest decreases or smallest increases, depending on the river, are associated with summer and fall and with low flow conditions, whereas the smallest decreases or greatest increases are associated with the spring and with high flow conditions. Analysis of concentration-flow relationships indicates that these changes are not due to weather but reflect positive and negative anthropogenic influences. Sediment decreases in the northwestern Ohio tributaries seem to reflect the successful use of agricultural practices to reduce erosion and prevent sediment loss. Opportunities for further reductions in sediment loads and concentrations lie in better management of sediment losses during winter and spring.     

Estimating baseline carbon emissions for the Eastern Panama Canal watershed

To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a de novo complex chromosomal rearrangement involving four chromosomes

A complex chromosome rearrangement, apparently a balanced translocation involving chromosomes 4,6, 15 and 16, was found in cultured cells of amniotic fluid from a 32–year-old primigravida who requested amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis because of a family history of mental retardation. Chromosome analysis of peripheral blood from both parents were normal. The couple was counselled for the prenatal diagnosis of this de novo complex translocation and, subsequently, elected to terminate the pregnancy. Post-mortem examination revealed a 23–week fetus with intrauterine growth retardation. The identical chromosome rearrangement was subsequently confirmed in cultured fibroblasts from skin and cord obtained from the abortus. To our knowledge, this is the first report where routine prenatal diagnosis revealed a fetus with a balanced complex chromosomal rearrangement involving four chromosomes of de novo origin.     

Alpha-fetoprotein and acetylcholinesterase in twins discordant for neural tube defect

Twins concordant for elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and discordant for neural tube defect (NTD) and sex are reported. A literature review reveals instances of termination of twin pregnancies with one normal and one abnormal fetus, partly based on concordant high AFP and positive AChE (although discordant on ultrasound examination). The levels of AFP and AChE in twin pregnancies are probably a function of the number of layers of fetal membranes separating twin sacs: dichorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of AFP; monochorionic, diamniotic membranes allow transfer of both AFP and AChE. Cautious interpretation of biochemical findings and reliance on high resolution ultrasonography are suggested.     

Exposure to heavy metals and infectious disease mortality in harbour porpoises from England and Wales

We investigate whether long-term exposure to heavy metals, including immunosuppressive metals like mercury (Hg), is associated with infectious disease in a wild cetacean. Post-mortem investigations on 86 harbour porpoises, Phocoena phocoena, found dead along the coasts of England and Wales revealed that 49 of the porpoises were healthy when they died as a consequence of physical trauma (most frequently entrapment in fishing gear). In contrast, 37 porpoises died of infectious diseases caused by parasitic, bacterial, fungal and viral pathogens (most frequently pneumonia caused by lungworm and bacterial infections). We found that mean liver concentrations of Hg, selenium (Se), the Hg:Se molar ratio, and zinc (Zn) were significantly higher in the propoises that died of infectious disease compared to healthy porpoises that died from physical trauma. Liver concentrations of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu) and chromium (Cr) did not differ between the two groups. Hg, Se, and the Hg:Se molar ratio were also positively correlated with age. The association between Zn concentration and disease status may result from Zn redistribution in response to infection. Further work is required to evaluate whether chronic exposure to Hg may have presented a toxic challenge to the porpoises that succumbed to infectious disease.     

Copper tolerance,uptake and accumulation by Phragmites australis

Copper (Cu) uptake and accumulation of five populations of Phragmites australis growing in two mine sites (Parys Mountain, Wales, UK and Plombières, Belgium) contaminated with Cu and three 'clean' sites (Felixstowe, UK; Wisbech, UK and Mai Po, Hong Kong) were studied under field and glasshouse conditions. Cu tolerances in these populations of seedlings raised from seeds collected from the above five sites were also studied under glasshouse conditions. Although concentrations of Cu in the plant tissues (leaves, stems, rhizomes and roots) of P. australis and the associated soils from the Cu-contaminated sites were significantly higher than those of the plant tissues and the soils collected in the clean sites, small differences were found between the two Cu-contaminated populations and the three clean populations when seedlings were grown in 0.1 and 0.5 microg ml(-1) Cu treatment solutions. In general, different populations of seedlings showed similar growth responses, metal uptake and indices of Cu tolerance when cultured in the same Cu treatment solution for 3 weeks. There was insufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that the Cu-contaminated populations have evolved to Cu-tolerant ecotypes.     

Environmentally-induced cadmium tolerance in the grass Holcuslanatus L.

This paper reports results of a study on cadmium tolerance in the grass $\text{Holcus}$$\text{lanatus}$ which suggest that tolerance is inducible and can be lost in transplanting plants to uncontaminated soils.     

Gene flow in house mice: Behavior in a population cage

Summary The social behavior of house mice captured from natural populations was studied in an enclosure. Six replicate experiments with observations totalling 344 h were done to contrast the behavior of outbreeders, individuals that have progeny by interdemic reproduction; inbreeders, individuals that have progeny by intrademic reproduction; and nonbreeders. The frequency of outbreeding was also determined.In each replicate, two male and three female commensal house mice, Mus musculus, homozygous for the same allele at the hemoglobin locus, Hbb ^s , were put in half of a population cage. A barrier separated this deme from another deme homozygous for the alternative allele, Hbb^d. The barrier was removed after a month and each experiment continued for a further two months with daily observations.In five of six experiments, the mice from both demes formed one social group and in the sixth experiment, the mice remained in their original demes. In two experiments, outbreeding occurred: females from one deme produced offspring by males from the other deme. In three experiments, inbreeding occurred: females produced offspring by males from the same deme. Soon after the demes had formed one social group in these three experiments, the remaining male in a deme was killed and the experiment terminated; females without a male readily join other demes. The pattern of breeding resulted in a genetically effective size, N _e , that was approximately half of the maximum N _e obtainable with random mating. The social organization of house mice, although structured and characterized by male territoriality, presents no major barrier to gene flow within populations.Affiliative (mount, allogroom, follow) and agonistic (fight, chase, attack) behavior occurring when the barrier was present had no predictive value in determining which mice would be outbreeders. With the barrier absent, outbreeders were the recipients of more affiliative behavior than inbreeders. Male outbreeders initiated more agonistic behavior than inbreeders. Outbreeders engaged in more interdemic affiliative behavior than inbreeders.Contribution no. 362 from the Department of Ecology and Evolution at SUNY, Stony Brook     

Conditional and unconditional estimators of population size

Estimators for the population sizes of animal species are similar to Horvitz-Thompson estimators — they involve dividing counts of detected animals by the probabilities of detection. Knowing detection probabilities for different subpopulations allows one to estimate each sub-population size with such an estimator, and to add the results for an estimator of the total population. In the case where the proportions of animals belonging to the different sub-populations are also known, this paper shows that using those proportions to arrive at a common average detection probability will, when used in conjunction with the total number of animals detected, result in a better estimator. We provide two examples where the inferior estimator may seem sensible.